What if we only get a 5 year licence extension? Would that hurt the FOX / SKY TV deal compared to a 10 year licence.
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Fox - well, if they think a more insular product is within their interests then happy days to them! Sure they might want another Oz team that can pull in those bigger ratings but as Patrick outlined, at the expense of the Nix... crazy really? and it isn't exactly going to happen overnight finding another viable, financial stable Oz club.
I would say that was a real risk if we had like, 12-14-16 team HAL, and there were many other well-financed bids in Australia for a new licence slot; then maybe yes, they could say "we think these new high-powered local clubs trump any value Phoenix adds to HAL".
But while we have a current 10 only club league and Australian teams occasionally either fall over or need FFA money injection (which a NZ licensee never needed), then I would see us being excluded from the league in order to let in say Canberra or whoever as low chance.
But then, I am applying common sense here, and that is not always how things happen.
Also, I would discount what The Chairman (Frank Lowy) said recently about Nix' future. It may have been for the consumption of the AFC powerbrokers in the Middle East rather than a genuine statement of uncertainty. He may have his own PR agenda to consider and I would give him that discretion. The real FFA negotiations with Welnix are conducted well out of the media coverage until the deal is agreed on.