If Watling is out, the decision is relatively easy for me. Ronchi comes in as a straight swap. You need a 'real' wicket keeper in test matches, where a half chance missed or taken can make a huge difference, and Latham isn't there yet, plus if we have decided that Latham and Guptill are to be our openers, I don't think it makes sense to bring Rutherford in to open and shunt Latham down to 6/7.
If Anderson is out, things get tricky - it stuffs the balance completely. I think Elliott is in the UK, I would be tempted to call him in to bat 6, with him and Williamson sharing 5th bowler duties. Failing that, I guess you bring in Wagner or Bracewell, but that makes for a very long tail, and I really don't think we need 4 specialist seamers and a spinner.