"World Cup Predictor" on NZ's Chances

 

  THE "CASTROL FIFA WORLD CUP PREDICTOR" ON ALL WHITES' CHANCES:

 

Our chances are not good according to this popular prediction website which uses quite comprehensive statistical analysis based on previous results, team tactics and player ability etc.

 

 http://www.castrolfootball.com/predictor/grouppredictor/index.php?team=501

 

GROUP PREDICTOR (HOW THEY SAY WE WILL DO IN OUR GROUP):

 

Chance of progressing to knockout stage:  2.3%

 

Chance of finishing 1st in group:  0.4%

Chance of finishing second:  2%

Chance of finishing 3rd:  11.4%

Chance of finishing 4th:  86.2%  

 

Chances of Winning the Cup:  0%

 

GAME PREDICTIONS:

 

vs Slovakia:   NZ win:  19%      Draw: 22%      Slovakia win: 59%

 

vs Italy:   NZ win:  8%    Draw:  20%    Italy win:  72%

 

vs Paraguay:   NZ win:  14%    Draw:  24%    Paraguay win:  62%

 

  Probably quite realistic about our actual chances- and the odds of a draw at 20- 24% give a glimmer of hope.

But I say it's still possible to do better than those odds suggest.

We're an improving football nation and there's always a lesser-rated team or two who surprise at a World Cup (e.g. North Korea 1966, Ireland 1990 and '94, Senegal, Korea and Turkey 2002, Australia 2006)

Against such predictions as above, a point, let alone a win, would be some achievement... 

 

Past Performances By Rank Outsiders We Can Take Inspiration From:

 

 Been thinking about other World Cup outsiders who have surprised in the past and decided to browse through Brian Glanville's standard "History of the World Cup" in Whitcoulls on the weekend to refresh my ailing memory. Every Cup has had its Davids slaying Goliath. 

The greatest achievements to my thinking by the most rank outsiders (surpassing isolated successes such as USA beating England in 1950 or Senegal beating France in 2002, and the success of the Republic of Ireland in the 90s who were actually not a bad team) were:

 

1. North Korea 1966: Beat Italy, drew with Chile, lost to USSR. Made the quarter finals where they scored 3 goals against Portugal in going down 5-3.

It was the first time they'd entered the World Cup and North Korea had played virtually no one previously apart from a handful of qualifying matches in Asia- virtually no experience outside of Asia. A complete enigma.

 

2.Northern Ireland 1982: I remember as a teenager no one giving them much of a chance and lumping them with NZ as likely whipping boys. A team of no names from England's lower leagues(except for goalie Pat Jennings)... and yet... incredibly in group play they beat the hosts Spain and drew with Yugoslavia and Honduras, topping their group and making the second round. Outstanding for a place that's not even a proper independent country and has quarter the population of NZ.

 

Just goes to show, it can be done...

Let's hope it's us this time.