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Posted July 20, 2021 05:05 · last edited July 20, 2021 05:10

harrymc55
Mainland FC
We will probably get a good gauge of how things are going to be six months from now by observing the general public consequences of the "Freedom Day" relaxation of rules in UK.   If infection rates stay as they are now then it might be tempting to return to "life as usual" elsewhere too, especially with high vaccination rates.  If things spike up again in UK, we know it is back to square one.
Spike up?! It's 50,000 per day now. How much of a "spike" do you want?

If it is high infection rate but low hospitalisation rate and relatively few deaths then I imagine Hooray Boris will be keeping things open, at least that is my guess.
Personally though I think that the large pool of people carrying infection in UK  may lead to emergence of new mutations which may in turn cause higher morbidity / mortality, in which case lockdowns and restrictions will return.

However, I am not all that certain of what would happen, because UK is actually vaccinating their population rapidly which may keep the worst scenarios well at bay, for most, despite the infection (spread) rate.   

This in contrast is also the reason that NZ will continue with closed borders (relatively speaking) for a while still, as our vaccination rate is slow by OECD standards.  A large outbreak here would strain (pardon the pun) our resources immediately, just with the ICU beds alone.  It is cheaper to let people stay in MIQ, without paying, than hospitalising them, also for free.

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Unknown editor edited July 20, 2021 05:10
harrymc55
Mainland FC
We will probably get a good gauge of how things are going to be six months from now by observing the general public consequences of the "Freedom Day" relaxation of rules in UK.   If infection rates stay as they are now then it might be tempting to return to "life as usual" elsewhere too, especially with high vaccination rates.  If things spike up again in UK, we know it is back to square one.
Spike up?! It's 50,000 per day now. How much of a "spike" do you want?

If it is high infection rate but low hospitalisation rate and relatively few deaths then I imagine Hooray Boris will be keeping things open, at least that is my guess.
Personally though I think that the large pool of people carrying infection in UK  may lead to emergence of new mutations which may in turn cause higher morbidity / mortality, in which case lockdowns and restrictions will return.

However, I am not all that certain of what would happen, because UK is actually vaccinating their population rapidly which may keep the worst scenarios well at bay, for most.   This is also the reason NZ will leave with closed borders (relatively speaking) for a while still as our vaccination rate is slow by OECD standards.
Unknown editor edited July 20, 2021 05:07
harrymc55
Mainland FC
We will probably get a good gauge of how things are going to be six months from now by observing the general public consequences of the "Freedom Day" relaxation of rules in UK.   If infection rates stay as they are now then it might be tempting to return to "life as usual" elsewhere too, especially with high vaccination rates.  If things spike up again in UK, we know it is back to square one.
Spike up?! It's 50,000 per day now. How much of a "spike" do you want?

If it is high infection rate but low hospitalisation rate and relatively few deaths then I imagine Hooray Boris keeping things open, at least that is my guess.
Personally I think high infection pool in UK lead to emergence of new mutations which may cause higher morbidity / mortality, in which case lockdowns and restrictions will return.
The reason I am not that certain of what would happen is just due to the fact that UK is actually vaccinating their population rapidly which may keep the worst outcomes at bay for most.   This is also the reason NZ will leave with closed borders (relatively speaking) for a while still as our vaccination rate is slow by OECD standards.