I think PNG could surprise at home in this tournament...PNG and New Caledonia will go through group A and NZ and probably Fiji (although Vanuatu might run them close) to go from group B...Fiji for all the Olympic and under 20s 'success' aren't really as good as some of the other Pacific teams. The under 23s just had a tour of Brazil and lost 0-4, 2-4, 0-2, 2-8 against moderate opposition...even struggled in that Pacific Cup last year (although they 'won' the Olympic spot) winning only one game in that tournament against FIFA opposition.
New Caledonia could potentially have a pretty good squad if all of their France-based pros turn up. They have players in Ligue 1, Ligue 2 and the third tier, as well as lower leagues in France.
Recent announcement of intention to call up four France-based players:
http://www.oceaniafootball.com/ofc/News/ViewArticl...
They have a defender on the Winston Reid level in Wesley Lautoa of Lorient in Ligue 1 - aged 28, 12 years in French football, over 100 matches for Lorient in Ligue 1 but it seems that like Reid he won't be travelling to PNG due to only recently returning from several months out injured:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wesley_Lautoa
http://int.soccerway.com/players/wesley-lautoa/138...
But they can call on one of the stars of the last OFC Nations Cup, Georges Gope-Fenepej, the striker who has been a pro in France since that tournament showcased his ability with appearances in Ligue 1 and Ligue 2 for Troyes (18 first team appearances). Was also a prolific scorer for the Troyes reserve team, and 20 appearances on loan to Boulogne in the third tier last season (seven goals). 15 goals in 16 internationals for New Caledonia.
Now a regular starter for Amiens in the French third tier (16 appearances so far this season after signing in January):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georges_Gope-Fenepej
http://int.soccerway.com/players/georges-gope-fene...
New Caledonia have an agreement with Amiens who are in line for promotion to Ligue 2 that Amiens can retain him if they are still in the hunt for promotion in the coming weeks - if they drop out of the tight race, they will release Gope-Fenepej for the Nations Cup.
New Caledonia are calling up up three other players from the French leagues who played in their last match, a friendly loss to Vanuatu on 26 March:
César Zeoula (formerly known as César Lolohéa): midfielder, Stade Lavallois, Ligue 2
38 appearances this season for Stade Lavalllois in Ligue 2 (75 total appearances since signing in 2012)
http://int.soccerway.com/players/cesar-lolohea/178...
Jean-Philippe Saiko (striker, Poitiers) - top-scorer in his league this season and on course for promotion to the fifth tier.
Judikael Ixoee (defender, Carqueiranne), sixth tier regional league
Squad for that Vanuatu game:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Caledonia_nation...
They can also call on Roy Kayara who played for Team Wellington in 2013-14
and Mickael Partodikromo who played for Team Wellington 2014-15.
Big Pete 65, Christchurch