Legend
when you say a messy next few months do you mean thousands of new cases and more deaths = messy? In any language that is a shambles.
NZ will reach 70% vaxxed at the same time and have successfully eliminated Covid from the community.
NZ will reach 70% vaxxed at the same time and have successfully eliminated Covid from the community.
2 hours ago
First a disclaimer. I'm both fully vaccinated (AZ), plus I've had Covid. Also my mum is a retired nurse who spent the last 10 years of her 50 year nursing career, as the flu vaccination specialist at her old Sunshine Coast, QLD clinic. So had a few interesting yarns to her last few months, since I've been over here in QLD. We got our vaccines here on the same day.
I was in Peru, until October last year. I witnessed Covid up close at it's worse. It killed the grandfather of my twin girls, September last year. Bloody awful time. Typical stoic older guy, who didn't complain much. Just said he was a bit unwell, by the time we acted by taking him to the hospital, was too late. We had to rent an expensive ventilator from a private business and bring it to the hospital on the other side of Lima, to give him a chance. The medical system there was overwhelmed.
Took 3 weeks to die. He never came home. There was no funeral - which for strong Catholics is especially tough. He never saw his wife of 49 years again. There were no goodbyes. Just one of their sons (twin's uncle), visiting hospital daily, to view him through a glass window thrashing around unconscious on his bed. A sharkhouse situation repeated all over the world.
He was a mild diabetic, but otherwise in good health. Still playing 5 aside football with his mates until 2 years ago. I'd guess he could have lived another 10 years, which seems a common comment about Covid in countries where has been a lot of deaths.
For me I had that weird lose of taste sensation. So yipe worried, got tested in Lima (blood test), which somehow came back negative. I actually tested positive later in MIQ in ChCh, and by then my viral load was low - ie 'historical' positive result.
So yes I'm more relaxed about Covid being fully vaccinated, plus some natural antibodies. And yes understand that anyone who is unvaccinated and/or has underlying medical issues, could be very scared of this disease. It ain't a normal flu, and it ain't a hoax. There is also someone on this forum (in Japan??) who has/has had 'long covid', which sounds awful.
But has now got to the situation in NSW & VIC, where they have to look to 'open up'. Lockdowns are killing people's mental health. Over 70% of the adult popn now in NSW have had min one dose of the vaccine. By mid-end October that will be over 70% fully vaccinated. Over 70% of adults (likely to reach 80%) will have made a choice to protect themselves against this deadly disease.
The vaccines are proving highly effective in stopping people from dying. Not as effective at 100% stopping people from getting the disease (so not as effective as the Measles vaccine), but highly highly effective in saving lives. My strong view is you are an idiot for not getting vaccinated. That's apart from that small number of people, who's health could be at risk from the actual vaccine.
Have a friend in Melbourne, who's been through breast cancer (double mastectomy) and a some other serious health issues (breast implants leaking etc). She had moved to a very natural/non synthetic lifestyle which improved her health. So she's understandably reluctant in many ways to take Covid vaccine. But finally this week she has decided to do it. She and her hubby are just mentally drained from long lockdowns (Melbs is in it's 6th!!).
However is no way NSW & VIC should be fully opened up until every adult over 16, has had the opportunity to be fully vaccinated. But once that has happened, you have to move to opening up. The disease is now endemic in these states, the elimination window is well gone.
Thousands of cases shouldn't be scary, as by far most people who test positive won't need hospital treatment. To be brutally cruelly honest I personally won't have a lot of sympathy for anti vaxxers who end up dying of Covid. You have made a personal choice, you need to live with that personal choice. I will sympathise with medical staff if hospitals do start to get crowded with Covid patients. Maybe there needs to be a brutal law that if you choose to be unvaccinated, and get Covid you can't then go to hospital, ie get treated at home with all the Ivermectin you want.
But hospitals should be fully resourced (medical budgets increased), staff salaries increased etc - if seems that hospital cases are stretching the system. Halting lockdowns will help the economy, some of that needs to flow through to improving the medical systems. I know this is tricky, and hospital systems can't be improved overnight, but this is basically crux of the whole situation now, that VIC and NSW especially will initially face.
In 2017 the flu killed 1,255 people in Australia. Maybe that was called messy, I can't remember. But a few thousand Covid deaths a year for the next few years may just have to be accepted. As I've posted elsewhere some families who hold POA over a loved one suffering from dementia etc, will just not allow them to get vaccinated. So amongst those Covid death stats, will be some people, who's families have made the tough choice that death is a blessing. That's always been the case, with flu annual vaccinations, and is more common than you think. Ask anyone working in aged/pallative care.
Otherwise most people over here, come March/April next year will get the flu jab in one arm, and the Covid booster jab in the other. Plus will continue to do the now standard stuff of masks on public transport/planes, regular hand washing, and social distancing where possible. That will become the way of life.
QLD, WA & NZ should totally do what is best for them. If that means staying as little 'Hermit Kingdoms' as long as they want, fair enough.
But don't get too smug in Aotearoa. What has happened in Sydney & Melbs, could happen in Auckland. As long as there are mystery cases the lockdown will drag on & on. Kiwis are generally obedient (a good thing with Covid), but the longer any lockdown(s) drag on, some will start to misbehave. All those vaccinated Boomers won't be happy if they can't put their dingy in the Hauraki Gulf, come summer. Secret church gatherings could pop up in Sth Auckland. Maybe a young Jewish couple will throw an illegal engagement party. But the longer mystery cases keep popping up, the greater the chance the elimination dream will end. Delta is highly highly transmissable, and NZ may just find that it too ends up eventually in an endemic situation.
First a disclaimer. I'm both fully vaccinated (AZ), plus I've had Covid. Also my mum is a retired nurse who spent the last 10 years of her 50 year nursing career, as the flu vaccination specialist at her old Sunshine Coast, QLD clinic. So had a few interesting yarns to her last few months, since I've been over here in QLD. We got our vaccines here on the same day.
I was in Peru, until October last year. I witnessed Covid up close at it's worse. It killed the grandfather of my twin girls, September last year. Bloody awful time. Typical stoic older guy, who didn't complain much. Just said he was a bit unwell, by the time we acted by taking him to the hospital, was too late. We had to rent an expensive ventilator from a private business and bring it to the hospital on the other side of Lima, to give him a chance. The medical system there was overwhelmed.
Took 3 weeks to die. He never came home. There was no funeral - which for strong Catholics is especially tough. He never saw his wife of 49 years again. There were no goodbyes. Just one of their sons (twin's uncle), visiting hospital daily, to view him through a glass window thrashing around unconscious on his bed. A sharkhouse situation repeated all over the world.
He was a mild diabetic, but otherwise in good health. Still playing 5 aside football with his mates until 2 years ago. I'd guess he could have lived another 10 years, which seems a common comment about Covid in countries where has been a lot of deaths.
For me I had that weird lose of taste sensation. So yipe worried, got tested in Lima (blood test), which somehow came back negative. I actually tested positive later in MIQ in ChCh, and by then my viral load was low - ie 'historical' positive result.
So yes I'm more relaxed about Covid being fully vaccinated, plus some natural antibodies. And yes understand that anyone who is unvaccinated and/or has underlying medical issues, could be very scared of this disease. It ain't a normal flu, and it ain't a hoax. There is also someone on this forum (in Japan??) who has/has had 'long covid', which sounds awful.
But has now got to the situation in NSW & VIC, where they have to look to 'open up'. Lockdowns are killing people's mental health. Over 70% of the adult popn now in NSW have had min one dose of the vaccine. By mid-end October that will be over 70% fully vaccinated. Over 70% of adults (likely to reach 80%) will have made a choice to protect themselves against this deadly disease.
The vaccines are proving highly effective in stopping people from dying. Not as effective at 100% stopping people from getting the disease (so not as effective as the Measles vaccine), but highly highly effective in saving lives. My strong view is you are an idiot for not getting vaccinated. That's apart from that small number of people, who's health could be at risk from the actual vaccine.
Have a friend in Melbourne, who's been through breast cancer (double mastectomy) and a some other serious health issues (breast implants leaking etc). She had moved to a very natural/non synthetic lifestyle which improved her health. So she's understandably reluctant in many ways to take Covid vaccine. But finally this week she has decided to do it. She and her hubby are just mentally drained from long lockdowns (Melbs is in it's 6th!!).
However is no way NSW & VIC should be fully opened up until every adult over 16, has had the opportunity to be fully vaccinated. But once that has happened, you have to move to opening up. The disease is now endemic in these states, the elimination window is well gone.
Thousands of cases shouldn't be scary, as by far most people who test positive won't need hospital treatment. To be brutally cruelly honest I personally won't have a lot of sympathy for anti vaxxers who end up dying of Covid. You have made a personal choice, you need to live with that personal choice. I will sympathise with medical staff if hospitals do start to get crowded with Covid patients. Maybe there needs to be a brutal law that if you choose to be unvaccinated, and get Covid you can't then go to hospital, ie get treated at home with all the Ivermectin you want.
But hospitals should be fully resourced (medical budgets increased), staff salaries increased etc - if seems that hospital cases are stretching the system. Halting lockdowns will help the economy, some of that needs to flow through to improving the medical systems. I know this is tricky, and hospital systems can't be improved overnight, but this is basically crux of the whole situation now, that VIC and NSW especially will initially face.
In 2017 the flu killed 1,255 people in Australia. Maybe that was called messy, I can't remember. But a few thousand Covid deaths a year for the next few years may just have to be accepted. As I've posted elsewhere some families who hold POA over a loved one suffering from dementia etc, will just not allow them to get vaccinated. So amongst those Covid death stats, will be some people, who's families have made the tough choice that death is a blessing. That's always been the case, with flu annual vaccinations, and is more common than you think. Ask anyone working in aged/pallative care.
Otherwise most people over here, come March/April next year will get the flu jab in one arm, and the Covid booster jab in the other. Plus will continue to do the now standard stuff of masks on public transport/planes, regular hand washing, and social distancing where possible. That will become the way of life.
QLD, WA & NZ should totally do what is best for them. If that means staying as little 'Hermit Kingdoms' as long as they want, fair enough.
But don't get too smug in Aotearoa. What has happened in Sydney & Melbs, could happen in Auckland. As long as there are mystery cases the lockdown will drag on & on. Kiwis are generally obedient (a good thing with Covid), but the longer any lockdown(s) drag on, some will start to misbehave. All those vaccinated Boomers won't be happy if they can't put their dingy in the Hauraki Gulf, come summer. Secret church gatherings could pop up in Sth Auckland. Maybe a young Jewish couple will throw an illegal engagement party. But the longer mystery cases keep popping up, the greater the chance the elimination dream will end. Delta is highly highly transmissable, and NZ may just find that it too ends up eventually in an endemic situation.