Something to keep in mind is that NZ has not had regular meaningful games against quality opposition ever. We would probably get a lot better were we to be suddenly getting heaps of competitive games against teams better than/comparable to us. I'd be very confident we could qualify out of Asia if they had 9 direct spots.
For sure it would be possible, but it would be far from a given. Playing very well organised Middle Eastern teams who have spent alot of time together, in their home conditions wouldn't be easy. Then with nearly all of our first choice team in Europe these days, playing at home, our players have to travel as much or even more than theirs.
Again look to Australia, who are alot better than us, having to squeak into the last 2 World Cups via Intercontinental Playoffs. Admittedly yes AFC having 4.5 spots with those 32 team WCs.
A 48 team WC sees AFC with 8 spots (not 9).
The 9th best AFC team will go into a 6 team playoff tourney (CONMEBOL, CONCACAF x2, OFC, AFC & CAF) at a neutral location, with last 2 WC spots up for grabs. I think the 9th AFC team will struggle to get through that playoff tourney. The OFC team zero chance.
But getting to a World Cup should be hard. That's why I'm not really a big fan of a 48 team WC, and the free pass the AWs now virtually get. I enjoyed the hype around the big 4 yearly Playoff game in NZ. Basically now the AWs will never play any more big tense games at home in NZ. That's a bit sad. We all remember the tense Bahrain (dramatic even) & Peru games, and how for that week football was the main sports story in NZ.
Luckily we now have the Auckland v Nix derbies, to provide 2 big annual football games in NZ, plus obviously hopefully some ALM finals like this year. But sad no more high profile big games in NZ for the AWs.
NZF are doing a good job at the moment, securing the AWs 2 quality friendlies each window since March last year. Another 2 in September, and then hopefully every window from June 2025 to pre the 2026 WC. That's enough tough hard games for the AWs to hone combinations, test themselves & improve.
Not sure playing in AFC would really improve the team much. You still would have the challenges of only being together for a few days, and likely even less training time, as you navigate tricky travel schedules like Europe-Auckland-Bangkok-Europe for the squad. At least with these friendlies the NZF are putting together, the games are either in one location (like Cairo in March), or involve easy short flights (Pasadena to Cincinnati in Sept)