Not 100% sure what you're getting at Metal. I tend to think of private academies as youth finishing schools and if a player feels he wants to do that, fine - hence, Rufer, Tuiloma spent some time doing just that. All feds run FTC/NTC 'academies' up to 16; not all players are in that programme; some may or may not be in private academies.
As to Chch at 2013 U17 level; one Cantab made 2013 NZ secondary schools team to UK; a couple went to this year's Milk Cup with the Otago team; Burnley academy are not getting best quality players (only out of town kids north and south of Chch) and APFA at 2013 U17 level have only 2 Chch lads - one who missed getting a trial and one who never was going to get one; the rest were/are in club/FTC/NTC. My point is that on a pro rata population basis - on average - you would expect 4-6 Sth Island/Chch kids in any given national squad. This year was one and last world cup was 2 (I think). Just seems a bit under-represented and doesn't seem to happen with the girls.
Some dodgy maths there. Christchurch's population is less than 10% of the country's (~350k on ~4.5m) so in a 23 man squad you'd expect about 2 from Chch on average. This year one and last time two is probably about right.
Expanding that calculation to include the entire South Island you'd expect about 20% of the squad (5 or so players) to be southern, but there are lots of reasons that might not happen, two of which are:
- Kids in the country don't get the same football development opportunities as kids in the city, so a majority of the south island is likely to contribute very little to the legions of decent footballers.
Well, although most of your stats are okay (except that it's more useful to consider the Canterbury region pop. of 559,000 rather than just urban Christchurch's 376,000 since distances in Canterbury are not large and talented kids commute to Christchurch to play) - and remember, despite the earthquakes, Christchurch is still the country's second biggest city.
However, it's simply not true that "the majority of the south island" live in the country.
The reality is that about 604,000 of the South Island pop of 1.04 million live in just four cities - Chch, Dunedin, Invercargill and Nelson,
Another approx. 120,000 live in the next seven largest towns (and kids in smaller towns like Blenheim and Timaru are certainly identified at age group level, whist a town like Rangiora is only 30 mins drive from Chch and kids commute).
So that's 724,000 of the South Island pop of 1.04 million - not far off 75 % living in cities and towns where they certainly get identified by the federation youth coaches.
In the past, I can remember in the 1980's not many South Islanders featured in NZ youth sides, although there was a golden generation of young South Islanders in the mid to late 1970's in NZ youth teams who went on to play for the All Whites e.g. Kenny Cresswell, Richard Wilson, Johan Verweij, Glen Adam, Richard Mulligan, Mark McNaughton.
In the 1980's usually only about two South Islanders per side e.g. Ceri Evans and Paul Brydon here v AFC Bournemouth 1982:
03/06/1982, Wanganui, Cooks Gardens, 1500 NEW ZEALAND U-19 0 AFC BOURNEMOUTH 5 (Milton Graham 2, Howard Goddard, Derek Dawkins, Ian Leigh) New Zealand U-19: David van Vorst, David Burgess, Ceri Evans [c], Martin Felton, Erle Fitzgerald, Matthew Cantwell, Fred de Jong, John Denham, Mark Cossey, Paul Brydon, Colin Tuaa. AFC Bournemouth: n/a Referee: Don Ratchford (Wanganui). Notes: Simon Millichip, Karl Bauerfeind, David Fagaloa and Matthew Walker came on as substitutes for the New Zealand U-19 team. The New Zealand U-19 team was coached by Allan Jones and Doug Moore (assistant).When you look at a comprehensive list of All Whites from over the years, a lot have been South Islanders, though it would take a lot of effort to sort out what percentage. Some of the prominent South Islanders on the list like Mike McGarry were never selected to play age group football for NZ.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_New_Zealand_international_footballers