I don't know about you guys, but I have been spewing for months when we were knocked out by Mexico. The first leg especially, I managed to make it to the pub after my grandma passed away that day (I was in Italy on holiday) and managed to drag a couple of friends to watch that terrible performance which basically gave us no chance of redemption. All these months hoping to qualify just gone in over half an hour - it was pretty bloody shark.
I would murder and pillage to get the weakest possible team in the playoff. I don't want to watch another WC go by without feeling a real connection to it.
I know even the likes of Peru and Ecuador would have a huge advantage against us - heck I think we could easily lose against Venezuela who only managed one win in 15 games - but I just don't see the point in playing the likes of Argentina.
Yeah agree with you. Fully acknowledge that beating 5th South American team over 2 legs is a massive long shot. I watched Peru v Bolivia game on the weekend. I didn't know one player but the speed of pass, movement, skill .............even these teams (and neither are likely to finish 5th) would be big favourites against AWs.
However I want to see AWs at the World Cup. Any other thoughts to me are defeatist - an attitude of we are shark and we always will be. Hate that. Beating Bahrain and going WC2010 was awesome, losing to Mexico was sharke (esp nature of it).
I've watched Lionel on TV enough, to know that he is a genuis. If I want to watch him live I'll fly to Europe, and buy a ticket to Nou Camp. Anyway thankfully Argentina, won't finish 5th (they may even lie 2nd after Wednesday).
I'd much rather -
1. We somehow miraculously win playoff series and qualify. Football is littered with upsets. Or
2. Play with heart, fight tooth & nail and lose honorably by a few goals to someone like Paraguay
After Mexico debacle AWs were in doldrums for at least 18 months (hardly played a game). All that TV money didn't help us at all get AWs any meaningful matches. Getting hammered by the Mexicans just meant the average ill informed rugby head/media jock could spout how "hopeless NZ is at soccer".
Yeah sure highly unlikely we will qualify, but I'll be wishing AWs all the best in their endeavours to do so (even Tommy Smith).
I also don't think it's an attitude of we shark and will always be shark. I don't know where the "we will always be shark" of that has come from.
But let's be realistic here. There's nothing in our performances post-2010 to suggest we could beat a team like this, in meaningful games, let alone beat them over 180+ minutes of football. They will have played 17 competitive games to get here, against better opposition than us, not to mention the Copa America as well. With have some EPL quality at either end but our midfield is relatively weak and our wingbacks even more so. Being at home first is a disadvantage because even if we win by a goal or draw through some miracle we then have to go into a hostile environment to hold onto a lead against a superior team with nothing to lose. Yeah upsets happen but IMO if you want to dream about an upset as unlikely as us beating any of those teams it may as well be Argentina because the likelihood of beating any of them is so slim that it doesn't really matter which one we are talking about. An upset of that magnitude would be such a freak occurrence anyway.
Nah disagree. To increase chances of winning logic, says you want to play "weakest" Sth American team you can. That team is not Argentina. Paraguay for example we would still be huge underdogs, but we (incl players) would still give us an outside chance. If was the Argies, the AWs players would be 90% beaten before even took the field knowing L Messi was in other team.
Also I don't buy this we have looked unconvincing since 2010, so we have no chance, talk. Winston Reid's presence is massive. Huge. How many AWs games has he played since 2010. Less than ten??
There was a very noticeable lift in performance & confidence with the two USA tour games when he played. He isn't Jesus Christ reincarnated, but if anyone can sprinkle some miracle dust he can. With him, AWs will get a huge legup, and some chance (however slim) - without him, no chance. Nada
I didn't say we have looked unconvincing, although I think for 80-90% of that time we have, but I was meaning that we haven't looked good enough to get a result over two legs against the 5th best team in South America (whoever that is). Those two North American games were a loss and a draw in friendlies against effectively second string sides. Competitive games against motivated opposition who are probably better than the US or Mexico anyway are a whole different kettle of fish.
In 2005 Australia, with a much better squad than ours is currently and with the home advantage for the second leg managed to get through only on penalties vs Uruguay. Last WC South America's 6th best team beat their playoff opponent because Brazil were automatic qualifiers as hosts. In these qualifiers so far Paraguay have beaten Chile twice, Argentina once, and drawn with Brazil. Yeah we have an outside chance against them but a very, very outside one. By definition whoever finishes 5th is better than 5 of the CONMEBOL teams over the last couple of years. Whichever team it is would be red hot favourites to beat us. We might have a better chance against Paraguay than Argentina but IMO it's the difference between 1 in 40 odds and. 1 in 50. The slightly greater chance of qualifying isn't enough to make me prefer to play them.
If we were playing off against AFC or CONCACAF I would care much more about us meeting the weakest possible opponent but against CONMEBOL I don't think it makes enough of a difference for me to bother. Beating whoever we end up facing over two legs would be the biggest results we ever got I would say. Drawing with Italy when they were defending word champs was huge but it was one game on neutral territory, this is two games and the away leg will be brutal.
Look as always CT, you make some good points, and I think everyone agrees chances of AWs winning this two legged playoff are wafer slim. However by playing Argentina they become even slimmer to non existent, as opposed to playing say Paraguay.
If it’s the Argies (and thankfully I don’t seeing it being them), the first leg in Wellington will have the feel of a Messi exhibition match, with the AWs as bit part players in the great Lionel show. Personally I don’t want that. I want an all stakes/knife edge match where it at least feels like we have a chance (however misplaced), in the first leg – and it’s all to play for. It’s now 8 years since the Bahrain game, the last high tension AWs match in NZ. Sorry to me that is shark house. Way too long. Even the Island nations get the feeling of exciting all stakes games, when they play each other in the Oceania group games.
You are dead right the away leg game will be brutal, real backs to the wall stuff for large periods. Wave after wave of attacks, coming AWs way, and huge dollops of luck will be needed to have any chance. And yes in 2005 the Socceroos only won on pens, in the equivalent playoff series verus Uruguay and they had probably 6-8 EPL or equivalent level players. We have two.
Also agree would be the biggest achievement ever by AWs if they can miraculously pull it off, so get behind them and Peru I say!
