Otago dominated right up until the last 8 overs where Shannan Stewart and Craig McMillian took control. Fortunately centrals lost means a still a real chance of top spot and home final.
The situation
Otago 20 (4 wins, 2 NRs)
CD 20 (5 wins)
Auck 20 (5 wins)
ND 16 (4 wins)
Welly 12 (2 wins 2 NRs)
Canty 8 (2 wins)
Last two rounds
Canty vs Auck
Otago vs CD
Welly vs ND
Aucks vs Otago
Canty vs Welly
ND vs CD
Assuming that no further matches get rained of
Aucks beat Canty (although Cantys got a solid batting unit)
ND beat Welly
CD or Otago too close to call
Going into the last round that'll leave it at
Otago 20/4
CD 20/4
Auck 24
ND 20
Welly 12
Canty 8
Last round
Aucks vs Otago
Canty vs Welly
ND vs CD
Welly to beat Canty
If Otago beat Central, they play Auckland who will proably have beaten Canty, the winner with a home final, the loser in risk of been knocked out by the winner of ND vs CD, as it goes to NET Run rate for a tie.
If CD beat Otago it gets a tad more confusing.
The table will be as follows going into the last round,
Otago 20
CD 24
Auck 24
ND 20
Welly 8
Canty 4
Obviously not in that order,
That will leave CD and Auckland playing ND and Otago respectively with a win a gurantee of a final spot at least with hosting rights if the other loses or hosting rights if ahead on NRR. However if one of OTAGO/ND win they will be level with the loser which will send it to NRR to decide who plays the winner of the other game. If both Otago and ND win there will be four way tie on 24 with the final spots and thier hosting rights decided by NRR.
Currently NRRs are as follows,
Auckland 0.562
Otago 0.506
ND 0.300
CD 0.213
For it to be a four way tie Otago would beat Auckalnd enhancing thier own NRR and reducing Aucklands. The other two teams NRRs are too far of to be challenging.
Therefore in the event of four way tie the final would almost certainly be Auckland vs Otago, hosting rights dependant on the size of the Otago win.