COVID comparing

Marquee
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Ryan
2ndBest
Makes you glad our moronic section of the population is pretty small in comparison. 
Unfortunately it seems to be growing. 
 
Apparently 20 people protesting outside a vaccination clinic in New Plymouth today.
And outside Taita College this morning. So so bad. Kids are easily impressionable and should not be subject to fear mongering like that. You don't want your kid to be vaccinated? That's your call (have fun discussing it with them) but there's no need to stage a protest and influence others. I read a lot of US news and honestly sometimes I feel that if this Pandemic was truly orchestrated by shape shifting lizard elites, their only aim is to increase the average IQ of the pupulation. Of course I don't mean that every person to die from covid is an idiot - far from it - but that a lot of those 'unmasked and unafraid' folks don't seem to be able to grasp how serious the risks are. 
The tragic thing of course being that they spread the virus to a lot of innocent people in the meantime. 
Marquee
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Siac
Getting Vaxed is great and all, but from a bubble with Aussie perspective I don't see how it helps much. If I understand correctly (and correct me if I'm wrong) Delta is still very contagious even for vaccinated people, what the vaccine mostly does is make it's effects MUCH less likely to be severe/fatal when you do get it, rather than meaning you aren't going to catch it.

So if we have very low case numbers, letting in Australians with higher case numbers (assuming that stays the same) isn't a good idea, even if the people coming are vaccinated.

Coochiee
Basically you are wrong. Go and do some reading on effectiveness of the vaccines in stopping transmission. 

And if Aussie gets 90% if it’s age 12 plus popn double vaccinated, in conjunction with mask wearing and other continuing restrictions etc they stand a reasonable chance of reducing the current case numbers. Even once lockdowns end. That optimistic view improves further if vaccinations for kids younger than 12 become available

Siac
Any reading you would recommend? I have done a little, but as a non scientist, it's not always easy to know where to find data or how to interpret it. I have read several articles on mainstream media websites (which I'm sure aren't the best place to get info) saying that the viral load is still very high and just as transmissible in vaccinated people. For example:
this one on Forbes.

Just so we are clear, I am very pro vaccine (had my 2nd jab today actually!), but my understanding is that its main protection is in limiting the severity of the virus if you get infected, but doesn't necessarily make a big difference in terms of catching it or spreading it to others.


Coochiee
Moved from Season 2021/22 thread. Aus Govt video below (is from May this year).
https://www.health.gov.au/news/top-3-covid-19-vaccine-questions-vaccines-and-stopping-transmission-virus-mutation-and-people-who-want-to-wait-for-vaccination-0

I didn't see Siac's comments as anti vax, just disagree that with the comment that people getting vaccinated doesn't help much from a TT bubble perspective. Covid case numbers are now dropping in NSW, and only thing that has changed is more people vaccinated daily. R number now below 1. Keeping it below 1, when current lockdown restrictions are eased will be the new challenge.

NSW adult popn (age 16 & above) now at 84% single dose, they are vaccinating about 0.5% of their adult popn daily at the moment. Yes that will soon tail off, but seems a real good chance will hit close to 90% double vaccinated sometime December. 12-15 age bracket now also being jabbed at a fast rate. 90% double vaccinated popn above age 12 would be a fanastic ahievement. Think Portugal currently has highest fully vaccinated rate in the world at 84% of it's popn.

You would think that NZ and other Aussie states can achieve same high vaccination rates as NSW. Sure as they have had Covid & deaths in NSW, so the motivation has been higher (plus higher vaccine supplies), but the pysche/mentality of the 2 countries is pretty similar. High trust in the govt, health experts etc etc.

Lots of modelling data I understand that will be lot less Covid in the community at a 90% vaccination rate, as opposed to the rates 65-70% that you have in likes of USA, UK etc. 

So really optimstic that we can end up in a far better situation than that political basket case the US, and others like the UK with lower vaccination rates. I can see both AUS & NZ at 85% fully vaccinated by year end (age 12 & above), and TT bubble (for fully vaccinated travellers) opening definitely on the agenda.

Nix fans should be optimistic about having their team home in the New Year.

Legend
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as may said in the other thread - NZ's delay in starting vaxing wasnt due to a lax approach, more a global approach to  a pandemic, we ordered plenty of supply at a cost that was acceptable, unlike Israel we didnt call Pfiezer 40x and offer stupid money to control vaccines. Our elimination response put us in a good place to no need the vaccine until now. So, yeah, we received our vaccines slower than others but we didnt need them. Now we are at 30+% fully vaxxed with almost 80% in Auckland with one dose. Aussie are very similar and they've been doing it for longer, plus they have massive outbreaks. Your political viewpoint will generally colour what you think of the response of each country, but from a health perspective we have lost far less lives and had far less people infected with covid than any of the countries we are compared too. Not just on pure numbers but on a per capita basis. No vax is 100% effective, Pfiezer gives us a really high chance of not getting sick if exposed, it also reduces our chance of spreading the illness. This means that if vaxxed we should be able to travel freely provided we can test negative and follow the protocols.
Both Aus and NZ should have reached the 80% fully vaxxed position by November, we are hoping to achieve 90% soon after that. Fingers crossed this means the a-league goes back to "normal". 
Marquee
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theprof
as may said in the other thread - NZ's delay in starting vaxing wasnt due to a lax approach, more a global approach to  a pandemic, we ordered plenty of supply at a cost that was acceptable, unlike Israel we didnt call Pfiezer 40x and offer stupid money to control vaccines. Our elimination response put us in a good place to no need the vaccine until now. So, yeah, we received our vaccines slower than others but we didnt need them. Now we are at 30+% fully vaxxed with almost 80% in Auckland with one dose. Aussie are very similar and they've been doing it for longer, plus they have massive outbreaks. Your political viewpoint will generally colour what you think of the response of each country, but from a health perspective we have lost far less lives and had far less people infected with covid than any of the countries we are compared too. Not just on pure numbers but on a per capita basis. No vax is 100% effective, Pfiezer gives us a really high chance of not getting sick if exposed, it also reduces our chance of spreading the illness. This means that if vaxxed we should be able to travel freely provided we can test negative and follow the protocols.
Both Aus and NZ should have reached the 80% fully vaxxed position by November, we are hoping to achieve 90% soon after that. Fingers crossed this means the a-league goes back to "normal". 
Interestingly with the Israel thing, apparently Pfizer told us that paying more will not push you up the queue--which means we inquired about it. The claim is that Israel paid double per does of what we paid because it ordered late, not to expedite delivery. The expedited delivery was, apparently, because Israel agreed to give Pfizer access to a lot of data (including personal data of its citizens), which had privacy advocates in the country up in arms. This was attractive to Pfizer because it meant that they'd get a large scale trial (of around 9 million people) to understand the efficacy, side effects, and logistics of the vaccine.

The other interesting thing is we've got a booster shot plan, and have bought up millions of doses of novavax to do it (as the research suggests that having a different vaccine for the booster has a better immune response than using the same vaccine), when other countries who vaccinated much quicker than us are still trying to figure out if they're going to do boosters at all, or are just talking about doing it for those at risk. That seems proactive to me.
Marquee
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NSW is now at 85%, and ACT 86% single dose for adult popn (16 & above). These are very encouraging stats and yes show that Aus and NZ should both hopefully get to 90% adult (even above age 12) popn fully vaccinated sometime in December. And why not even aim for greater than 90%.

Admittedly at this stage WA & QLD (both 63%) have a long way to go.

Number of new daily Covid cases in NSW continues to trend downwards. Keeping that trend going as lockdown restrictions are eased will be the challenge.


Marquee
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ACT now at 88.5% single vaccine dose for their adult popn (16 & above), and will likely hit 90% Thursday or Friday. NSW at 86.2% should hit 90% early next week.

Understand VIC (78.7%) and NSW are in talks re a plan, to open their interstate border.

A reopened TT bubble for the vaccinated is coming. Months away still but coming.
Marquee
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ACT now at over 91% of it's adult popn (age 16 & above) one dose vaccinated. Public servants leading the way, and that figure is hugely encouraging. Maybe Nix should set up in Canberra. No doubt will be some top class training facilities there, being AIS headquarters.

NSW will tick over 88% single dose today. So by Nix's first game in 7 weeks against MAC on 21st November, NSW will be likely 90% plus adult popn fully vaccinated. Being in a long lockdown no doubt motivates folks to get the jab.

Highly likely Nix will play all their 6 NSW games, pre Xmas in front of crowds.

VIC over 81% single dose.

However WA, SA & QLD all dragging the chain at 66-69%. Up to them and NZ to catch up, before that TT bubble will reopened and Nix return to Welly.
Marquee
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coochiee
ACT now at over 91% of it's adult popn (age 16 & above) one dose vaccinated. Public servants leading the way, and that figure is hugely encouraging. Maybe Nix should set up in Canberra. No doubt will be some top class training facilities there, being AIS headquarters.

NSW will tick over 88% single dose today. So by Nix's first game in 7 weeks against MAC on 21st November, NSW will be likely 90% plus adult popn fully vaccinated. Being in a long lockdown no doubt motivates folks to get the jab.

Highly likely Nix will play all their 6 NSW games, pre Xmas in front of crowds.

VIC over 81% single dose.

However WA, SA & QLD all dragging the chain at 66-69%. Up to them and NZ to catch up, before that TT bubble will reopened and Nix return to Welly.
II don't know if its dragging the chain, the au govt has prioritised nsw. 
Marquee
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Ryan
coochiee
ACT now at over 91% of it's adult popn (age 16 & above) one dose vaccinated. Public servants leading the way, and that figure is hugely encouraging. Maybe Nix should set up in Canberra. No doubt will be some top class training facilities there, being AIS headquarters.

NSW will tick over 88% single dose today. So by Nix's first game in 7 weeks against MAC on 21st November, NSW will be likely 90% plus adult popn fully vaccinated. Being in a long lockdown no doubt motivates folks to get the jab.

Highly likely Nix will play all their 6 NSW games, pre Xmas in front of crowds.

VIC over 81% single dose.

However WA, SA & QLD all dragging the chain at 66-69%. Up to them and NZ to catch up, before that TT bubble will reopened and Nix return to Welly.
II don't know if its dragging the chain, the au govt has prioritised nsw. 

Anedoctal evidence talking to folks here in QLD is definitely some dragging the chain. "I'm waiting to see how these vaccines go", "We don't have Covid here", "I'm not travelling anywhere" blah blah blah.

QLD now doing vaccine walkins, no booking required. That should hopefully prompt some. Was yes some earlier frustrations with the vaccine booking system, and some supply issues. Plenty of supply now apparently.

But can see QLD, struggling to hit that 90% level. Borders reopening, and a few Covid deaths here, in blunt reality is probably the trigger required. Plus a requirement to be vaccinated to fly to Sydney/Melb for a family Xmas etc etc etc. 

But will be tricky to stop folks driving across the border without proof of vaccine, once they remove the road barriers, as is a big state border. They will have to remove the road barriers/road checks once borders reopen, otherwise car queues will be an impractical hours long.
tradition and history
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coochiee
Ryan
coochiee
ACT now at over 91% of it's adult popn (age 16 & above) one dose vaccinated. Public servants leading the way, and that figure is hugely encouraging. Maybe Nix should set up in Canberra. No doubt will be some top class training facilities there, being AIS headquarters.

NSW will tick over 88% single dose today. So by Nix's first game in 7 weeks against MAC on 21st November, NSW will be likely 90% plus adult popn fully vaccinated. Being in a long lockdown no doubt motivates folks to get the jab.

Highly likely Nix will play all their 6 NSW games, pre Xmas in front of crowds.

VIC over 81% single dose.

However WA, SA & QLD all dragging the chain at 66-69%. Up to them and NZ to catch up, before that TT bubble will reopened and Nix return to Welly.
II don't know if its dragging the chain, the au govt has prioritised nsw. 

Anedoctal evidence talking to folks here in QLD is definitely some dragging the chain. "I'm waiting to see how these vaccines go", "We don't have Covid here", "I'm not travelling anywhere" blah blah blah.

QLD now doing vaccine walkins, no booking required. That should hopefully prompt some. Was yes some earlier frustrations with the vaccine booking system, and some supply issues. Plenty of supply now apparently.

But can see QLD, struggling to hit that 90% level. Borders reopening, and a few Covid deaths here, in blunt reality is probably the trigger required. Plus a requirement to be vaccinated to fly to Sydney/Melb for a family Xmas etc etc etc. 

But will be tricky to stop folks driving across the border without proof of vaccine, once they remove the road barriers, as is a big state border. They will have to remove the road barriers/road checks once borders reopen, otherwise car queues will be an impractical hours long.
You forgot the mention a belligerent premier in Qld 
Marquee
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Yes but even Annastacia knows a closed QLD-NSW border come Xmas, will be very unpopular, esp with NSW having having 90% plus of it's above age 12 popn fully vaccinated. Will be perceived as her fault, if the vaccination levels in QLD are too low to reopen.

And pollies need to remain popular to get re-elected.

And too be fair Premier Palaszczuk been using the line 'Covid's coming, get vaccinated', for awhile now, ie any thoughts about elimination in the dust bin.


tradition and history
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coochiee
Yes but even Annastacia knows a closed QLD-NSW border come Xmas, will be very unpopular, esp with NSW having having 90% plus of it's above age 12 popn fully vaccinated. Will be perceived as her fault, if the vaccination levels in QLD are too low to reopen.

And pollies need to remain popular to get re-elected.

And too be fair Premier Palaszczuk been using the line 'Covid's coming, get vaccinated', for awhile now, ie any thoughts about elimination in the dust bin.


It is not that long since she changed tune. I've been saying this since last April 2020. A lot of politicians have used covid for their own agendas. 
Marquee
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NSW now at an impressive 89% single dose vaccinated (adult popn above age 16). 

ACT at a super impressive 95% (above age 12). How high can they go?  They must have imprisoned all the anti vaxxers there. Putting them in chain gangs would be a great idea. But a fantastic effort by the Canberra public servants, and a challenge to Welly.

NSW will go to 70% fully vaccinated (currently 69.1%) sometime next few days. They are scheduled to have their version of 'Freedom Day' next Monday when much of the lockdown restrictions are eased. But certainly a scaled down version of the seemingly rushed UK version of F Day.

Number of new daily cases in NSW continues to fall each day. Challenge will be preventing an explosion of new cases as restrictions ease.

By time Nix Mens & Womens teams get to NSW, will be 80% plus double vaccinated adult popn, and a lot of freedom. Hopefully NSW-VIC border is reopened not long after that for fully vaccinated folks. Then once hit 90% fully vaccinated in December, would NZ consider reopening TT bubble with NSW for the vaccinated?

VIC currently at 84% first dose, and 55% two doses.

Marquee
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Wellington's apparently 91% single dose for 12 and above so looking positive for home games this season.
Marquee
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NSW has just ticked over 90% single dose vaccinated (popn above age 16). Should be 90% fully vaccinated sometime early-mid November (age 12 & above), about the time the A League kicks off.

ACT a very impressive 95% single dose vaccinated. VIC currently at 85% single dose. Yes Covid cases are getting high in VIC, but eventually new case numbers will fall as they did in NSW, as higher vaccine numbers kick in.

SA (72% single dose), WA & QLD (both 70% single dose) continue to lag behind. 

But since the Nix men are only playing NSW teams up to Christmas - by when vaccination rates in SA, WA & QLD should be range 80-85% fully vaccinated - I see a real strong chance Nix men can return to Welly early 2022.

If NZ is also in that 80-90% fully vaccinated range by Christmas, and the elimination strategy is in the dustbin, why should vaccinated Australian sports teams be stopped entering NZ for say 2-3 days? If not the TT travel bubble fully reopened for vaccinated travellers?

As I mentioned a month or so back could happen, sounds like the Auckland lockdown is really starting to be unpopular, and folks are starting to disobey/lose patience. Where NZ Govt appear to have dropped the ball badly (to quote a Stuff article today), is not gearing up the ICU capacity around NZ. That appears an obstacle to things opening up in the short term.
Marquee
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They've tripped icu ventilators and beds, the issue is it takes four years to train the icu nurses and we can't import them because of global demand.


Relying on icu capacity isn't the key to reopening anyway. 
Marquee
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Ryan

They've tripped icu ventilators and beds, the issue is it takes four years to train the icu nurses and we can't import them because of global demand.


Relying on icu capacity isn't the key to reopening anyway. 

Not the key but certainly part of the jigsaw, to making sure you don't overwhelm the health system when lockdowns cease.

Saw a story on VIC health system the other day, where they are now putting nurses into ICU units with as little as 6 days specialist training prior. No idea how widespread that is. I imagine alot of that normal 4 years training is actually spent within an ICU ward.
Marquee
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That's what Ashley said the plan was here . We have a lot of people with one or less year training that we started to educate after the pandemic,they'll be operating the beds with the seasoned nurses supervising. 
Legend
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Well, there’s an international shortage of icu nurses. I don’t think it’s a major misstep, but it’s going to make things nervy if the vaccine shy percentage of the population is significant. 
Feeling a bit more chipper when Japan apparently has fewer daily cases than Melbourne. 
Personally I think that like we tax risky and expensive behavior in alcohol and ciggs, we should tax the non-vaccinated as they make up the absolutely overwhelming percentage of those transmitting the virus and using the ICU. 
Legend
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Also noticed a discrepancy between the vaccination figures on Stuff and The Herald. Anyone got a clue there?
Marquee
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'Freedom Day' in NSW, as lockdown ends. State sits at 74.0% fully vaccinated & 90.5% single dose (adult popns above 16).

Lots of talk about Sydney opening up to vaccinated international travellers with no hotel MIQ. Instead 7-14 days home quarantine. 

Strong motivation being chronic labour shortages for small businesses, with no backpackers, working visa holders etc. Some of the same issues NZ will face (if not already facing) once vax numbers are high & lockdowns cease.

Anyway maybe some chance that Nix could get visa players into NSW, without them having to quarantine prior Xmas.

Also talk that NSW-VIC border will reopen soon.

Edit - QLD now talking about reopening state borders (currently closed to VIC & NSW) sometime late Nov, when should be at 80% fully vaccinated. Currently only 70% single dose (adult popn).

So should be looking at a fairly normal A League Home & Away season by Xmas, depending on what the NZ, SA & WA Govts decide.
Legend
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FYI
stuff v herald website vaccination rates
The difference is because Stuff uses the resident population base as at Dec 2020 (estimate, dataset produced by Stats NZ).
The Ministry of Health uses the HSU (Health Service User) database. By their own admission, HSU undercounts the population because it only includes the people who interacted with the health system within the last year.
For example: according to the HSU, there are 4.2M 12+ people versus 4.35M according to 2020 estimates.

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