that's great news re Hooper, really need his experience up front - maybe he can play on or two of our last 4 games. If 38 points is what we need to make the 6 then minimum we need to find is 5 points from 4 games. @ of those games are against an average WSW side who haven't won in over a month. Beat them twice and we got to 39 points, steal a point against Victory and it's 40. Getting into the top 6 is still in our hands. We have a game in hand on two teams above us one of those being Adelaide who are in 4th (1 point more than us). If we match them in results we get 4th and a home semi minimum.
Yet here we are, four games remaining, and the Wellington Phoenix are sitting fifth on the ladder with every chance of earning a home finals match. When it’s bad it’s terrible but when it’s good it’s really good and there doesn’t seem to be much spillage between those two states because of those six 4+ goals defeats... they’ve won the immediate next game on three occasions and will be aiming to make it four on the weekend at Eden Park in Auckland.
The Nix’s goal difference was shot weeks ago. At this stage, a 1-0 loss and a 4-0 loss are basically no worse than each other so long as the team is able to respond in the next game which they generally tend to do. It’s rocks or diamonds with them at the moment but considering all the challenges put before them it’s pretty remarkable that they are where they are with everything still to play for going into the last few weeks of the term. Fingers crossed they score first in a couple more of these remaining fixtures.
Gary Hooper took part in rondos at Phoenix training for the first time in weeks on Saturday after recovering from a calf injury, and could potentially make his first appearance since March 18 on Friday against Victory.
Return dates for fullback Callan Elliot, who has a hamstring injury, and centre back Joshua Laws, who has recovered from his ankle injury, but is now dealing with a knee injury, are less clear.
Midfielder Clayton Lewis has been in Auckland recovering from the ankle injury he suffered four weeks ago, but was due to fly back to Sydney with his team-mates and is hoping to return in time to play in the finals series, should the Phoenix make it, if not slightly earlier.
That they’re even in the running is remarkable when you consider they’ve played 52 of their last 56 matches – and another four in the Australia Cup – on Australian soil due to Covid-19 border restrictions.
Only 2 teams that can stop them winning the Championship, are both Victorian as well (Western U & Victory).
So even if Melb City finish 2nd, and they make the final, the final will be held Melbourne whether they are first or 2nd on the league table. Think I have that right.
So even if they risk finishing 2nd by resting players against the Nix, they may still do it.
Think given our 3 games are going to be tough...... WSW is winnable which in theory will be enough to get us 4th, I'd like to think we could beat victory who are at the end of a run of games close together, hopefully they are tired and we can steal some points from them. I'm not holding much hope for the City game, they are just too good. Hopefully we get 4th and can bring another team to Wellington and smash them in style - I note that the semi-finals are two games, home and away which potentially means we'd get a home semi game if we make it there.
With their draw in Perth and CCM's win, means Wanderers slim top 6 hopes are officially ended.
So Nix will play a WSW team hopefully a bit flat, and maybe even resting a few first choice players. Though they will have some anger after losing narrowly at Eden Park, when they really should have at least drawn that game.
Only Macarthur (7th, 32 pts) and Sydney (8th, 31 pts ) each with 2 left can catch the Nix now (6th, 36 pts) MAC - Newcastle (H) & WSW (H) SFC - Victory (H) & Roar (A)
Macarthur denied Nix making top 6, last season by 1 pt. Revenge this season?
A win against the Wanderers will see it happen. Actually if Macarthur lose to the Jets tonight, then only SFC can catch the Nix, and they would need to win both their remaining games to do so. Chin up, fingers crossed, Nix sitting in the box seat.
We can theoretically get to 4th or 5th, but 6th looks most likely (if we beat WSW). We'd have to beat City and/or outperform CCM in the last two games (and they have Roar and Jets) to get above 6th. We'd have to beat City, and Adelaide would have to lose to WU, for us to get to 4th.
So most likely, if we make it, we get there in 6th.
That would put us in the 3v6 elimination final. Neither Adelaide or CCM can catch WU and Victory to get to 3rd. So it would be one of Victory or WU we'd play, in the 3v6 elimination final, if we make it. (Vic v Sydney to come, WU v Adelaide and Jets. Hard to be sure which gets ahead).
I like to think we'd have a reasonable chance against Victory or WU, if we can get/keep enough players fit. Ball, Sotirio, Hooper and Lewis might all be back by then, at least for decent minutes?
Honestly we've been violated by CCM twice in the last few weeks, and Adelaide tonked us convincingly earlier in the season. Western have really had a downwards turn in the second half of the season, and we know we can beat them. I think I'd rather finish 6th and face the woo.
Honestly we've been violated by CCM twice in the last few weeks, and Adelaide tonked us convincingly earlier in the season. Western have really had a downwards turn in the second half of the season, and we know we can beat them. I think I'd rather finish 6th and face the woo.
Macarthur officially eliminated. Between us, CCM & Sydney for two spots.
Sydney have to beat the Victory next Saturday & then win on the road in Brisbane on the following Tuesday + hope neither CCM or the Phoenix win another match.
So what are our chances of finding our best form in the coming weeks and getting some momentum?
It feels like for Hooper to succeed we’d have to play a totally different way to how we had been with Jaushy up front. How bad is Bally’s injury? How far away is Lewis? Would Laws be better in the centre than Gael? Sotirio, oddly enough, feels like a key player if we’re guna play like we have and pinch or grind out results.
What scenarios are the scenarios whereby we can really bury the memories of the multiple goal hidings we’ve received and get fired up for the remainder of the season?
So what are our chances of finding our best form in the coming weeks and getting some momentum?
It feels like for Hooper to succeed we’d have to play a totally different way to how we had been with Jaushy up front. How bad is Bally’s injury? How far away is Lewis? Would Laws be better in the centre than Gael? Sotirio, oddly enough, feels like a key player if we’re guna play like we have and pinch or grind out results.
What scenarios are the scenarios whereby we can really bury the memories of the multiple goal hidings we’ve received and get fired up for the remainder of the season?
Nix had that 7-8 game unbeaten run around Jan-Feb where Sotiro was a key component, and Hooper more a bit player. And it was a very settled side of same 11-13 players, barely using subs.
Everyone seemed to know their roles, and it was humming along before injuries, Covid cases and guys off to the OFC Tourney disrupted it all. If that same group except Rufer were again all available, is a chance Nix could win at least first playoff game (Elimination Final). So yes Laws, Lewis, Elliott & Hooper all coming back ready to play good mins or even start a big boost. And yeah WUN in Melbs doesn't loom as that scary for some reason.
Sandoval needs to be in an advanced role with Piscopo. Laws if fit enough best bet to do Rufer's role, alongside Lewis. But Lewis or Laws with Pennington would still be better than now.
Unfortunately Elimination Final is only in a fortnight, and may just be too early to expect much from Laws (also an ankle injury?) or Lewis. If they are both walking around now in moon boots still - will be limitations in how much cardio training/running they are doing to keep fit.
good stat, certainly makes it clear the issues and difficulties the club and team have had to overcome - compared to other teams. Be interesting to see what the Melbourne teams have had to deal with.
City have had 21 games with a short turnaround (includes ACL games), Victory has had 20 games (inc 6 x FFA Cup and one ACL) , and Western 11. Also Perth with 17.
Yes a tough schedule the Nix had. Actually one benefit of being based in NSW, with 5 other teams a bus ride only way, was the much lower travel load on the players.
No coincidence that during that 7 game unbeaten stretch through Jan-early March, Nix played every game in NSW. Certainly the team was very settled then (same 11-13 players each game), but not having too fly anywhere also a massive bonus.
If Nix were based in Welly, that overall schedule (esp last 6 weeks) would have been an absolute killer. Though I imagine they would have done some sort of compromise, forgoing a few games in NZ, playing some 'home' games at the Gong or wherever.
Hopefully no more Covid, weather interrupted seasons, with very few midweek games.
Add to the short turn arounds. The other thing this season that has been a factor to fatigue and injuries is the weather. Seems to be raining in Aus more often than not these days. Played a lot on heavy pitches.
Interesting to see what it's like across the teams. Not surprised to see Perth (quarantine), City (ACL) Sydney (ACL) and Victory (ACL/FFA Cup) up there with a congested fixture list. But Adelaide have been very fortunate with the draw. Games days.jpg30.9 KB
Thinking about the scenarios for this weekends matches, I can think of two favourable ones
1) CCM doesn't win, Adelaide doesn't win & we bet City. That gets us 4th and a Home Finals match 2) Adelaide beats Western and we don't beat City. We will end up 6th & travel away to 3rd placed Western. That is the best match up on paper for us.
Interesting to see what it's like across the teams. Not surprised to see Perth (quarantine), City (ACL) Sydney (ACL) and Victory (ACL/FFA Cup) up there with a congested fixture list. But Adelaide have been very fortunate with the draw. Games days.jpg30.9 KB
Adelaide has been the luckiest team this year, the amount of goals they've scored after 80 mins is ridiculous.
If you score that many times after 80th then its not just luck, rather showing strong mentallity
wilbaker
2ndBest
Interesting to see what it's like across the teams. Not surprised to see Perth (quarantine), City (ACL) Sydney (ACL) and Victory (ACL/FFA Cup) up there with a congested fixture list. But Adelaide have been very fortunate with the draw. Games days.jpg30.9 KB
Adelaide has been the luckiest team this year, the amount of goals they've scored after 80 mins is ridiculous.
If you score that many times after 80th then its not just luck, rather showing strong mentallity
wilbaker
2ndBest
Interesting to see what it's like across the teams. Not surprised to see Perth (quarantine), City (ACL) Sydney (ACL) and Victory (ACL/FFA Cup) up there with a congested fixture list. But Adelaide have been very fortunate with the draw. Games days.jpg30.9 KB
Adelaide has been the luckiest team this year, the amount of goals they've scored after 80 mins is ridiculous.
The chart above shows that the teams they're playing are fatigued, that's why Adelaide is scoring late so it's down to the luck of the draw.
Perhaps you’re right, but you got to put yourself in that position to score late goals, and have a good attitude.. they did it last year multiple times as well. Ryan
Nixieboys222
If you score that many times after 80th then its not just luck, rather showing strong mentallity
wilbaker
2ndBest
Interesting to see what it's like across the teams. Not surprised to see Perth (quarantine), City (ACL) Sydney (ACL) and Victory (ACL/FFA Cup) up there with a congested fixture list. But Adelaide have been very fortunate with the draw. Games days.jpg30.9 KB
Adelaide has been the luckiest team this year, the amount of goals they've scored after 80 mins is ridiculous.
The chart above shows that the teams they're playing are fatigued, that's why Adelaide is scoring late so it's down to the luck of the draw.
Mariners win and make a 4th placed finish impossible for us. Here's hoping Adelaide beat Western so we can hopefully beat City and still play a slumping Bitumens in the finals. Weird when 6th is the preferred option to 5th
E2106E8B-6B7D-4F95-979C-5A62B0982D68.jpeg40.32 KB All he’s reporting in this column is he’s a bit of a dickhead. Leaning heavily into cultural cringe. Not doing this for other codes cos they aren’t making the finals series? His argument isn’t that there shouldn’t be a finals series, just that it should be changed so the Nix don’t qualify.
Are any of the Aussie comps any better? The NRL system is just as bad. Do any of the televised sports actually have one over there? (AFL, Basketball, Cricket, Rugby)
