If you are looking for an autopsy to say 'you are right' you won't find it here. I'm sure you'll tell me it's poor marketing and I'm going to tell you (as others have more than a few times) that NZ sports fans are band wagoners. Win, and you have fans. Lose and you are dog food. At the moment, the Phoenix are not a winning team/brand and when you look across their 10 years, the facts tell you we have finished at the ass end of the table more often than not. People do not identify the Phoenix with winning but when they do get a good season, as has been shown, they get crowds.
Personally I am disappointed with the number considering the catchment size (your argument) and 10k should have been easily achievable. Why did they not get it - poor marketing? It's more likely cause in the minds of casual fans, the Phoenix are tagged as losers. The words my wife's friend said when we said we were going was 'Phoenix? Don't they suck eggs?'
What worries me a bit is this has for me a slight feel of the Kingz/Knights in that as the team keeps continuing to not get results, fans keep dwindling until what do you have left?
It saddens me that I was right, it also saddens me that you were wrong!
Your comments above also go to show who has the "confirmation bias"
Any helpful suggestions on how things could be improved?
If you honestly believe that all this can be fixed with 'better/effective marketing' then that's all yours. I personally believe that nothing breeds success like success and if we win games, everything flows from there. I think I may not be alone in feeling that way as well.
One thing I will absolutely concede to you is that you would have gotten a bigger crowd in Wellington if that game was there last night.