History for Bigboot

CL2 Round 16

Alright. A big weekend that could ‘almost’ decide the promotion race, or blow it wide open!

There are five games this weekend, and all five have something significant riding on them.

Douglas Villa v Taradale

Taradale: 29 pts | Douglas Villa: 9 pts
Previous meeting: Taradale 2–2 Douglas Villa

This is a potential banana skin for Taradale. The first meeting finished 2–2, so Douglas Villa have already demonstrated that they can frustrate the league leaders.

However, Taradale are now only four points clear of Tawa and Marist, with both teams capable of winning this weekend. They simply can’t afford another draw.

Taradale should have too much quality, but I wouldn’t expect an easy afternoon.

Prediction: Draw

➡️ Taradale to 30 points

Palmerston North Marist v North Wellington

Marist: 25 pts from 14 | North Wellington: 22 pts from 15
Previous meeting: North Wellington 1–2 PN Marist

This is probably the game of the round.

Marist already beat NW in Wellington and now get them at home. They also have a game in hand, so a win here puts them in an extremely strong position.

NW are in a slightly different situation. They can’t afford to keep dropping points with Seatoun, Tawa and PN United all breathing down their necks.

Marist have the better recent head-to-head result and home advantage. I think they edge it again.

Prediction: PN Marist WIN

➡️ Marist to 28 points

Seatoun v Palmerston North United

Seatoun: 23 pts from 14 | PN United: 22 pts from 15
Previous meeting: PN United 3–0 Seatoun

This is a massive six-pointer.

The table is incredibly tight: Seatoun are fourth on 23, while PN United are only one point behind. A United win would take them above Seatoun and potentially put them right into the top-four race.

The 3–0 result from the first meeting is also a warning sign. PNU clearly know how to cause Seatoun problems.

But Seatoun are at home, and on an unbeaten 5 game run. Meanwhile PN United haven’t won since May 16th (against Seatoun). This is exactly the type of game Seatoun need to win if they’re serious about promotion. With the Marist/NW game also taking points away from one of their rivals, three points here could be hugely valuable.

I expect a much tighter game than the first meeting.

Prediction: Seatoun WIN

➡️ Seatoun to 26 points

Tawa v Stop Out

Tawa: 25 pts | Stop Out: 18 pts
Previous meeting: Tawa 7–0 Stop Out

It’s difficult to look past Tawa here.

The 7–0 result from the first meeting is obviously a massive indicator, although I wouldn’t expect another seven-goal margin.

More importantly, Tawa are now second in the table, just four points behind Taradale. They’ve played one more game than Marist but have a very real chance of putting pressure on the leaders.

This is the sort of fixture promotion contenders have to win.

Prediction: Tawa WIN

➡️ Tawa to 28 points

Wainuiomata v Lower Hutt City

Wainuiomata: 12 pts | Lower Hutt: 20 pts
Previous meeting: 1–1

This is the hardest one to call.

Lower Hutt are sitting seventh but are only three points behind North Wellington and PN United. They’re not completely out of the top-half picture yet.

Wainui are at home and have already shown they can make this matchup difficult, with the first meeting ending 1–1.

I can see another tight game. Lower Hutt probably have more to lose, while Wainui can play with a bit more freedom.

Prediction: DRAW

➡️ Lower Hutt to 21 points

Predicted table after Round 16

The really interesting thing is that Tawa and Marist could both be on 28, with Tawa having the better goal difference, but Marist with a game in hand. That would put them only two points behind Taradale.

And then you’ve got Seatoun on 26, with North Wellington, PN United and Lower Hutt all still within striking distance. From a Seatoun perspective, this is a massive weekend. Win at home and they’re only four points off the top with the North Wellington game still to come and a game in hand. Lose, and PN United go above and the door remains wide open for PN United, NW and LH.

With no CL, WCL or Cup fixtures in Wellington this weekend I am expecting some extra eyes on a couple of these matches!