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Democalypse 2017 - The Election Thread

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Posted July 18, 2017 05:32 · last edited July 18, 2017 05:34

sthn.jeff wrote:

Bullion wrote:

james dean wrote:

Ryan wrote:

sthn.jeff wrote:

Ryan wrote:

And even if you do decide that you knew more than experts who have devoted their lives to this research don't the risks of you being wrong outweigh the costs?

In fact if everyone else is wrong and you are right then the main side effect to fighting climate change will be cleaner air and water and a reduced reluctance on finite resources.

i have not said it does not exist. What my contention is relayes to the predictions that are being made based on models that have proved to be inacurate.

Climate change has also been hijacked by those with other agendas beyond climate change and has become a means of welth redistribution

While I don't think that's true at all wealth redistribution is something that needs to happen, especially in a post work society. The top 1% have more money than the bottom 50% which is just insane. We have a surplus of food and resources for the first time ever yet people are still starving, it's barbaric.

The idea of a "post-work" society was predicted a long time ago and so far has proven to be completely false as a hypothesis.  Can anyone with any certainty predict what the state of the world and the global economy will be in 20 years given the rapid pace of change we are experiencing?  I just do not trust any predictions that far ahead

You don't need predictions to see technology impacting jobs in certain industries. You look at manufacturing in the US, manufacturing output has been growing but the amount of people employed has been decreasing - due to automation. We are only at the very infancy of AI and automation. You are correct that the rapid pace of change does make it tough to make hard predictions though the pace of change also makes it very tough for people to adapt to that change.

jobs come and go. New jobs replace old jobs and have done for ever.

Tell that to the people in the rust belt.

The next wave of automation is going to be in the transportation sector, in the US they're predicting 3.1 million job losses from self driving vehicles. What are truck drivers going to do? 

I'm a software engineer pretty soon my job will be gone as well, at some point we'll be providing a specification of an application to a service which will build what we want based on our criteria, one person writing a spec in a few weeks will replace a dozen engineers working away for a year or two.

New jobs won't replace old jobs. Wealth has historically been created by digging holes in the ground, expanding land, and expanding population. We're at the point where populations are shrinking or are on the verge of shrinking in the west, land has been over developed, and it's much harder to extract resources. New Zealand is actually better placed than most as our population will grow until 2050 and we have a surplus of resources.

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Unknown editor edited July 18, 2017 05:34
sthn.jeff wrote:
Bullion wrote:
james dean wrote:
Ryan wrote:
sthn.jeff wrote:
Ryan wrote:

And even if you do decide that you knew more than experts who have devoted their lives to this research don't the risks of you being wrong outweigh the costs?

In fact if everyone else is wrong and you are right then the main side effect to fighting climate change will be cleaner air and water and a reduced reluctance on finite resources.

i have not said it does not exist. What my contention is relayes to the predictions that are being made based on models that have proved to be inacurate.

Climate change has also been hijacked by those with other agendas beyond climate change and has become a means of welth redistribution

While I don't think that's true at all wealth redistribution is something that needs to happen, especially in a post work society. The top 1% have more money than the bottom 50% which is just insane. We have a surplus of food and resources for the first time ever yet people are still starving, it's barbaric.

The idea of a "post-work" society was predicted a long time ago and so far has proven to be completely false as a hypothesis.  Can anyone with any certainty predict what the state of the world and the global economy will be in 20 years given the rapid pace of change we are experiencing?  I just do not trust any predictions that far ahead

You don't need predictions to see technology impacting jobs in certain industries. You look at manufacturing in the US, manufacturing output has been growing but the amount of people employed has been decreasing - due to automation. We are only at the very infancy of AI and automation. You are correct that the rapid pace of change does make it tough to make hard predictions though the pace of change also makes it very tough for people to adapt to that change.
jobs come and go. New jobs replace old jobs and have done for ever.

Tell that to the people in the rust belt.

The next wave of automation is going to be in the transportation sector, in the US they're predicting 3.1 million job losses from self driving vehicles. What are truck drivers going to do? 

I'm a software engineer pretty soon my job will be gone as well, at some point we'll be providing a specification of an application to a service which will build what we want based on our criteria, one person writing a spec in a few weeks will replace a dozen engineers working away for a year or two.

New jobs won't replace old jobs. Wealth has historically been created by digging holes in the ground, expanding land, and expanding population. We're at the point where populations are shrinking or are on the verge of shrinking in the west, land has been over developed, and it's much harder to extract resources. New Zealand is actually better placed than most as our population will grow until 2050 and we have plenty of resources still to develop.