Hahaha I know you are very convinced Ninja but I disagree strongly on all points.
Even at this price, Bitcoin has outperformed the S&P 500, Netflix, and most other investments on a 5 year time frame for example. Earlier in the thread you argued that short term price action was not relevant in assessing a store of value, because it went up so strongly in the short term. Now you are arguing that short term price action is in fact proof that it is not a good store, since it has gone down so quickly. You must choose here or it's not a coherent argument. As I've said a few times, you need a 4 year time frame in bitcoin, that is a full cycle.
As it currently stands, the vast majority of bitcoin holders do not have an innate understanding of what it is they hold - it is purely a risk asset at the fringe of their portfolio, and so is sold first in a financial market such as this one.
My argument for bitcoin as a store of value is based upon the principles of the asset itself, not the price action day to day. Everything in its infancy will be volatile until it is properly understood, and then the buying behaviour starts to match up with the actual value proposition of the asset. Our debate right now is proof to me of this - I see where you are coming from, I've had the same thoughts, but I've done deeper research into monetary history and bitcoin itself, to figure these things out, and the results have been positive on the side of bitcoin.
I very much enjoyed your comment "It's toast, it's had its dash, time might just be up."
I wish I could stamp that right now, let's re-visit it in 2 years time and see if it holds up. It's a common refrain amongst bitcoiners to time stamp these types of claims and re-visit them. It's been proclaimed as dead many many times, and yet here we are.
Yes on-chain for all transactions would always be preferable in theory but I do not see that as any kind of realistic possibility. No competitors to bitcoin have designed a system that can do this in a way that is sufficiently decentralised, and I do not believe it to be possible. A good sign is that with all the new "crypto currencies" being created now, none are competitors or improvements on bitcoin's fundamentals. They all purport to do other things, and are far more complex. That's because the horse has bolted there - the first wave of "crypto currencies" after bitcoin attemped to beat it and failed, and now the only competitive area in the market is for offering blockchain services that are different to bitcoin, and compete in the space of Ethereum and related things.
You are incredibly focussed on the aspect of bitcoin that is the "coin" itself, and the fluctuations in value at a time when the world does not yet understand it. But this is just one application of bitcoin, it is so much more. The network that is bitcoin, and the wide ranging implications on finance, are the really important thing here. For example I attended a meetup in the weekend of very intelligent bitcoin thinkers, at the forefront of this in NZ, and the price action and investment side of it was not mentioned once in 4-5 hours. It is literally the last domino to fall in this, and is clouding the judgement of those who are attempting to look into it for the first time. Other "crypto currencies" also serve to cloud this view, given they are so completely different to what bitcoin really is.
I do realise that I am never going to change your mind, but I do still appreciate your time and attention on this, and the probing at my opinions etc, it's very helpful to me, and I mean that! No snarkiness intended in my posts whatsoever for the record!
Even at this price, Bitcoin has outperformed the S&P 500, Netflix, and most other investments on a 5 year time frame for example. Earlier in the thread you argued that short term price action was not relevant in assessing a store of value, because it went up so strongly in the short term. Now you are arguing that short term price action is in fact proof that it is not a good store, since it has gone down so quickly. You must choose here or it's not a coherent argument. As I've said a few times, you need a 4 year time frame in bitcoin, that is a full cycle.
As it currently stands, the vast majority of bitcoin holders do not have an innate understanding of what it is they hold - it is purely a risk asset at the fringe of their portfolio, and so is sold first in a financial market such as this one.
My argument for bitcoin as a store of value is based upon the principles of the asset itself, not the price action day to day. Everything in its infancy will be volatile until it is properly understood, and then the buying behaviour starts to match up with the actual value proposition of the asset. Our debate right now is proof to me of this - I see where you are coming from, I've had the same thoughts, but I've done deeper research into monetary history and bitcoin itself, to figure these things out, and the results have been positive on the side of bitcoin.
I very much enjoyed your comment "It's toast, it's had its dash, time might just be up."
I wish I could stamp that right now, let's re-visit it in 2 years time and see if it holds up. It's a common refrain amongst bitcoiners to time stamp these types of claims and re-visit them. It's been proclaimed as dead many many times, and yet here we are.
Yes on-chain for all transactions would always be preferable in theory but I do not see that as any kind of realistic possibility. No competitors to bitcoin have designed a system that can do this in a way that is sufficiently decentralised, and I do not believe it to be possible. A good sign is that with all the new "crypto currencies" being created now, none are competitors or improvements on bitcoin's fundamentals. They all purport to do other things, and are far more complex. That's because the horse has bolted there - the first wave of "crypto currencies" after bitcoin attemped to beat it and failed, and now the only competitive area in the market is for offering blockchain services that are different to bitcoin, and compete in the space of Ethereum and related things.
You are incredibly focussed on the aspect of bitcoin that is the "coin" itself, and the fluctuations in value at a time when the world does not yet understand it. But this is just one application of bitcoin, it is so much more. The network that is bitcoin, and the wide ranging implications on finance, are the really important thing here. For example I attended a meetup in the weekend of very intelligent bitcoin thinkers, at the forefront of this in NZ, and the price action and investment side of it was not mentioned once in 4-5 hours. It is literally the last domino to fall in this, and is clouding the judgement of those who are attempting to look into it for the first time. Other "crypto currencies" also serve to cloud this view, given they are so completely different to what bitcoin really is.
I do realise that I am never going to change your mind, but I do still appreciate your time and attention on this, and the probing at my opinions etc, it's very helpful to me, and I mean that! No snarkiness intended in my posts whatsoever for the record!