I was quite surprised just how many more games the women play, against Sweden in their third group game Wilkinson became the 11th women to 100 caps, whereas only 5 men have got to 60 caps, and none to 90, let alone 100. I was looking through the all time AWs caps Wikipedia, and players would have careers over a decade for 30 caps, Reid doesn’t even have 30, Fallon had only 24 surprisingly, Ryan Thomas was 22yo during those Peru games, he’ll likely have only played once before he turns 27.
Moving confederations to AFC probably isn’t in NZF’s hands, regardless of motivation to do it. AFC, especially the Middle Eastern teams don’t want Australia, let alone another couple hours travelling time. Plus the success of Australia since moving has been instead of traditional AFC teams, so why would they want to add another team likely to get in the way of them winning Asian Cups and qualifying for the WC, as New Zealand would be at least consistently challenging for top 5 spots, around Australia, Saudi, Qatar, China etc.
FIFA are also probably against it as they know, if NZ swap, then the whole OFC will eventually go, and then AFC will be left ranging from Syria in the west to Tahiti in the east, and inevitably calls will start to split east and west. That would be great for NZ competitive games, but a nightmare for bureaucrats at FIFA, so I can’t imagine it happening.
AFC at the moment is, in my opinion, easier to qualify out of than OFC, evidenced by Australia being 3 from 3 since changing. Top 2 in two different groups make it, so there’s far more room for error than OFC, and even finishing third in your group can get you the same playoff winning OFC gets. If the WC wasn’t expanding I could see why NZF would want to change, but why look a gift horse in the mouth? You might lose the intercontinental playoff, but maybe you’ll get an extended OFC qualifying, not to mention that World Cup money would be able to get games hosted in New Zealand, and reinvest in the local game. It’s been over 7 years since a non-qualifier was hosted here, and OFC teams are improving rapidly, only twice in the last qualifying round did we score 4 or more (5-0 vs Vanuatu and 6-1 vs Solomon Islands) and we also drew three games (0-0 vs PNG and New Caledonia and 2-2 vs Solomons).
https://footballoceania.com/2020/02/08/opinion-what-the-ofc-nations-league-could-look-like/
This article goes into a bit what that Nations League could look like, and includes inviting the associate members in from the real small OFC nations. CONCACAF does this in their Nations League by inviting teams like Guadeloupe. In the same way that we say playing more games against Japan/Korea/Saudi would improve us, more games against NZ would improve the islands, and thus make it more competitive in OFC. A prime example is that the last team to win the OFC Champions League isn’t a New Zealand team, but Hienghene Sport from New Caledonia.
The window in the first week of September is probably gone, and with UEFA qualifying being compressed, combined with the Nations League finals in the October window, European teams are probably out of the question. AFC qualifiers also start in September, with the top 12 teams involved there, so any friendly that happens, which I wouldn’t hold my breath for, won’t be against any team of high quality.
Moving confederations to AFC probably isn’t in NZF’s hands, regardless of motivation to do it. AFC, especially the Middle Eastern teams don’t want Australia, let alone another couple hours travelling time. Plus the success of Australia since moving has been instead of traditional AFC teams, so why would they want to add another team likely to get in the way of them winning Asian Cups and qualifying for the WC, as New Zealand would be at least consistently challenging for top 5 spots, around Australia, Saudi, Qatar, China etc.
FIFA are also probably against it as they know, if NZ swap, then the whole OFC will eventually go, and then AFC will be left ranging from Syria in the west to Tahiti in the east, and inevitably calls will start to split east and west. That would be great for NZ competitive games, but a nightmare for bureaucrats at FIFA, so I can’t imagine it happening.
AFC at the moment is, in my opinion, easier to qualify out of than OFC, evidenced by Australia being 3 from 3 since changing. Top 2 in two different groups make it, so there’s far more room for error than OFC, and even finishing third in your group can get you the same playoff winning OFC gets. If the WC wasn’t expanding I could see why NZF would want to change, but why look a gift horse in the mouth? You might lose the intercontinental playoff, but maybe you’ll get an extended OFC qualifying, not to mention that World Cup money would be able to get games hosted in New Zealand, and reinvest in the local game. It’s been over 7 years since a non-qualifier was hosted here, and OFC teams are improving rapidly, only twice in the last qualifying round did we score 4 or more (5-0 vs Vanuatu and 6-1 vs Solomon Islands) and we also drew three games (0-0 vs PNG and New Caledonia and 2-2 vs Solomons).
https://footballoceania.com/2020/02/08/opinion-what-the-ofc-nations-league-could-look-like/
This article goes into a bit what that Nations League could look like, and includes inviting the associate members in from the real small OFC nations. CONCACAF does this in their Nations League by inviting teams like Guadeloupe. In the same way that we say playing more games against Japan/Korea/Saudi would improve us, more games against NZ would improve the islands, and thus make it more competitive in OFC. A prime example is that the last team to win the OFC Champions League isn’t a New Zealand team, but Hienghene Sport from New Caledonia.
The window in the first week of September is probably gone, and with UEFA qualifying being compressed, combined with the Nations League finals in the October window, European teams are probably out of the question. AFC qualifiers also start in September, with the top 12 teams involved there, so any friendly that happens, which I wouldn’t hold my breath for, won’t be against any team of high quality.
You make some good points but are OFC teams really improving rapidly? Solomons U17 team at their 2019 WC, lost 0-5, 0-7 & 0-8. They may now have their once in a generation player in Lea'i, but that's not much use if his national team mates ain't anywhere near his class.
Hienghène Sport (a virtual New Caledonian national team??) yes won the last OFC Champions League, but massively helped that their semi against Tee Dubbs was a one leg affair in Noumea, rather than having a 2nd leg in NZ. I can't remember any OFC national or club team achieving any result of note in either NZ, or elsewhere outside the OFC Islands.
Island nations will always be hamstrung by 2 major problems. Small populations (PNG excepted), and in brutal reality being poor. Read about a new football academy being setup (Solomons I think?) for young OFC talented kids, which will definitely help. But harsh truth is their ceiling for any large improvement will always be limited.
However I'd like to see NZF stay in the OFC. The current benefits with virtual automatic WC/Olympics qualifying for all teams bar the AWs (though yes has been a close run thing for some age group boys teams) are high.
But really hope going forward post 2022 some sort of combined AFC/OFC Nations League setup covering the first 2 years of any 4 year WC cycle, giving AWs some quality competitive games against the better Asian nations can be arranged. Be a crime not to see this group of talented male players, playing at least one 1-2 meaningful home games in NZ each year. Covid is part responsible yes, but the fact that Chris Wood last started a football game in NZ in Sept 2017, coming up 4 years ago is a massive opportunity lost. Over that 4 years he has become a EPL regular banging in the goals, yet all young NZ kids have seen of him is on TV in the early hours.
Pre Covid Infantino was aggressively pushing his World Nations League model. He openly stated that it was wrong that many smaller football nations barely played. And yes the Nations League CONCACAF has now seen some of those Caribbean minnows get regular games, so has worked for them. There is a mysterious group behind this World Nations League push, offering huge dollars. It maybe those very big dollars, that somehow persuade the AFC powerbrokers to setup their own Nations League, and hopefully bring in some OFC teams as well.
Lastly with the bloated WC expansion in 2026, AFC is mooted to have their current 4.5 team allocation increased to 8.5, so some of that West Asia/Arab country angst to having Australia (or even adding NZ) in AFC will lessen.
The current setup of having the AWs barely play in NZ (especially first 2 years of any WC cycle) is just wrong. Especially now with all these young talented guys up in Europe. Some sort of plan needs to be worked on to have them playing down in NZ, min 1-2 times per year, otherwise another missed opportunity lost for football in NZ.