Because the USA and Mexico are each ranked highly, the first two pots are effectively the top 23 teams in the FIFA rankings plus Canada.
Therefore if you’re in the top 23 of the rankings, you’re going to be in one of the first two pots - unless some of those top 23 teams fail to qualify (which would mean that number grows). This is unlikely but possible; in 2022, Italy and Sweden were both ranked in the top 20 but missed the tournament.
Australia would also be helped if top European teams are forced into the UEFA playoffs, rather than making it automatically by winning their qualifying groups, because playoff teams are locked into pot four regardless of their rankings.
Either way, the Socceroos need to be targeting the top 23. And on the live FIFA rankings, they’re ranked 24th, having moved up two places over the past week.
A couple of extra wins in friendlies leading into the World Cup, or a couple of top European teams having to win a playoff to advance, could be enough to catapult Australia into pot two - meaning they would have play two lower-ranked teams in their group.
For example, a group of Spain, Uruguay, Australia and Tunisia could instead become Spain, Australia, Panama and Tunisia - a reasonably big boost in the Socceroos’ chances of qualifying for the knockouts (though the third-place team will also qualify from most groups).
But as it stands, Australia will be the top team in pot three.
SIMULATED 2026 WORLD CUP GROUPS (Based on FIFA rankings as of June 11)
Pot 1: Mexico (Group A), Canada (Group B), USA (Group D), Argentina, Spain, France, England, Brazil, Portugal, Netherlands, Belgium, Croatia
Pot 2: Italy, Morocco, Germany, Colombia, Uruguay, Japan, Switzerland, Senegal, Iran, Denmark, Austria, South Korea
Pot 3: Australia, Ecuador, Panama, Egypt, Algeria, Peru, Nigeria, Cote d’Ivoire, Tunisia, Costa Rica, Cameroon, Qatar
Pot 4: Mali, Uzbekistan, Saudi Arabia, Jamaica, Jordan, New Zealand, Paraguay, South Africa (as two inter-confederation playoff teams), Ukraine, Turkiye, Sweden, Wales (as four UEFA playoff teams)
Group A
Mexico
Denmark
Nigeria
New Zealand