Posted August 21, 2025 01:38
· last edited August 21, 2025 01:39
reubee
Monto
Napier Phoenix
XG is a load of crap, like bitcoin and personalised plates. the only stats that mean anything is the final score 0-4Bullion
image.png38.9 KBI mocked up an xg plot of the game. We played in black so the black line. The goals are the dots with the xg for the shots for the goals scored labelled. The first goal is the og, so xg is technically zero.
I did have a quick look for comparison with Heidelberg's game against WSW, and Heidelberg in that game had a higher xg (1.86 from 10 shots) compared to against us (0.46 from 12 shots). WSW had the same xg as us (0.84) from 15 shots, we had 14. Possession wise the games were similar as well, 69 to 31 in WSW favour and 64 to 36 in our favour. In terms of big chances, both WSW and us created only 1 against Heidelberg. Heidelberg created 3 against WSW and 2 against us.
Xg is a useful stat aggregated over an entire season, it's near useless in individual games. People just use it completely wrong.
My favourite, xG from a blocked penalty is approx 1.6, 0.8 for the initial penalty plus another high number for getting to the ball and shooting again one on one with the keeper from close range.
A more telling stat is that the highlights video on youtube only included one Nix shooting attempt, LBS kicking high over the bar when one on one.
If I have understood the Chiefy plan over the last few years correctly, on attack he would rather have a few high xG attempts than many low xG attempts, and on defence restrict opposition to low xG attempts.
you can use non-pen xg, as you're right a pen is worth like 0.86, and xg doesn't tell the total context of a shot, such as time and space around them, which when you look at the two low xg goals they both had time and space to pick their spots - whereas most of our efforts were under at least some pressure
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Unknown editoredited August 21, 2025 01:39
reubee
Monto
Napier Phoenix
XG is a load of crap, like bitcoin and personalised plates. the only stats that mean anything is the final score 0-4Bullion
image.png38.9 KBI mocked up an xg plot of the game. We played in black so the black line. The goals are the dots with the xg for the shots for the goals scored labelled. The first goal is the og, so xg is technically zero.
I did have a quick look for comparison with Heidelberg's game against WSW, and Heidelberg in that game had a higher xg (1.86 from 10 shots) compared to against us (0.46 from 12 shots). WSW had the same xg as us (0.84) from 15 shots, we had 14. Possession wise the games were similar as well, 69 to 31 in WSW favour and 64 to 36 in our favour. In terms of big chances, both WSW and us created only 1 against Heidelberg. Heidelberg created 3 against WSW and 2 against us.
Xg is a useful stat aggregated over an entire season, it's near useless in individual games. People just use it completely wrong.
My favourite, xG from a blocked penalty is approx 1.6, 0.8 for the initial penalty plus another high number for getting to the ball and shooting again one on one with the keeper from close range.
A more telling stat is that the highlights video on youtube only included one Nix shooting attempt, LBS kicking high over the bar when one on one.
If I have understood the Chiefy plan over the last few years correctly, on attack he would rather have a few high xG attempts than many low xG attempts, and on defence restrict opposition to low xG attempts.
you can use non-pen xg, as you're right a pen is worth like 0.86. xg doesn't tell the total context of a shot, such as time and space around them, which when you look at the two low xg goals they both had time and space to pick their spots - whereas most of our efforts were under at least some pressure
