Post history

History for coochiee

All Whites' Dead End Road To Russia 2018

Back to topic

Current version

Posted August 28, 2017 02:07 · last edited August 28, 2017 02:12

Big Pete 65 wrote:

GK wrote:

So the best case scenario would be Peru or Ecuador getting 5th and avoiding Argentina and the other top4? What are the chances Big Pete?

For astute analysis of the likely outcome see 2ndBest and El Grapadura's posts above:

"The overwhelming probability is that the 5th placed team will be one out of Argentina, Chile, or Uruguay. Something quite extraordinary would have to happen for it not to be one of those three."

And that will be better financially of course for NZ Football, especially if it's Argentina.

Peru or Ecuador, or Paraguay, just wouldn't generate the same TV revenue. Wasn't it $6 million last time from the two Mexico games?

Whoever finishes fifth we will struggle against but it will be entertaining and a huge event for the home leg - biggest qualifying game in our history, more prestigious opponents than Bahrain or Mexico (or China going back to the 1982 play-off in Singapore). 

Yeah but didn't NZF get $10M for actually qualifying for 2010 WC, from FIFA?

Also my understanding is that the $6M from the 2 Mexican games, came from TV money NZF negotiated with some Mexican TV channels. No guarantee that sort of money will be paid by any South American TV networks. Many of the South American economies are currently very weak (big overall reliance on mining/resources). Still if anything the Mayweather/Macgregor fight ($300M purse?!) showed that when pay TV channels get involved who knows what amount of money can be flushed out.

Personally I want to see the AWs at the 2018 WC (long shot I know), and that means playing the weakest SA team possible. I'd rather Messi & Co didn't get to visit Wellington. Come on Peru!

Previous versions

2 versions
Unknown editor edited August 28, 2017 02:12
Big Pete 65 wrote:
GK wrote:

So the best case scenario would be Peru or Ecuador getting 5th and avoiding Argentina and the other top4? What are the chances Big Pete?

For astute analysis of the likely outcome see 2ndBest and El Grapadura's posts above:

"The overwhelming probability is that the 5th placed team will be one out of Argentina, Chile, or Uruguay. Something quite extraordinary would have to happen for it not to be one of those three."

And that will be better financially of course for NZ Football, especially if it's Argentina.

Peru or Ecuador, or Paraguay, just wouldn't generate the same TV revenue. Wasn't it $6 million last time from the two Mexico games?

Whoever finishes fifth we will struggle against but it will be entertaining and a huge event for the home leg - biggest qualifying game in our history, more prestigious opponents than Bahrain or Mexico (or China going back to the 1982 play-off in Singapore). 

Yeah but didn't NZF get $10M for actually qualifying for 2010 WC, from FIFA?

Also my understanding is that $6M from 2 Mexican games, came from TV money NZF negotiated with some Mexican TV channels. No guarantee that sort of money will be paid by any South American TV networks. Many of the South American economies are currently very weak (big overall reliance on mining/resources). Still if anything the Mayweather/Macgregor fight ($300M purse?!) showed that when pay TV channels get involved who knows what amount of money can be flushed out.

Personally I want to see the AWs at the 2018 WC (long shot I know), and that means playing the weakest SA team possible. I'd rather Messi & Co didn't get to visit Wellington. Come on Peru!

Unknown editor edited August 28, 2017 02:10
Big Pete 65 wrote:
GK wrote:

So the best case scenario would be Peru or Ecuador getting 5th and avoiding Argentina and the other top4? What are the chances Big Pete?

For astute analysis of the likely outcome see 2ndBest and El Grapadura's posts above:

"The overwhelming probability is that the 5th placed team will be one out of Argentina, Chile, or Uruguay. Something quite extraordinary would have to happen for it not to be one of those three."

And that will be better financially of course for NZ Football, especially if it's Argentina.

Peru or Ecuador, or Paraguay, just wouldn't generate the same TV revenue. Wasn't it $6 million last time from the two Mexico games?

Whoever finishes fifth we will struggle against but it will be entertaining and a huge event for the home leg - biggest qualifying game in our history, more prestigious opponents than Bahrain or Mexico (or China going back to the 1982 play-off in Singapore). 

Yeah but didn't NZF get $10M for actually qualifying 2010 WC, from FIFA?

Also my understanding is that $6M from 2 Mexican games, came from TV money NZF negotiatedwith some Mexican TV channels. No guarantee that sort of money will be paid by any South American TV networks. Many of the South American economies are currently very weak (big overall reliance on mining/resources).

Personally I want to see the AWs at the 2018 WC (long shot I know), and that means playing the weakest SA team possible. I'd rather Messi & Co didn't get to visit Wellington. Come on Peru!