I would like to say that Mexico, United States and Costa Rica will be in the top 3 but it will be either Jamaica, Honduras and Panama for the play-off.
I second your assessment on that. I hope we get Jamaica as I see them as quite inferior to Honduras and Panama.
Jamaica is a pretty decent side in their own right (their win over the USA in the qualifying certainly shows they can play), but what makes them potentially a real danger is the fact that there is a bunch of guys eligible to play for Jamaica in the Premiership and the Championship who may now make themselves available for them since the World Cup is within reach. Nyron Nosworthy, who had a good career with Sunderland in the Premiership and is currently at Watford in the Championship, has started playing for them this year. Same for Adrian Mariappa, of Reading in the Premiership (previously he was with Watford). A whole bunch of other guys may join up too, which could make them quite a tough side (similar to the 1998 Jamaican team featuring Robbie Earle, Marcus Gayle, etc).