If we were to win all our games I would say we would make it.
We would need to win two more games than the Jets
So the Jets need to lose four games from now on
erm... some of this maths is very wrong too
If we won 6, and the jets won 4, drew 1, and lost 1, we would overtake them. That's very different than them needing to lose four times!
Some people seem to forget that all the teams will be playing each other - someone has to drop points, not everyone can take 3 every round!
Obviously we're not going to go 6 from 6, but it will be interesting to re-jig the table at the end as if we had, and see if we would've made it. I think you'll be surprised.
Correct, my mistake - Jets do not need to lose all their games (but I would be happy if they did).
However, as per your maths, if we win 6 and they win 4, we would win two more games than Jets, which is what I said above.
We would need to overtake Perth and one of Victory or Sydney FC, which is a tad harder.
What I was actually trying to say, was my original statement: If we were to win all our games, I think we will almost certainly make it.
The Jets are hardly the hurdle, they will never win 5 games from their remaining draw. And I think focussing on Perth, Victory and Sydney is misguided - if all three of them win most of their games, then Man City, or even the team above them, will drop to within our grasp. Your mathematical approach doesn't work in a small league - even with 6 rounds left most teams are going to be playing eachother - at least one team has to drop points in every game. 40 points should always be enough to make the playoffs.
Patrick's simulation backs up my point beautifully. Looks like we may not even have to win them all...