Depends when the vaccine is widely available.
How do you figure that? everything seems to point to early 2021 (March/April-ish)
March/April-ish is when we start receiving it for front line staff and then people who are most vulnerable. The world needs to vaccinate billions of people - it's going to push manufacturing and logistics to the limit and also the world will be prioritising countries with the largest daily death rate over those with zero. So there will be vaccine here in March/April but by the time it's widely available it will be quite late in the year. Similar to the flu jab it will be first restricted to those who are at risk before opening to the general public.
Here's a quote from the PM just last week:
“This will be New Zealand’s largest immunisation rollout ever. Most countries are factoring the rollout to take all of 2021 and some of 2022 to complete due to its scale and complexity, also due to production and delivery timeframes,” Ardern said.
“Our first priority will be to vaccinate border workers and essential staff who are at the greatest risk of getting Covid-19. We expect vaccines to be delivered to our frontline workers in the second quarter of 2021.”