Your math is bad. People still watch the nix in Australia, fox gets value out of those games. You can't halve the 10% just because they don't get NZ viewers - none of the other games fox screen get NZ viewers either.
IIRC the nix gets viewer ratings similar to CCM and jets games, which means fox gets similar value from the nix without the cost of having to broadcast half of the nix games.
As for value to the FFA, if you assign a dollar value of the fox deal pro-rata based on viewing figures, then add in the sky deal money, the Phoenix contribute more financially than both CCM and the jets.
The math is a bit on the pessimistic side, sure. But not out of the ballpark. Some Aussies are going to watch all games in a round, so Nix/Fox will pick up some viewers from that, but most are going to watch their team's game and maybe one or two other matches. But you can't ignore that we are not bringing a decent TV audience and revenues. Our games on Fox must get substantially less watching overall from Aus viewers, because, mainly, only one set of Aus fans is involved.
If you are correct we are getting similar Fox viewer ratings to CCM and Jets, that's positive, to a limited extent. I'd ask if that applies to this year when we are top 4, nearly top 2 or over all seasons. And FFA is, for sure, going to have less problem subsidising those Aus sides out of overall Fox revs, than subsidising the Nix.
If Sky revenues are as poor as we are led to believe then why would FFA be happy to give Welnix a full 100% share of the distribution to clubs which is basically financed out of Fox revenues. Sure you can argue for better than my 50%, but it's a haggle. And it's a haggle that may apply for many years with a long term licence extension on the table.
Just sayin. Don't like it, but you have to wonder why we've not clinched a deal yet.
Maybe Welnix are being asked to accept less in some proportion to Sky revs vs Fox revs.
I'm more than happy if I've got this wrong, but why still no deal?
The challenge to Welnix is then to somehow increase the watchers on Sky and the revs from there or other TV provider. FFA can only be expected to do so much. You'd expect NZF to also get involved if they have the brains to see the value of Nix to NZF. But I've just listened to the podcast so that sounds fudgeed.