There has always been a lot of criticism of Ricky's substitution strategy even from his supporters. Here's some stats from an article on sporting analytics on the Times that back up some of those criticisms. Consistently bringing people on with 5 minutes to go and expecting them to change the game has always struck me as pretty unrealistic. Interesting if you're into this sort of stuff, easily dismissed if you're not:
"Bret Myers has a theory. It is a theory that he believes can help your manager help your team win football matches. It is a theory he first established by examining almost 500 games. He then tested it against a further 1,300 fixtures, drawn from the Barclays Premier League, from Spain, from Italy and from Germany.
Myers, a former professional footballer in the United States, is now an assistant professor at Villanova Business School, in Pennsylvania. His theory is: “Heading into the second half of a game, if your side is behind, it is important to make your first substitution prior to the 58th minute.
“If you are still behind, the second change needs to come before the 73rd minute. If still behind, the third and final change should be made before the 79th minute. The studies we have done provide a clear recommendation for managers when it comes to substitutions. The rule appears to hold regardless of quality of opposition, and whether or not your team is at home.”
If this sort of thing seems remote, abstract, it is not. Myers’s pattern has a real impact. “The study assumes that a substitution strategy is successful if the goal difference is improved in the end,” he says. “It has been found that teams are roughly 40 to 45 per cent successful when following the rule and 18 to 22 per cent when not.”
To put this in layman’s terms: if your team is losing, and your manager does not follow the pattern, your team has a one in five chance of turning the result around. If he does follow the pattern, he more than doubles his odds of success. That is why Myers thinks his theory can help your team win football matches."