So, I wrote a little script to simulate the rest of the season to work out the chance that the Nix will make the playoffs if they reach a certain number of points. I used the distribution of goals scored by the home and away team from 2000-2013 in the top 4 Euro leagues to generate a score for each team in each match, and worked out what it would do to the table. Reason I used that data is that it was easily accessible on the internet.
You can have a look at my code here: https://gist.github.com/42ae44a0e9d119e25190
Here's the results after I ran the simulation 1,000,000 times:
22 points: 0.00%
23 points: 0.00%
24 points: 0.00%
25 points: 0.00%
26 points: 0.00%
27 points: 0.00%
28 points: 0.00%
29 points: 0.00%
30 points: 0.08%
31 points: 0.95%
32 points: 4.57%
33 points: 15.89%
34 points: 36.16%
35 points: 63.26%
36 points: 87.53%
37 points: 96.16%
38 points: 99.78%
39 points: 0.00%
40 points: 100.00%
Note: the reason why 39 points is at 0% is that it's impossible for the Nix to finish on that number of points. 5 wins 1 draw = 38 points, 6 wins = 40 points.