So a thought bubble after today's 1-1 draw against the US. And yeah I realise the limitations of the FIFA rankings.
In 2026 we will be in Pot D (likely the lowest ranked team in North America).
12 pools of 4 teams. Drawn from
Pot A will be teams roughly 1st-12th
Pot B teams roughly 13th-24th
Pot C teams roughly 25th-36th
Pot D (including us)
First knock out round will be a R32, with the top 2 teams from each pool, plus 8 best 3rd placed teams. To grab one of those 3rd placed spots, 1 win (3 pts) could well be enough. 4 pts should definitely be enough.
So our obvious target will be 4 points from pool games against the Pot B & C teams. So roughly teams 13th-36th in the world rankings.
Teams in that ranking range we have played the last few years include, USA (16th), Mexico (17th), Australia (24th), Sweden (29th), Qatar (34th) & Egypt (36th).
Others we have played in recent times not so far off 36th spot, that they could still land in Pot C if they qualified - include Tunisia (41st), Peru (42nd), Costa Rica (49th), Greece (54th), Ireland (58th) & Congo (60th)
Mexico, Australia, Sweden & even Greece were too good for us on the day.
But the others we pushed. Losing by 1 goal, or getting a draw (USA, Tunisia, Ireland & Congo. Apart from Aussie once at Eden Park, all the matches away or at neutral venues.
So in rough summary we have some chance I reckon to make R32 in 2026, ie get out of our pool. Will be tough, need some luck, need a healthy squad, with a good run of tough friendlies leading in, and a well set game plan plus stable side. Could happen.
Beating a team(s) ranked 25th-50th in the world at some point, is obviously the next goal, between now and 2026.
And re Bazeley. Niche Cache made a recent statement, that sometimes with international sides and their limited preparation gatherings, you almost want a coach who 'doesn't get in the way'. That is not having someone who's looking to bring in a whole different game plan they are set on, that risks bringing instability etc. National teams are always handicapped by their limited time together to bed in structures etc, none more so than NZ with players coming in from all over.
Likes of a Hiddink, Pochettino, Gareca are clearly outside of NZF's pay bracket. Perhaps the best we can hope for is someone that yes 'doesn't get in the way'.
In 2026 we will be in Pot D (likely the lowest ranked team in North America).
12 pools of 4 teams. Drawn from
Pot A will be teams roughly 1st-12th
Pot B teams roughly 13th-24th
Pot C teams roughly 25th-36th
Pot D (including us)
First knock out round will be a R32, with the top 2 teams from each pool, plus 8 best 3rd placed teams. To grab one of those 3rd placed spots, 1 win (3 pts) could well be enough. 4 pts should definitely be enough.
So our obvious target will be 4 points from pool games against the Pot B & C teams. So roughly teams 13th-36th in the world rankings.
Teams in that ranking range we have played the last few years include, USA (16th), Mexico (17th), Australia (24th), Sweden (29th), Qatar (34th) & Egypt (36th).
Others we have played in recent times not so far off 36th spot, that they could still land in Pot C if they qualified - include Tunisia (41st), Peru (42nd), Costa Rica (49th), Greece (54th), Ireland (58th) & Congo (60th)
Mexico, Australia, Sweden & even Greece were too good for us on the day.
But the others we pushed. Losing by 1 goal, or getting a draw (USA, Tunisia, Ireland & Congo. Apart from Aussie once at Eden Park, all the matches away or at neutral venues.
So in rough summary we have some chance I reckon to make R32 in 2026, ie get out of our pool. Will be tough, need some luck, need a healthy squad, with a good run of tough friendlies leading in, and a well set game plan plus stable side. Could happen.
Beating a team(s) ranked 25th-50th in the world at some point, is obviously the next goal, between now and 2026.
And re Bazeley. Niche Cache made a recent statement, that sometimes with international sides and their limited preparation gatherings, you almost want a coach who 'doesn't get in the way'. That is not having someone who's looking to bring in a whole different game plan they are set on, that risks bringing instability etc. National teams are always handicapped by their limited time together to bed in structures etc, none more so than NZ with players coming in from all over.
Likes of a Hiddink, Pochettino, Gareca are clearly outside of NZF's pay bracket. Perhaps the best we can hope for is someone that yes 'doesn't get in the way'.