To start, its unreasonable to expect every contract given to youth players to be a hit and demand a transfer fee or regular first team minutes immediately. That's simply not how development works. There are going to be misses but just because that may yet happen doesn't mean it was an incorrect decision to give the contract at the time.
I regularly watch the reserves and yes, those players mentioned are generally a class above the rest, though there are other players who are probably unlucky not to have contracts - Gardiner, Cassidy, McCarron and Flowerdew the first that jump to mind, maybe Gillion and Candy too.
I don't think there's any point looking at a preseason game where the first team was out of season and the reserve side had been playing together week in, week out in Central League. No real useful information to be gained there, 45 minutes simply isn't a big enough sample size.
I also don't think the number of minutes has a lot of bearing when the coaches who award the contracts see them day in, day out at training and are far better positioned to judge ability & potential than we are.
We certainly awarded those contracts at a younger age than the other names you mentioned, but that's part and parcel of an evolving club strategy to focus on youth as well as where the club was at that point in time. These players likely wouldn't have got those same contracts as early without the significant cut in funds distributed by the APL so they're coming through in a different financial environment to Surman, Old and AP. At the same time, the overall depth in the academy is better than when those players were promoted which makes the gap look smaller.
On an individual level, GSR has shown a similar X-factor to LBS in the reserves (albeit in a more technical sense than LBS's strength and speed), but had his last season derailed by injury. Walker had 24 matches for Fencibles before switching to the academy, so I think your minutes count is off significantly on him - development doesn't magically start when they join the club . We've already turned down approaches from the UK for Supyk too, so we aren't the only club seeing potential there. Even if he hasn't kicked on in his first team minutes to date, I recall he was clearly one of our better players at the U17 WC he went to compared to his peers, especially those not already in overseas academies. With the information available at the time, I think those were all reasonable contracts to give.
To summarise:
Players you were ok giving contracts to in the last 2-3 seasons: Hughes, Sheridan, LKH, Conchie, Loke, LBS, AKH
Players you're skeptical about: Walker, Smith, GSR, Supyk.
Even if you're right, its hard to say that a >60% success rate is an indicator of contracts being handed out willy nilly and instead says to me that we have a strong academy and good practices for identifying players with the potential to make it at the pro level.
I regularly watch the reserves and yes, those players mentioned are generally a class above the rest, though there are other players who are probably unlucky not to have contracts - Gardiner, Cassidy, McCarron and Flowerdew the first that jump to mind, maybe Gillion and Candy too.
I don't think there's any point looking at a preseason game where the first team was out of season and the reserve side had been playing together week in, week out in Central League. No real useful information to be gained there, 45 minutes simply isn't a big enough sample size.
I also don't think the number of minutes has a lot of bearing when the coaches who award the contracts see them day in, day out at training and are far better positioned to judge ability & potential than we are.
We certainly awarded those contracts at a younger age than the other names you mentioned, but that's part and parcel of an evolving club strategy to focus on youth as well as where the club was at that point in time. These players likely wouldn't have got those same contracts as early without the significant cut in funds distributed by the APL so they're coming through in a different financial environment to Surman, Old and AP. At the same time, the overall depth in the academy is better than when those players were promoted which makes the gap look smaller.
On an individual level, GSR has shown a similar X-factor to LBS in the reserves (albeit in a more technical sense than LBS's strength and speed), but had his last season derailed by injury. Walker had 24 matches for Fencibles before switching to the academy, so I think your minutes count is off significantly on him - development doesn't magically start when they join the club . We've already turned down approaches from the UK for Supyk too, so we aren't the only club seeing potential there. Even if he hasn't kicked on in his first team minutes to date, I recall he was clearly one of our better players at the U17 WC he went to compared to his peers, especially those not already in overseas academies. With the information available at the time, I think those were all reasonable contracts to give.
To summarise:
Players you were ok giving contracts to in the last 2-3 seasons: Hughes, Sheridan, LKH, Conchie, Loke, LBS, AKH
Players you're skeptical about: Walker, Smith, GSR, Supyk.
Even if you're right, its hard to say that a >60% success rate is an indicator of contracts being handed out willy nilly and instead says to me that we have a strong academy and good practices for identifying players with the potential to make it at the pro level.