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History for siac

New Zealand Men's U-20s

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Posted May 23, 2023 20:44 · last edited May 23, 2023 20:50

lthomas20

siac

Certainly take the point before the match, but conceeding in injury time after previously been up 2-0 is dissapointing. We likely still make the last 16, but if we lose to Argentina (as is probable) it would be as one of the 4/6 best 3rd place qualifer and would play a group winner instead of a team who gets lower in their group. Also means we can't rest best players against Argentina as much, as now goal difference could matter for the best 3rd place spot.

I haven't run the sims/maths, but I'm pretty sure win and a draw should likely be enough to make the 16 though regardless of gd.

Not necessarily, we could come 2nd in the group with 4pts.

If Guatemala and Uzbek draw yeah we still get 2nd even if we lose vs Argentina (assuming Guatemala loses to Argentina today), but I think it's likely Uzbek will win that one (and we will lose to Argentina). Games both start 9am (NZT) on Saturday.

Assuming Argentina wins their last 2 matches, if Uzbek wins vs Guat there will be countbacks for 2nd spot (which at this stage they would hold the upper hand for 2nd spot because they only lost to Arg by 1, if we also lose by 1 it gets more complicated than I can be bothered writing out - pretty much it would come down to goals scored in the last game).

Previous versions

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Unknown editor edited May 23, 2023 20:50

lthomas20

siac

Certainly take the point before the match, but conceeding in injury time after previously been up 2-0 is dissapointing. We likely still make the last 16, but if we lose to Argentina (as is probable) it would be as one of the 4/6 best 3rd place qualifer and would play a group winner instead of a team who gets lower in their group. Also means we can't rest best players against Argentina as much, as now goal difference could matter for the best 3rd place spot.

I haven't run the sims/maths, but I'm pretty sure win and a draw should likely be enough to make the 16 though regardless of gd.

Not necessarily, we could come 2nd in the group with 4pts.

If Guatemala and Uzbek draw yeah we still get 2nd even if we lose vs Argentina (assuming Guatemala loses to Argentina today), but I think it's likely Uzbek will win that one (and we will lose to Argentina). Games both start 9am (NZT) on Saturday.

Assuming Argentina wins their last 2 matches, if Uzbek wins vs Guat there will be countbacks for 2nd spot (which at this stage they would hold the upper hand for 2nd spot because they only lost to Arg by 1, if we also lose by 1 it gets more complicated than I can be bothered writing out!).

Unknown editor edited May 23, 2023 20:47

lthomas20

siac

Certainly take the point before the match, but conceeding in injury time after previously been up 2-0 is dissapointing. We likely still make the last 16, but if we lose to Argentina (as is probable) it would be as one of the 4/6 best 3rd place qualifer and would play a group winner instead of a team who gets lower in their group. Also means we can't rest best players against Argentina as much, as now goal difference could matter for the best 3rd place spot.

I haven't run the sims/maths, but I'm pretty sure win and a draw should likely be enough to make the 16 though regardless of gd.

Not necessarily, we could come 2nd in the group with 4pts.

If Guatemala and Uzbek draw yeah we still get 2nd even if we lose vs Argentina (assuming Guatemala loses to Argentina today), but I think it's likely Uzbek will win that one (and we will lose to Argentina). Games both start 9am (NZT) on Saturday.