You know something is wrong with their model if Williams' first minuite goal was only expected to be scored about 1 in 20 times.
Probably something to do with the likelihood that many of the forwards in the league wouldn't have had the pace to get on the end of that pass.
From what I recall, it's from the point at which he shoots. Problem with these HAL ones is that it doesn't consider whether it was a header or shot, or where defenders are. The ones overseas do. So in this particular case, it's probably based on past occassions when there has been 3 or 4 defender between Williams and Moss.