I would like to say that Mexico, United States and Costa Rica will be in the top 3 but it will be either Jamaica, Honduras and Panama for the play-off.
I second your assessment on that. I hope we get Jamaica as I see them as quite inferior to Honduras and Panama.
Panama have been a strong side the last year with some good results against the top CONCACAF teams. Several play in Colombia, Argentina and Mexico, and in MLS in the States, one in Poland, one in Slovakia. Striker Yairo Yau has started a season-long loan at Sydney FC after a season with top Colombian club Deportivo Cali.
Honduras are looking increasingly strong on recent results - and were pretty awesome at the Olympics. I watched some of their games at London 2012 and they were one of the better sides, beating Spain and drawing with Japan and Morocco in group play - and unlucky to lose a cracking quarterfinal 3-2 to Brazil. They had talent like Figueroa (Wigan), four from MLS in the States and teenager Lozano from Valencia in Spain. I thought their midfield was pretty awesome - especially Martinez and Espinoza.
The senior team has more players in the starting eleven now who play at a decent level overseas than when the AW's played them in May:
Defence: Figueroa (Wigan, Premier Lge), Izaguirre (Celtic, Scotland), O. Chavez (Krakow, Poland), Bernadez (San Jose, MLS)
Midfield: Wilson Palacios (Stoke City, Pmr Lge), Claros (Hibernian, Scotland), M. Chavez (San Jose, MLS), Garcia (Houston, MLS), Espinoza (Kansas City, MLS), Martinez (Seattle, MLS)
Forwards: Bengtson (New England, MLS), [David Suazo, ex- Inter Milan, Cagliari & Benfica will be considered when he finds a new club]
Regarding the inter-continental play-off, my feeling is that Honduras or Panama will prove sterner opposition than Bahrain did last time round....