Nix Transfer Speculation 2019-20

I'm not talking about winning them, I'm talking about taking them. Like I said, you get others to win them and stick my grandma on pens, she'll be right up the golden boot table

If you're not the one winning a penalty, you're literally scoring a goal any player on the field will put into the back of the net nine times out of ten. Winning the penalty is the hard part

Anyway, Aidan Munford? Young, very talented Kiwi keeper currently in the Oly Whites, just mutually released from CCM - do we rate Zac Jones as a prospective backup?

If you earn the right among the playing group to take the penalties then you deserve all the plaudits for putting them away. Non-pen goals is a joke of a stat.

<cough> Myer Bevan <cough>

hahahahaha no lie

Perfectly fine with least penalty goals as a tiebreaker for golden boot. If not, guess the FIFA and A-League law-makers are idiots then

A goal is a goal, how difficult it is doesn't mean shark.

10 new posts in just over an hour....got excited a little bit :-/

How long have you been on the forums by now G - surely you should know better by now!

Ah sounds good. Paulsen has boundless promise so would be keen to see him train with the first team

Non-penalty goals is easily a superior measure of someone's goalscoring than total goals (and non-penalty goals plus assists to then get someone's total scoring contribution).

Penalties are converted at an 80% clip and only one person on a team gets to take them. They inflate tallies purely on the basis that someone is the penalty taker, and could have gone to four or five others on any given team.

While there is undoubtedly some skill involved in slotting a penalty, the vast difference in what a penalty opportunity looks like vs open play/other set pieces make them distorting when trying to assess talent.

If we apply the same logic, we can't count tap-ins cos they're easy (scored at better than an 80% clip), then add the appropriate difficulty modifiers for long range goals/free kicks and one on ones if you're gonna be that finickity about it. Why is penalties the line that you draw? 

In fact, we should be discounting all strikers, because playing further forward inflates the chances of a player scoring a goal.

If you're gonna draw arbitrary lines in the sand, just blindly rely on xG ffs.

Ridiculous.

I see a reality gap here (how things should be vs how they really are).   So apparently someone's grandma would be a Golden Boot winner because only some skill is involved in penalty taking.  But even excellent players have all missed some penalties (Mark Viduka missed his against Uruguay in the 2005 decider) and some excellent players missed more penalties than they should have. 

https://www.ftbl.com.au/news/krishna-no-more-penal...

"Krishna has been riding the wave of a successful season in front of goal for Phoenix, notching up 11 goals and putting himself in second spot for the Golden Boot, behind Adam Le Fondre on 12. But his performance from the spot has been underwhelming, and his miss against the Jets – his seventh from 13 – was a crushing blow."

So I would agree with some voices here that goals and assists is one statistic, and penalties conversion rate could be another (but I would argue the rate should be counted not "per penalties taken", but per "number of penalties awarded to one's team" to reflect the opportunity rate correctly by removing bias when the penalty taker's selection is not counted as a factor).

Man, I'm with nzp, I thought there was something to get excited about. Surely all this can be in a different thread, so I don't get my hopes up ?

It still gets me every.single.time!

One day I'll learn..

Well, yeah, I would take xG+xA (from a proper model, like StatsBomb or Opta) to be a better measure of talent than NPG+A.

The key idea is that goals scored from the penalty spot don't reflect someone's goalscoring ability in the normal bits of the game, the bits that make up 99.9% of it, and that only one person on each team gets to take penalties (typically/for the most part) so you lop them off to be able to make a proper comparison. 

Either adjust for all types of goals, and use statistical analysis properly or look at the raw data - not an arbitrary middle ground that punishes players who are the best in their side from the spot. 

Although, tbh, if any club is using NPG+A as a main statistical analysis points you'd be concerned about their recruitment nous.

Nah, has to be boundaries scored surely. 

Announced today that Walter Scott will be out with injury for about 2 months. Does this open the door for McGarry to come back on an IR contract? We definitely need another option for FB roles.

https://www.facebook.com/wellingtonphoenixfc/photos/a.168313984238/10158301754909239/?type=3&theater

Doyle would be the obvious IR but given he just signed for ACFC and Talay didn't want him, I think that is very unlikely also. Shame Dylan De Jong signed overseas.

Who has been playing LB for the WeeNix?

McGarry is injured anyway. Missed last few Willem II games, and listed to miss this weekend's game as well at this stage.

The three left backs at the WeeNix this summer have been Noah Tipene-Clegg (2001), Kurtis Mogg (2001), and Harry Bark (2002). 

Sprowson and Wynne both right backs, right? Love the look of Wynne and Mogg

Played 62 minutes for their 2nd team on 27 January.

https://twitter.com/willemii/status/1221870765466955777?s=21

Wouldn't mind if we can get a decent fee. Would be good business.

surely we wait until after the olympics and sell him then

not to sure where to place this but think this is a very interesting article

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2718752-brentf...

A different market then ours so probably not the correct call to ditch the academy but interesting 

Is McGarry better than Doyle? Looked okay in his minutes here, but hasn't kicked on much overseas.

Yeah, very interesting. Brentford currently 5th this year in the Championship too and potentially not far off being involved in promotion battle. 

Are players like Piscopo, Davila and Steinmann all 'Brentford types' of one kind or another (ie, clearly talented, but for one reason or another haven't had their break)?

Davila too old if we're going by the article, Steinmann potentially too.

Has the transfer market closed in Australia?

Cool so there probably won't be a lot of action in this thread until later in the season when players start getting snapped up and rumors start to circulate.

Also, let's celebrate the fact that Libby hasn't been sold during the January transfer window!

Big difference with us is they were losing kids at 16/17 to bigger clubs which hasn't been happening to us. As the only New Zealand professional club, our academy has ability to get young talent to join us in mid/late teens, sort of opposite to them. Our biggest natural advantage in our league is being able to play New Zealand players as locals which other teams can't, so makes even more sense to develop that advantage as much as possible.

Interesting article though, and seems over there they need to look at how developing young talent can be made more worthwhile for such clubs.