History for coochiee

martinb

Vaccinations are very promising, but what is the path forward? Clouded the future is.

Gordon Campbell always checks things up. Here his 2 cents:
“Even at 90 % levels of vaccination, the trade-offs involved in “living with Covid in the community” won’t be tidy….Judging by the Doherty Institute modelling in Australia, the comparable death toll here would be staggering :

Assuming 80 per cent vaccination coverage for only those over 16, as per the National Plan, there could be approximately 25,000 fatalities [in Australia] and some 270,000 cases of long COVID.In contrast, and if children are also fully vaccinated, national fatalities – for all age groups – would be reduced to 19,000 with 80 per cent adult vaccination coverage. This would fall to 10,000 at a 90 per cent adult vaccination coverage.”

Adjusting for population size, that 90% vaccination scenario would suggest the price of unrestricted “living with Covid” would result in the deaths of around 2,000 New Zealanders, or an average of about 20 deaths per day over the three months of summer.”

It’s not been a trade off people have been interested in yet, probably because it hasn’t been put in those terms. 

The week after the level drops to 2 and below in Auckland is going to be interesting. 
I mean I’ve had 15 months of wearing a mask every time I leave the house. There would at least be a bit of that in the mix you’d think.

Note that alternative research by the 3 Uni professors hasn't been peer reviewed. It seems to assume that Australia will go all UK, with a 'Freedom Day' and open up completely, so models very high scary case and death numbers. 

But that's not what is planned. More an easing of restrictions, and end to hard lockdowns. Here in SE QLD with no Covid, it's already masks on public transport, mask wearing at work (in offices), work stations 2 metres apart, masks out shopping etc etc. All that stuff ain't going away here or NSW & VIC, anytime soon no matter what vaccination rates they hit.

Not saying Doherty Institute have it exactly correct, and would rather see things start to open up at 80% adult popn vaccinated than 70%. But the plans here are certainly a more slower opening up than the UK. The goal should really be to hit 90% of adult popn fully vaccinated by Xmas, and same with 12-15 age bracket. Get to that 90% fully vaccinated level, with still lots of restrictions like mandatory mask wearing at work, shops etc - and health system hopefully won't be swamped.

Will likely take clear rewards for those vaccinated verus those that are not, to get to that 90% level. The carrot motivation. Proof of vaccine to watch live A League games, and all those others sorts of incentives.

Today's stats in NSW. 240 people in ICU, only 5 of whom are fully vaccinated. 12 deaths (age range 40s to 90s), only 2 of whom were fully vaccinated.

Covid is becoming a disease of the unvaccinated. Or crudely a brutal form of Darwinism. 

Yes is a very small number of people who for health reasons can't have the vaccine (and they deserve our best care in other ways), plus is number of mostly very elderly people with a very poor quality of life, who's families make difficult decision not to have them vaccinated. 

But that hard core of anti vax folk, they are plainly just ignoring all the evidence that these vaccines work and save lives. In life as an adult you are accountable for your own decisions, no one else is to blame. If you choose to get unvaccinated, there is a high chance Delta will find you. You are playing with your life, and maybe others close to you. But the stupid stupid decision to not get vaxxed was yours. Darwinism. I just have sympathy for the hard working healthcare workers that will have to deal with these fools on their ventilators.

martinb

Vaccinations are very promising, but what is the path forward? Clouded the future is.

Gordon Campbell always checks things up. Here his 2 cents:
“Even at 90 % levels of vaccination, the trade-offs involved in “living with Covid in the community” won’t be tidy….Judging by the Doherty Institute modelling in Australia, the comparable death toll here would be staggering :

Assuming 80 per cent vaccination coverage for only those over 16, as per the National Plan, there could be approximately 25,000 fatalities [in Australia] and some 270,000 cases of long COVID.In contrast, and if children are also fully vaccinated, national fatalities – for all age groups – would be reduced to 19,000 with 80 per cent adult vaccination coverage. This would fall to 10,000 at a 90 per cent adult vaccination coverage.”

Adjusting for population size, that 90% vaccination scenario would suggest the price of unrestricted “living with Covid” would result in the deaths of around 2,000 New Zealanders, or an average of about 20 deaths per day over the three months of summer.”

It’s not been a trade off people have been interested in yet, probably because it hasn’t been put in those terms. 

The week after the level drops to 2 and below in Auckland is going to be interesting. 
I mean I’ve had 15 months of wearing a mask every time I leave the house. There would at least be a bit of that in the mix you’d think.

Note that alternative research by the 3 Uni professors hasn't been peer reviewed. It seems to assume that Australia will go all UK, with a 'Freedom Day' and open up completely, so models very high scary case and death numbers. 

But that's not what is planned. More an easing of restrictions, and end to hard lockdowns. Here in SE QLD with no Covid, it's already masks on public transport, mask wearing at work (in offices), work stations 2 metres apart, masks out shopping etc etc. All that stuff ain't going away here or NSW & VIC, anytime soon no matter what vaccination rates they hit.

Not saying Doherty Institute have it exactly correct, and would rather see things start to open up at 80% adult popn vaccinated than 70%. But the plans here are certainly a more slower opening up than the UK. The goal should really be to hit 90% of adult popn fully vaccinated by Xmas, and same with 12-15 age bracket. Get to that 90% fully vaccinated level, with still lots of restrictions like mandatory mask wearing at work, shops etc - and health system hopefully won't be swamped.

Will likely take clear rewards for those vaccinated verus those that are not, to get to that 90% level. The carrot motivation. Proof of vaccine to watch live A League games, and all those others sorts of incentives.

Today's stats in NSW. 240 people in ICU, only 5 of whom are fully vaccinated. 12 deaths (age range 40s to 90s), only 2 of whom were fully vaccinated.

Covid is becoming a disease of the unvaccinated. Or crudely a brutal form of Darwinism. 

Yes is a very small number of people who for health reasons can't have the vaccine (and they deserve our best care in other ways), plus is number of mostly very elderly people with a very poor quality of life, who's families make difficult decision not to have them vaccinated. 

But that hard core of anti vax folk, they are plainly just ignoring all the evidence that these vaccines work and save lives. In life as an adult you are accountable for your own decisions, no one else is to blame. If you choose to get unvaccinated, there is a high chance Delta will find you. You are playing with your life, and maybe others close to you. But the stupid stupid decision to not get vaxxed was yours. Darwinism. I just have sympathy for the hard working healthcare workers that will have to deal with these fools on their ventilators.

martinb

Vaccinations are very promising, but what is the path forward? Clouded the future is.

Gordon Campbell always checks things up. Here his 2 cents:
“Even at 90 % levels of vaccination, the trade-offs involved in “living with Covid in the community” won’t be tidy….Judging by the Doherty Institute modelling in Australia, the comparable death toll here would be staggering :

Assuming 80 per cent vaccination coverage for only those over 16, as per the National Plan, there could be approximately 25,000 fatalities [in Australia] and some 270,000 cases of long COVID.In contrast, and if children are also fully vaccinated, national fatalities – for all age groups – would be reduced to 19,000 with 80 per cent adult vaccination coverage. This would fall to 10,000 at a 90 per cent adult vaccination coverage.”

Adjusting for population size, that 90% vaccination scenario would suggest the price of unrestricted “living with Covid” would result in the deaths of around 2,000 New Zealanders, or an average of about 20 deaths per day over the three months of summer.”

It’s not been a trade off people have been interested in yet, probably because it hasn’t been put in those terms. 

The week after the level drops to 2 and below in Auckland is going to be interesting. 
I mean I’ve had 15 months of wearing a mask every time I leave the house. There would at least be a bit of that in the mix you’d think.

Note that alternative research by the 3 Uni professors hasn't been peer reviewed. It seems to assume that Australia will go all UK, with a 'Freedom Day' and open up completely, so models very high scary case and death numbers. 

But that's not what is planned. More an easing of restrictions, and end to hard lockdowns. Here in SE QLD with no Covid, it's already masks on public transport, mask wearing at work (in offices), work stations 2 metres apart, masks out shopping etc etc. All that stuff ain't going away here or NSW & VIC, anytime soon no matter what vaccination rates they hit.

Not saying Doherty Institute have it exactly correct, and would rather see things start to open up at 80% adult popn vaccinated than 70%. But the plans here are certainly a more slower opening up than the UK. The goal should really be to hit 90% of adult popn fully vaccinated by Xmas, and same with 12-15 age bracket. Get to that 90% fully vbaccinated level, with still lots of restrictions like mandatory mask wearing at work, shops etc - and health system hopefully won't be swamped.

Will likely take clear rewards for those vaccinated verus those that are not, to get to that 90% level. The carrot motivation. Proof of vaccine to watch live A League games, and all those others sorts of incentives.

Today's stats in NSW. 240 people in ICU, only 5 of whom are fully vaccinated. 12 deaths (age range 40s to 90s), only 2 of whom were fully vaccinated.

Covid is becoming a disease of the unvaccinated. Or crudely a brutal form of Darwinism. 

Yes is a very small number of people who for health reasons can't have the vaccine (and they deserve our best care in other ways), plus is number of mostly very elderly people with a very poor quality of life, who's families make difficult decision not to have them vaccinated. 

But that hard core of anti vax folk, they are plainly just ignoring all the evidence that these vaccines work and save lives. In life as an adult you are accountable for your own decisions, no one else is to blame. If you choose to get unvaccinated, there is a high chance Delta will find you. You are playing with your life, and maybe others close to you. But the stupid stupid decision to not get vaxxed was yours. Darwinism. I just have sympathy for the hard working healthcare workers that will have to deal with these fools on their ventilators.

martinb

Vaccinations are very promising, but what is the path forward? Clouded the future is.

Gordon Campbell always checks things up. Here his 2 cents:
“Even at 90 % levels of vaccination, the trade-offs involved in “living with Covid in the community” won’t be tidy….Judging by the Doherty Institute modelling in Australia, the comparable death toll here would be staggering :

Assuming 80 per cent vaccination coverage for only those over 16, as per the National Plan, there could be approximately 25,000 fatalities [in Australia] and some 270,000 cases of long COVID.In contrast, and if children are also fully vaccinated, national fatalities – for all age groups – would be reduced to 19,000 with 80 per cent adult vaccination coverage. This would fall to 10,000 at a 90 per cent adult vaccination coverage.”

Adjusting for population size, that 90% vaccination scenario would suggest the price of unrestricted “living with Covid” would result in the deaths of around 2,000 New Zealanders, or an average of about 20 deaths per day over the three months of summer.”

It’s not been a trade off people have been interested in yet, probably because it hasn’t been put in those terms. 

The week after the level drops to 2 and below in Auckland is going to be interesting. 
I mean I’ve had 15 months of wearing a mask every time I leave the house. There would at least be a bit of that in the mix you’d think.

Note that alternative research by the 3 Uni professors hasn't been peer reviewed. It seems to assume that Australia will go all UK, with a 'Freedom Day' and open up completely, so models very high scary case and death numbers. 

But that's not what is planned. More an easing of restrictions, and end to hard lockdowns. Here in SE QLD with no Covid, it's already masks on public transport, mask wearing at work (in offices), work stations 2 metres apart, masks out shopping etc etc. All that stuff ain't going away here or NSW & VIC, anytime soon no matter what vaccination rates they hit.

Not saying Doherty Institute have it exactly correct, and would rather see things start to open up at 80% adult popn vaccinated than 70%. But the plans here are certainly a more slower opening up than the UK. The goal should really be to hit 90% of adult popn fully vaccinated by Xmas, and same that 12-15 age bracket. Get to that level, with still lots of restrictions like mandatory mask wearing at work, shops etc - and health system hopefully won't be swamped.

Today's stats in NSW. 240 people in ICU, only 5 of whom are fully vaccinated. 12 deaths (age range 40s to 90s), only 2 of whom were fully vaccinated.

Covid is becoming a disease of the unvaccinated. Or crudely a brutal form of Darwinism. 

Yes is a very small number of people who for health reasons can't have the vaccine (and they deserve our best care in other ways), plus is number of mostly very elderly people with a very poor quality of life, who's families make difficult decision not to have them vaccinated. 

But that hard core of anti vax folk, they are plainly just ignoring all the evidence that these vaccines work and save lives. In life as an adult you are accountable for your own decisions, no one else is to blame. If you choose to get unvaccinated, there is a high chance Delta will find you. You are playing with your life, and maybe others close to you. But the stupid stupid decision to not get vaxxed was yours. Darwinism. I just have sympathy for the hard working healthcare workers that will have to deal with these fools on their ventilators.