Our FIFA Future

Shhhhh don't ruin the bait . . . . .

Oh, I see...mea culpa.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/football/10202715/NZ-...

NZ to South America... What kind of crazy world would that be? Phoenix in the Premiera A?

No NZ goes to SA , Aust stay in Asia ....

Yep but in that case would the Phoenix be allowed to stay in Asia?

Obviously not going to happen. Hopefully though its not the phenomenon formerly known as Chinese Whispers and NZ have to play the 5th place SA team in the next WC Playoffs.

Someone posted a link to an article in the WC section about this around a week ago. The article was from 2013 and also mentioned Mexico moving South.

I think the old heads of NZF where scratching the bottom of the barrel to try to get a decent deal "money wise" throwing its 0.5 place as its carrot. AFC closed it doors on the idea of NZ playing in the last round of qualifiers long ago. 

NZF must have taken the idea to CONMEBOL to play in its qualifiers as TV rights + 11 home games against top teams...Money making machine would cover cost of travel and would bring in some nice sponsors etc.  This is the point where i believe Martin says" It must be something lost in translation".

Martin has slammed the NZ to South America idea.....and it was a dumb idea anyway.....not sure who made it up.

So it looks like NZ stays in Oceania. The only hope we have for more AW games against better opposition is taking our half WC slot into the last round of the AFC qualifiers. Seems like there is zero time to do this before Russia WC so we are probably in another home and away playoff which could be either from Asia or South America. 

So the status quo remains. Which is kind of disappointing. Martin may say NZ will play a bigger role in Oceania, but so what?. The fans know a dog when they see one. Games against island teams are a dog. There are no TV rights, the fans don't care, the sponsors don't care, the media don't care. It seems the players don't care either. Recently senior guys like Smeltz, Elliot and Nelson have all said NZ should be in Asia.

You kind of feel there is something going on here behind closed doors. FIFA knows Oceania is weak and NZ leaving would make it a lot worse. In the mean time AW football will be going nowhere for at least the next four years. Martin was recruited to enhance the AW game. Can't see how his announcement today does that.

I think there is a little misconception with this which I am not sure has been picked up and shows why I think this is an absolute load of bollocks and 'nothing to see here'. 

The 0.5 spot is not NZs - its OFCs. 

If NZ join South America, they don't get the right to take that half spot with them. That belongs to OFC and the confederation. I think its a bit funny that people (and I mean media) are writing that NZ is negotiating this when its not their 'intellectual property' (which is probably a better name for the 0.5 spot). It belongs to OFC and then FIFA.

When you look it from that point of view, there is no way in the world South America would want NZ to join their confederation. They bring no media rights and more travel. It would also mean that some tinpot island would get crushed in every 4 yearly qualifier for the 0.5 spot.

Cockerill has stolen Milt's idea (see page 10)

Might have to invoice him...

I would love to see this happen but don't think it will. Can't see Oceania (the countries other than NZ) wanting to remove themselves from the teat. I would imagine the middle eastern countries would love to get rid of the far eastern lot though.

Would be a disaster for our chances of World Cup qualifying - 2.5 spots for Japan, Australia, N & S Korea, China, us... 

On the other side of the coin, better regional competition.

Get a map out, see we are a speck in the ocean with four million people who most could care less about football.  What on earth can we expect?

err... are you arguing for or against a change to the Asian confederation with NZ in it?

It's not clear from your comment.

I love football, and therefore I could care less about it. Your comment makes no sense?

classic Leggy 

In terms of participation NZ ranks above France and the Netherland and in terms of interest we rate above the US:

http://repucom.net/global-interest-football/

There are two parts to the problem. Personally I think it would be better for the senior side in the shorter term to qualify via Asia. More meaningful games would help us improve at senior level.

However being part of Oceania means that all our age group sides have a much easier path to  age group and Olympic WC's.  It means also that our younger players have more chances to take part in age group WC's and in doing so gain valuable experience. If we were smarter we would also be making more use of this to help progress the abilities of more coaches than we do. If we had to qualify for age group WC's via Asia we would find as Australia has that its much harder and fewer of our age group teams would make it to age group WC's. Male and female u17 and u20. 

So a two edged sword, the invaluable assistance that being able to play at age group WC's  gives us in terms of the long term or the invaluable more frequent truly competitive senior level games we would get to play. 

I cant work out at this point work out what would be best for us.

I think that this under 20 World Cup should be a wake up to that theory. We have qualified (as we were the host) had a few warm up  matches (in fact had two years), had three matches and now are through to the next round. This would be considered a success. Does anyone however think that this campaign is going to sow the seed to a gun World Cup side at senior level? No. The Ryan Thomas's, the Tyler Boyds and the Rufers of these worlds are not going to make a great side in the future because they were or not in  this side. The only people who truely benefit are those who go no further and whose career highlight is playing a world cup at junior level. 

And how is this any different to the last, say 3, U20 WC's that NZ has participated in?

So we'd get regular games against 3 teams who regularly go to a world cup? Home and away? Chance to host the Asian Cup possibly or co-host it? Sounds farken brilliant to me! If we can beat them and claim a cup place, we'd have bludy earned it and be ready as all heck for the Cup. Regular international football against serious opposition and a chance to build up meaningful international rivalries. A dream if we could do it. 

Would the Middle East really be so keen to lose the East Asian teams?

It seems to me that U-20 World Cups don't mean much. What is the correlation from U-20's to senior football? In 2003 Spain were runners up but only two members of that team went on to play ten plus times for Spain at the senior level. All you need from an U-20s cycle is 3 or 4 quality players. I don't think you are going to get a team of stars and most of these players will probably end up in the ASB Premiership fulltime. I think this tournament does have some benefit to the likes of Tuiloma but I'm sure he is learning a lot more at Marseille. 

For me if moving to Asia allowed us to have more teams in the A-league I would do it in a heart beat. 3 A-league teams would give football in this country a massive shot in the arm. There are factions in Asia who think 1 Oceanian team in Asia is 1 too many.

I do kinda laugh at a lot of the theories here because there is one crucial detail that is missing in all of it:

FIFA will not allow us to leave the confederation and AFC would not take us if we could.

FIFA would not allow NZ to leave because then OFC falls away without a single team to provide any credible performance anywhere. OFC then becomes just a basket case outfit at the bottom of the ocean that gets $10m thrown at it every other year and the members think FIFA has made it rain cash. Ooohhh Fiji won a game, they also conceded how many? Those teams get better playing us and remember, it's very very rare they play anyone outside of OFC let alone friendlies in windows against each other cause they are poor. 

What do we bring to AFC? Another mouth to feed, talent that is not superior in anyway other than 2-3 players at the pointy end, another 3 hours to the far reach of that confederation and more importantly, no revenue stream in any form. TV money? Sky pay a dollar and six pence for the Phoenix games!

I get that right now, across some of our teams, we are a bit shark. The 20s are failing to show us the future, the 17s are a managerial shambles and our men's side has a TBC over them. That said, in our current state, we are still head and shoulders above other sides in our region and that's not saying a lot.

One last salvo - so everything mystically happens and we get to leave. Most likely OFC would be absorbed, redrawn with AFC and we would be back with the same basket cases people say we should escape from. Oh and throw in Australia and a couple of other pacific rim entities. Explain how that would help us or be any different than we have now?

There is no solution or quick fix. We are where we are in this part of the world and we just like have to take it. A simple "we should leave OFC and join AFC" is exactly that, simple and should be equally dismissed. Martin talks a good game in the press about making noises about leaving. Let's see how that's goes...

I agree with some, the boundaries need redefining. I think the middle east needs their own zone rather than be in the asian ocnfederation. Call it the sub continent if you wish.

Asia/Oceania could be joined and split into a north and south zone. Us, Aussie, and the Pacific Island nations in the south zone. This should also allow the various countries to participate in the Asian Champions League and the Asian Cup. More games, more competition and more experience for our players and the island guys too. It shouldn't ruffle any feathers and could allow the game to improve in some countries. Not losing the Asian Cup and Champions League would keep the Aussies happy.

Losing some of the Middle Eastern Teams imo makes sense. Iran & Iraq in the Asian cup didn't make any sense to me. The Asian region georgraphically would/should stop at the Bangladeshi border imo.

There are lots of opinion about what could/should happen regarding NZ Oceania and Asia. However Martin publicly saying that NZF are not aligned(there's that word again) with Oceania is the first official statement that we have had the NZ now see's its future elsewhere. I think the 5 games in 10 day Olympic qualifying organised by Oceania was the last straw.

FIFA are in disarray. There will be a clean out of the old officials. Everything will be up for grabs...even possibly another look at the Confederations. anything is possible. There has been  plenty of talk in European football about an over hall of the, outdated Confederation setup.

If NZF wants change its up to them to lobby hard. I know we are a small fish in a big pond but we need to make a noise if we want stuff changed. I don't think we can leave Oceania....they would not support us leaving and Asia would not want us. Asia however would love Oceanias half World Cup slot. Thats the carrot. With that slot they avoid a playoff against a powerful team(Jordan vs Uruguay last time)

As a fan I want to see the All Whites play a proper World Cup qualifying series with games against Australia, Korea, Japan.....no more of this Island nation shiite. Sure it will be tough for us to ever qualify for the WC but if we are good enough we could do it. I am sick of waiting four years for any meaningful games

There is a key bit in there that I like - a new person in charge could throw the model out on its ear. If that happens, all bets are off but invariably we would still be were we are with the islands and Australia but the dynamics of power and qualification changes.

For our part of the world, as Martin kinda alluded to, we work off the lowest common denominator and at the moment, they are absolutely in charge and as the performer of the group, we have zero input.

"Corruption does not happen in OFC" Oh yeah? Explain u17 women's World Cup in PNG..... Who is our president and where is he from again? That will be a fiasco.

At the moment, all bets are off on what FIFA will or won't do, what they think and don't think. what they will want to do and what they won't want to do.

Totally agree.

Germany have a few players eligible for the u20s playing in the Euro u21s (some with full caps), guys like Meyer and Goretzka (I think could be injured), Gnarby and Kimmich - could be a lot stronger than they already are. There are a couple from Portugal also missing the u20 wc playing in the Euro u21s, which double as Olympic qualification as well.

I don't quite understand the relevance of the question but in answer to it - there is no difference (that is the point)

What FIFA would or wouldn't do is a moot point right now. It would seem horribly depressing to me if we just decided that FIFA would never let us leave and so sat on our hands and did nothing. You could make the same argument with Australia and they ended up leaving. If being in the OFC cost us our only professional football franchise then we would be stupid to lay down and not try to change things. I don't think those wanting to leave are ignoring how hard it is to get things through FIFA. I think they just want to focus on doing what we think is best first and worrying about FIFA second.

I want a million dollars. I talk about wanting a million dollars. As the philosopher Jagger once said "You can't always get what you want"

Talking about wanting to leave OFC is all grand as you suggest but just sometimes, its just not going to happen however much you want it.

Surely you see that the game has changed Jeff? You keep talking as if nothing can happen but it is obvious to all that a seachange is about to take place. I wouldn't be poo-pooing what some of us are saying here as a huge spring clean of FIFA's leadership and re engineering of the organisation could just work in our favour. Our best chance of success is now before everyone settles back into politics as usual.

Don't get me wrong, I can see change coming however I look at the bigger picture.

Of the 6 confederations in place (and for the purpose of what I am about to talk about, let's assume the status quo) NZ will not be let out of OFC. If that model stays in place, we will always be in OFC. The islands won't let us leave cause we bring it what little credibility it has, AFC won't want us cause we bring them nothing and FIFA won't want to be left with 1 of 6 confederations that is essentially worthless. So to your phrase, nothing will happen. It's not always about what what we want but it works for everyone. NZ leaving OFC does not work for FIFA or AFC and the left over OFC. If you can't see that, then it's not me that's blinkered cause no one has once outlined the benefits to FIFA, AFC and OFC in allowing NZF to leave OFC for AFC. (This feels like alphabet soup). Would FIFA still allow the mandatory qualifying spots that are in place for some team to turn up and get trounced 8-1 on a consistent basis? How does that grow the game? If you take those spots away because of poor performance, how does that develop the game in the region? You have to think bigger picture more than just 'what's good for NZF' What does NZF get for going into AFC? We can't exactly say more money cause we have no idea what we get now or what we would get in a new confederation. It's certainly not pretty much guaranteed youth World Cup representation, it's not going to be an easier qualification path. It won't be to get a voice at the table (think about whom is in AFC already and how Australia are viewed). There are so many questions that start with "How does this benefit..." that do not get answered in a positive manner when you take into consideration everyone else's vested interests other than NZF.

If we assume change is coming, it's going to take a long time to implement. There are organisations that will refuse to break up and have to be dragged kicking and screaming into change. UEFA being the prime example because it thinks it rules the game de facto anyway, so from their point of view, why would they want to change? What does that new model look like? How does that affect funding, World Cup qualification, current confederation championships, Europes open market (means you can't split UEFA) At best, you can split Asia into 2 and rejig that, you could look at going to smaller confederations, let's throw out a number.. Say 12. It means more admin, more ways to hide coin... How does WC qualification work in that instance. How are existing deals/contracts gotten out of so no one is sued? So many questions.

It's easy to say change is coming, and it is, but we have zero idea how or what that will look like and in the space of a few paragraphs, I've thrown in a few spanners but you can bet that when this exercise is being done, this region of the world will be the last dog at the bowl cause we are easily the weakest part of the world in a football sense. It's also not something that is done by wriggling your nose or blinking and saying 'yes master'. This is change that will take in the region of 4 years to create at a minimum and that will just to get it through the various think tanks and committees that want their pound of flesh.

Something else for you to consider - just cause we sit at the bottom of the ocean in our 4.5m pax paradise and shout "this is broken" does not mean that others agree. Blathers re-election just confirmed that.

You can say I am backwards in being dismissive to change but I am being pragmatic and not looking at how this works best for NZF as the 1st stakeholder. I do believe change is coming, but I am also not so idealistic to assume that the entire model is going to be rebuilt from the ground up and we are going to sit here in our backwater and go 'shark we did well out of that'. We will always be tied to the islands and/or Australia because of geography. That is an undesputable fact and once that is seriously viewed as the starting point, then you will get why nothing will change for us. 

The only hope we have of change is new FIFA looking closely at OFC governance and going "what the fudge is going on here" - Do you have any faith that this is going to happen?

Wow, talk about a narrow view mate. Everything you said is all tied back to NZ leaving Oceania rather than looking much more outside the box than that. How about a total shake up of the qualifying process? from where the qualifiers will be drawn from? a total shake up of the Confederation configerations? could be an expanded Asia, a halved Asia, a Pacific Confed - who knows? What I do know is that if this whole FIFA thing blows up even more there will never be an opportunity as great to start again from scratch and you or I don't know what the real appetitive will be for that? In a perfect scenario FIFA will be taken over by people who are not corrupt and will make decisions based on what is best for the game. I think you are being myopic whilst trying to give an illusion of being enlightened.

A narrow view? You've kinda regurgitated what I said. I raised new confederations, wc qualification processes. You are right, a new model would bring all that up for conversation. I completely agree with your perfect scenario and that change is needed, but again, just cause we say it, does not mean that its going to happen because other parties will protect their own patch. It is very much easier said than done and taking the point of view of NZF and OFC, we have the smallest voice at the table in that. Most countries did not want change cause 2/3rds wanted the status quo and Blatter. We have to remember that.

For change to take effect you have to assume that every confederation that is in place already is not going to try protect their own patch. Thats how I was looking at it. If you are UEFA and effectively the most powerful confederation in the game, what incentive do you have to go along with a change in make up when UEFA functions fine already not withstanding the fact that being the most powerful and largest, they have an overarching open market Europe scenario in place already. How are you going to convince UEFA to surrender some/1 of their 14 spots. At the moment, we can't get anyone to give up even a 1/2 spot. I look at if from the point of view of everyone else because to get others to agree to change, there needs to be something in it for them. If you take even a half spot off one confederation, or rejig them that makes it interesting. Someone did up a scenario of east and west asia and splitting the 4 1/2 spots up. Straight away, you would only give west Asia 1 spot because of the strength and traditional qualifiers from the that region. Would they agree to that? Unlikely.

I think we are on the same wavelength just that we differ in the ease is which all this can happen and how it looks.

New Zealand becoming a member of ASEAN sounds good. PNG and Solomon Islands have all had invitations to join it and leave Oceania at one point in time. How long it would take to become full AFC members is something I don't know. It took East Timor 4 years as well as Northern Mariana Island.

My question is what did these members bring to the AFC that New Zealand wouldnt?.