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All Whites' Dead End Road To Russia 2018

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Posted June 01, 2015 07:04 · last edited June 01, 2015 07:16

My own three cents worth:

Guys aching over how "we wuz robbed cuz we didn't get a direct path from Oceania" need to grow up, really.  Yes it would be nice. No, it is not deserved. The bonus for the Pacific member-countries of Oceania is the flow of FIFA development money, not the automatic spot in the WC for the winner. 

The reason that it is not deserved is that the level of the OFC group is not good enough on average. I will argue that the level of CONCACAF is better on average than Oceania. The average level of Asia may not be higher than the average level in Oceania because Asia is a very large single group, but there are not enough places out of Asia for this to matter (their second round of AFC qualifiers represents teams that are on avergae better than Oceania). In short, just because New Zealand is a top team in the OFC doesn't entitle the whole OFC to have an automatic spot in the WC finals.

However, what I do agree wholeheartedly with, is the badly designed "Step 2" of the OFC qualifying path. A weak (OFC) confederation winner has a poor chance against the fourth (or whatever) team in CONCACAF or Asia. The reason is the same as above: relative difference between groups.

In an ideal, just, world there would be a playoff pool for various fourth-place getters (say 4th in Asia, 4th in CONCACAF, maybe the sixth CONMEBOL etc) where the OFC winner would compete against say 3 other teams for say two additional finals spots. That would be fair, and possibly attractive, if it was a round-robbin; but logistically it would be a problem to get all teams in one neutral place at the same time. What we have now instead is less fair, but logistically simpler.

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Mainland FC edited June 01, 2015 07:16

My own three cents worth:

Guys aching over how "we wuz robbed cuz we didn't get a direct path from Oceania" need to grow up, really.  Yes it would be nice. No, it is not deserved. The bonus for the Pacific member-countries of Oceania is the flow of FIFA development money, not the automatic spot in the WC for the winner. 

The reason that it is not deserved is that the level of the OFC group is not good enough on average. I will argue that the level of CONCACAF is better on average than Oceania. The average level of Asia may not be higher than the average level in Oceania, but there are not enough places out of Asia for this to matter. Just because we are a quite decent team by the standard of our location doesn't entitle the whole group to have a spot in the finals.

What I do agree wholeheartedly with is the poorly designed Step 2 of the OFC qualifying path. A weak (OFC) confederation winner has a poor chance against the fourth (or whatever) team in CONCACAF or Asia. The reason is the same as above: relative difference between groups.

In an ideal, just, world there would be a playoff pool for various fourth-place getters (say 4th in Asia, 4th in CONCACAF, maybe the sixth CONMEBOL etc) where the OFC winner would compete against say 3 other teams for say two additional finals spots. That would be fair, and possibly attractive, if it was a round-robbin; but logistically it would be a problem to get all teams in one neutral place at the same time. What we have now instead is less fair, but logistically simpler.

Mainland FC edited June 01, 2015 07:13

My own three cents worth:

Guys aching over how "we wuz robbed cuz we didn't get a direct path from Oceania" need to grow up, really.  Yes it would be nice. No, it is not deserved. The bonus for the Pacific member-countries of Oceania is the flow of FIFA development money, not the automatic spot in the WC for the winner. 

The reason that it is not (yet) desrved is that the level of the OFC group is not good enough on average. I will argue that the level of CONCACAF is better on average tan Oceania, and the same applies to Asia. A number of arguably decent UEFA teams that do not get through is staggering every time.

What I do agree wholeheartedly with is the poor Step 2 of the qualifying path. A weak confederation winner has a poor chance against the fourth (or whatever) team in CONCACAF or Asia. The reason is the same as above. 

In an ideal, just world, there would be a playoff pool for various fourth-place getters (say 4th in Asia, 4th in CONCACAF, maybe the sixth CONMEBOL etc) where the OFC winner would compete against these for say two additional spots. That would be fairer, but logistically a problem to get everyone in one neutral place at the same time. What we have now instead is less fair, but logistically simpler.

Mainland FC edited June 01, 2015 07:05

My own three cents worth:

Guys aching over how "we wuz robbed cuz we didn't get a direct path from Oceania" need to grow up, really.  Yes it would be nice. No, it is not deserved. The bonus for the Pacific member-countries of Oceania is the development money, not the automatic spot for the winner. 

The reason for that is that the level of the OFC group is not good enough on average. I will argue that the level of CONCACAF is better on average tan Oceania, and the same applies to Asia. 

What I do agree wholeheartedly with is the poor Step 2 of the qualifying path. A weak confederation winner has a poor chance against the fourth (or whatever) team in CONCACAF or Asia. The reason is the same as above. 

In an ideal, just world, there would be a playoff pool for various fourth-place getters (say 4th in Asia, 4th in CONCACAF, maybe the sixth CONMEBOL etc) where the OFC winner would compete against these for say two additional spots. That would be fairer, but logistically a problem to get everyone in one neutral place at the same time. What we have now instead is less fair, but logistically simpler.