I cant see them separating out again tbh. all that work and pissing people off for it to last a season?
The answer lies in 2 questions -
What has the merger done for those communities?
and
What has it done for football?
To my mind there has only been 2 necessary and successful mergers in the past 10 years and one of those may need to split due to demographics in the next 5 years.
I'd say cash tech merger has given them a division 1 slot (or 2 in a few cases) in every single age group from 11s to 18s plus a strong mens section. They had a huge representation at south island tournaments in both coaching and playing numbers and will no doubt get even bigger. I think the merger was the chance for a new name, new colours and a new start but as usual the old boys network couldnt live without a lnk...
I'm guessing the potential split merger you're talking about is FC or waimak? (cant see coastal being the one needing to split).
I've already heard of divisions in waimak and north canterbury with kaiapoi town wanting to return and break free of the rangiora influence. Also been told by a reliable source hurunui may be entering in south island junior champs in the near future (but thats another kettle of fish).
Spotted Gings, Waimak are indeed the candidates for an unmerge. With the growth going in up the road at Pegasus and Woodend, plus Rangiora riddled with expat poms I am pretty sure we will see a move back to a separate Kaiapoi and Rangiora clubs. The impression I have is that if it weren't for the Fraser's Rangiora would pull out now. They had a higher profile and better performance as a club under their own steam and the Waimak setup seems to be less than the sum of 2 parts.
Same goes for CTech in my opinion. the number of reps is irrelevant when the same poor behaviour that led to the amalgamation in the first place is still occurring which you alluded to so well. The merger there has certainly done nothing for the game nor the community they are supposed to serve, which is where they may come unstuck. When it's all about a few old farts beating there chests about being the best club in town and defining that by winning the men's Premier league the game itself is in jeopardy.
Which is good for every other club 'cos while they are telling everyone else this is how it should be done the rest of us can get on with doing it properly on behalf of all players and supporters in our community.