I'd guess Stop Out could lock in the wooden spoon and I'd guess UH will drop away with the departure of Wendi (though is any team going to be stronger?).
Rapa could be stronger but it's from players moving there rather than new ones coming through so overall the league will probably be weaker. Top 3 will still be Wgtn Utd, Upper Hutt & Palmy Marist (in any order) then I'd go Rapa, Seatoun, Stop Out
Cap prem is probably going to be much more interesting - especially with 2 promotion spots available this season