A league 2nd division - the chat that just won't go away

Marquee
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This chat has spiked up on social and broadcast media recently.

A February 2016, 4,000 word, article  by Shaun Mooney at Leopold Method is a fantastic clear-eyed background summary.

http://leopoldmethod.com.au/the-restlessness-of-th...

I'll leave 2 tidbits here. Consume the whole article. You will be well fed.

Gallop also revealed a clause within the A-League participation agreement which:

“Expressly provide for the introduction by FFA of a promotion and relegation system for the A-League and furthermore that an A-League club’s continued participation in the A-League is subject to any such promotion and relegation system.”

and...

During the Victorian clubs’ stand-off over the NPL plan, a financial model presented showed that 94% of revenue was derived from three main sources – registration fees (68.1%), canteen (19.7%) and sponsorship (15.5%). Leopold Method has analysed the financial reports of various NPL clubs, and for most of the clubs, these revenue sources have barely changed since the introduction of the new competition, with some clubs deriving up to 80% of their revenue from registration fees. The clubs, the national and state federations have found it difficult to attract corporate sponsorship dollars for the NPL.

Marquee
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Geography really works against this. But also, how many A League sides have already gone bust? Auckland, Gold Coast, NQ - any more? We almost did, and the Jest, Mariners, and even Brisbane have all come close too. The model of promotion/relegation just doesn't account for the actual operating environment of the A League. In fact the A League exists in its franchise form because the old club model was unsustainable. 

It's nice to daydream about this idea but there just doesn't seem to be any way it could be viable in the foreseeable future.

Let's get the current setup working and look to expand to at least 16 A League sides before even thinking about a second tier.

JBoyd
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So, according to the WOFP, NZF have <20 years to join Asia or the Nix are kick from Aussie national comps. The article states that the WOFP has bought the FFA 20 years. At the conclusion of that period, when presumably AFC will begin threatening Oz with revoking it's membership, then FFA will have to actively look to introduce relegation. If the Nix licence is tedious now, there's now way it would work with promotion/relegation in a league of a seperate confederation.

This wouldn't be a problem if NZF was in Asia. FFA would just have to incorporate the NZFC into the NPL system. But there's no way NZF is joining Asia in the next 20 years. Putting geography aside, NZF can't even operate a fax machine, let alone send an email!

JBoyd
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Geography really works against this. But also, how many A League sides have already gone bust? Auckland, Gold Coast, NQ - any more? We almost did, and the Jest, Mariners, and even Brisbane have all come close too. The model of promotion/relegation just doesn't account for the actual operating environment of the A League. In fact the A League exists in its franchise form because the old club model was unsustainable. 

It's nice to daydream about this idea but there just doesn't seem to be any way it could be viable in the foreseeable future.

Let's get the current setup working and look to expand to at least 16 A League sides before even thinking about a second tier.

Technically, Jets did go bust. The Jets of this season is a different thing from last season, isn't it?

Marquee
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QBoyd wrote:

Geography really works against this. But also, how many A League sides have already gone bust? Auckland, Gold Coast, NQ - any more? We almost did, and the Jest, Mariners, and even Brisbane have all come close too. The model of promotion/relegation just doesn't account for the actual operating environment of the A League. In fact the A League exists in its franchise form because the old club model was unsustainable. 

It's nice to daydream about this idea but there just doesn't seem to be any way it could be viable in the foreseeable future.

Let's get the current setup working and look to expand to at least 16 A League sides before even thinking about a second tier.

Technically, Jets did go bust. The Jets of this season is a different thing from last season, isn't it?

Yeah pretty much. The club still exists though, as opposed to the other 3 who are no longer with us. But yeah, the point is that Australia can barely sustain 9 fully professional football clubs at a national level (plus one in NZ) so how would relegation work? 
JBoyd
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QBoyd wrote:

Geography really works against this. But also, how many A League sides have already gone bust? Auckland, Gold Coast, NQ - any more? We almost did, and the Jest, Mariners, and even Brisbane have all come close too. The model of promotion/relegation just doesn't account for the actual operating environment of the A League. In fact the A League exists in its franchise form because the old club model was unsustainable. 

It's nice to daydream about this idea but there just doesn't seem to be any way it could be viable in the foreseeable future.

Let's get the current setup working and look to expand to at least 16 A League sides before even thinking about a second tier.

Technically, Jets did go bust. The Jets of this season is a different thing from last season, isn't it?

Yeah pretty much. The club still exists though, as opposed to the other 3 who are no longer with us. But yeah, the point is that Australia can barely sustain 9 fully professional football clubs at a national level (plus one in NZ) so how would relegation work? 

It won't. There are still places in Oz that could support pro football, given the same conditions and safety nets as the other franchises (Canberra, Wollongong) but a professional second tier won't be viable for a long time, and trying to go from semi-pro to pro on the level of the A-League is an absurd proposition. Not that the A-League would be sustainable in its current form with promotion/relegation. Salary cap would have to go, and then you'd see the elitism and seen in the BPL, where (usually) only money talks and clubs are often relegated straight back down.

Marquee
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Adelaide was close as well if rumors are correct.

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This weekend the NSW NPL is celebrating HERITAGE ROUND. All the PR stories are about past glories - but none allude to their current and future aspirations. FFA knows they needs these clubs, but won't allow them to flourish - as they are intent on keeping it a closed system for as long as they can.

JBoyd
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Global Game wrote:

This weekend the NSW NPL is celebrating HERITAGE ROUND. All the PR stories are about past glories - but none allude to their current and future aspirations. FFA knows they needs these clubs, but won't allow them to flourish - as they are intent on keeping it a closed system for as long as they can.

I feel a bit sad saying this, but it's best for us if they aren't allowed to flourish.

In saying that, I reckon they should've let South Melbourne take over Heart.

First Team Squad
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I can't believe otherwise seemingly intelligent people keep on bringing this up - there is not enough money, fans or even players of a high enough quality to justify a promotion and relegation system in Australian football and there never will be. An A-league club would not survive a demotion so there would never be any investment, the whole thing would be a huge downward money sucking spiral.

The best way to create engagement from grassroots supporters... invest in youth and player development at the lower levels to develop realistic pathways for players to get signed by A-league teams. What loyal fan wouldn't want to see their local star perform in a fully professional environment after coming up through the clubs age-group system?

This requires sustainable growth at the top level to increase the number of teams and therefore number of roster spots available, and not going after ridiculous fairy-tale ideals such as promotion and relegation for seemingly no reason other than because that's how it's done in other countries.

JBoyd
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djtim3000 wrote:

I can't believe otherwise seemingly intelligent people keep on bringing this up - there is not enough money, fans or even players of a high enough quality to justify a promotion and relegation system in Australian football and there never will be. An A-league club would not survive a demotion so there would never be any investment, the whole thing would be a huge downward money sucking spiral.

The best way to create engagement from grassroots supporters... invest in youth and player development at the lower levels to develop realistic pathways for players to get signed by A-league teams. What loyal fan wouldn't want to see their local star perform in a fully professional environment after coming up through the clubs age-group system?

This requires sustainable growth at the top level to increase the number of teams and therefore number of roster spots available, and not going after ridiculous fairy-tale ideals such as promotion and relegation for seemingly no reason other than because that's how it's done in other countries.

The problem is people can't stop thinking about it. In Australia a good chunk of the football fans are expats from countries with these systems, or are old enough to remember their pre-franchise clubs. Naturally the clubs themselves want to progress and because FFA has to keep them happy, they can't say it won't happen, even if they feel it isn't possible.

RR
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Blew.2 wrote:

We are not going away
RR
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Woof Woof
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Good to see that AAFC is fully cognisant of the position the game is in in Australia.

Legend
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The Tee Dubs sausage sizzle (with onions) seems the perfect template for funding the 2nd tier. Idea to be submitted as a 30 page document/power point with photos. CCM giant sauce bottles (with real sauce) at all stadia.

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coochiee wrote:

The Tee Dubs sausage sizzle (with onions) 

I'm there.

RR
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el grapadura wrote:

Good to see that AAFC is fully cognisant of the position the game is in in Australia.

Ah yes but these are real clubs .... with pokies.

Atm, it is just 30 teams getting together to decide the framework for a NSD. So just another football committee

Legend
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60 page report released earlier this week.

Reading this SBS article, you would have to say the prospect of a 2nd tier working out, seems a bit more feasible than earlier news on the idea. 

Wonder if ACFC was invited at all into these discussions. Presume not, especially when travel is already touted as the biggest cost. But the Warriors have at times operated their reserve team in the NSW local league comp, so kind of a precedent. 

But imagine those 30 odd NPL clubs clambouring for 12-16 spots in a 2nd division, wouldn't allow a NZ team in at all, even if ACFC, Auckland United or whoever were interested.

https://theworldgame.sbs.com.au/2022-vision-aafc-l...

Copied some excepts below that caught my eye.

Describing their proposals as "affordable and feasible", the AAFC estimate that the price of running a second tier - which has been given the working title of 'The Championship' by the group - would reach up to $3.3 million.

Participating clubs, per the report, would be required to pay an annual participation fee of $200,000 on top of an annual budget of between $850,000 and $1.6 million.

Significantly lower than operating budgets in the A-League, the AAFC believe this figure to be eminently achievable, citing that some existing NPL clubs already operate on budgets of up to $950,000.

Under the plans, players would initially be semi-professional, with the intention that clubs would seek to rapidly professionalise once viable.

The 12-team, 22-round national competition is estimated to generate $1.45 million in transportation costs (roughly $120,000 per club) and a targeted 16-team, 30-round competition will incur $2.62 million in travel expenses (around $165,000 per club).

Teams seeking entry to the competition - the 32 clubs that contributed to the report, not necessarily the pool that the AAFC envision initial NSD competitors being drawn from - would have to meet strict entry criteria.

Tapped as a 12-team competition at its birth, the AAFC envision the competition expanding to 16 teams via promotion from the NPL as soon as possible, preferably within the first four years.

Full promotion and relegation, the former contingent on minimum requirements being met, would then be introduced in the NPL.

Promotion and relegation in the A-League is not a formal feature of the proposal, though 2028 is mentioned as a hypothetical date it could be pursued in the report; placed within a broader vision of the league's introduction being an almost complete success.

The AAFC is now expected to begin a consultation process with the game's various stakeholders before finalising their proposals, with an April 2 target date for completion.

It will then be presented to the board of Football Australia - the governing body ultimately controlling the timing and structure of any prospective NSD.

"This report advances a national second-tier model, after considering available options, which is financially viable and, more importantly, financially responsible," Galatas added.

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RR
yet people think promotion and relegation is viable. The difference between even a $2.5 million operating budget and an a league team is massive. At the start of the pandemic when the teams were struggling, it was said that a league budgets were $10-15 million per season.
Legend
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A retweet of a RR tweet.
So A2 League to be a winter comp?




RR
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Opinion Privileges revoked
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First read through suggests it'll be a "closed" 10-16 team league without pro/rel to start with. Off to the InsideSport forums to watch how the South Melbourne tragics are reacting

ETA: cautiously positive so far. Something I missed is that the new league will be fully pro, which might limit how many clubs are actually up to it (maybe ACFC should apply, lol)
Legend
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it's a start, get the second division running well and then introduce promotion/relegation.
Legend
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Wonder if this means ALM expansion is off the table for awhile?
Legend
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could do both if they weer adventurous, but also could use the 2nd division to incresae the ALM numbers with promotion only for a couple of years.
Promotion/Relegation in a 12 team league with 6 teams making the finals seems icky. Need 18 at least.
Legend
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theprof
could do both if they weer adventurous, but also could use the 2nd division to incresae the ALM numbers with promotion only for a couple of years.
Promotion/Relegation in a 12 team league with 6 teams making the finals seems icky. Need 18 at least.

I imagine pro/rel would be years away as the ALM budgets will be higher, and you'd want all the 2nd tier teams to first so signs of stability.

Plus the existing ALM clubs and maybe APL will hate the thought of relegation, so good luck getting them to agree even with some type of parachute payments.

It maybe that pro/rel never happens and you sort of get a USA model, where USL (2nd tier) clubs or completely new franchises apply to join the MLS (1st tier) for expansion.

Opinion Privileges revoked
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Meanwhile, reaction on Twitter is much more negative: "being fully pro will drive clubs bankrupt", "they should fix the A League rather than starting a new comp" etc.
Legend
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there;s aways going to be the anti-whatver crowds, they may have a point - fixing the aleague first - but what does that mean? Maybe creating a second division and getting new fans engaged is how you fix the a-league? Especially with the potential of promotion in the future.
Legend
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Perhaps the finals series would then morph into a double division knockout cup? Which would be cool. Promotion, relegation and two cup competitions. But it would need some serious transport sponsorship.

On the other hand it’s guna take a lot, a lot of local involvement and investment to bump up fan interest. 
RR
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Whoops, put these in the wrong thread.




Honestly can't see a Western Aussie side wanting to join the initial NSD, they will sit back and see what the finances look like for clubs first.
Legend
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Think there was some talk of the NSD having regional Conferences, at least for some of the season. 

WA/SA/VIC/TAS and then NSW/QLD to try save travel costs. But for any WA team(s) the travel savings would be pretty minimal.
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QLD/Federal Govts are to spend $7Billion! on upgrading stadia & infrastructure before 2032 Brisbane Olympics.

That will include a few football grounds around South East QLD. Sunshine Coast Stadium (which has already hosted a heap of NRL games), just down the road from where I currently am, will end up with a 16,500 capacity ground. Should be some state of the art stadia & training facilities, as part of the huge spend.

https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/qld-govt-announces-7-billion-deal-to-upgrade-stadiums-for-2032-brisbane-olympics/video/8d045468e45f9b95f586ea496e919e82
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