our team is very capable of winning this
the problem is that the preparation has been so poor, that we have limited the chance of this team pulling off something special
if i were to measure it, i'd say we have lost 2 goals from poor prep
in other words, no matter how well or badly we do over these two games, NZF need to wear the blame for this team performing beneath itself
I don't really want to make a big thing out of this, but I am genuinely interested in where your belief that our team is 'very capable of winning this' comes from?
Is this the similar line of argument we heard from some of the Nix fans earlier this year that it was Ricki who was stopping the Phoenix playing a better brand of football (perhaps true) and being more successful (definitely not)? Or is it based on the performances from 2009/2010 when the All Whites stunned the footballing world in firstly, qualifying for the World Cup, and then having an unbeaten campaign at the tournament itself? Or something third?
I've never really bought into the first line of argument. Ricki certainly has his weaknesses as a coach/manager, and some of his selections in this All White squad have been puzzling to say the least. But just like Phoenix under Merrick are struggling to put together good results despite a very different style of football, the All Whites too are suffering from the fact that a certain number of the players in the squad aren't really good enough at that level. Could Ricki have helped the situation with some of his selections? Yes. Will it make a huge difference in the end? I'm pretty sure it won't.
When I think of the All Whites, I can't help but remember a team that struggles to keep possession and attack with good structure against the likes of Tahiti, and requires an injury time goal to win a home game against New Caledonia at home, in a game that frankly could have gone either way. Would the team be better in those areas under a different coach? Perhaps, against that level of opposition. Would the results be significantly different? Sadly, I think not.
While 2009 and 2010 were great times to be an All White fan, I can't help but think that they were a product of a perfect storm that perhaps won't be seen in New Zealand football for another generation (unless we get our shit together here, but I have my doubts there). We had a bunch of All Whites playing and training together in the same, professional club, under the same coach as in the national team. We had three experienced, and quality veteran players in Nelsen, Elliott and Vicelich, who had all performed at very good levels in Europe. And we got four quality players in Reid, Smith, McGlinchey and Fallon (OK, maybe stretching it here, but he did score the most important goal for NZ in the last 30 years). We ended up with a squad of 12-13 players that we could not have dreamed of having only 5 years prior to that.
Fast forward 4 years, and what do we have now? Elliott's never been replaced. Ivan's 37, and very much on his last legs as a serious footballer. Even so, he's head and shoulders above any other options in defensive midfield. Nelsen's gone, and while he's been effectively replaced by Reid, even so the backline is still weaker than it was in 2010, and of course Reid won't be playing in those two games anyway. Smeltz, Bertos, Lochhead are simply older, paler versions of themselves. We argue and discuss here about Roux and Tuiloma, two young kids. About Kosta and Wood, two guys making their way reasonably well as professional footballers. And that's awesome, it's good for those guys, and the All Whites that they're doing a good fist of it. But the brutal reality? Players like that are dime a dozen for countries like Mexico. We have Marco, who's a genuine talent, but is recovering from injury, and is just one player after all, still trying to find his place in the sun at the highest levels of the game.
So when I look at the actual state, I think I've started to understand what Ricki's looking to do. He's going to stick to his tried and tested conservative guns, play guys he knows and believes can perform another miraculous backs to the wall Houdini act. Is this going to be successful? I seriously doubt it. In one game, anything can happen. I've seen and played in enough those to know that. But over two games, we might just be looking at one miracle too many. But that's OK. We are still a growing football nation. We still have a lot of work to do to genuinely and consistently content at the highest levels of the game. As long as we keep striving for that, is all we can ask for. And maybe we'll get ourselves to another situation like in 2009 and 2010, and it will feel good.