A League Expansion

Sounds like 2 more teams for the next tv deal: Wollongong (or thereabouts) and a 2nd Brisbane team. Goal seems to be rivalries in big markets instead of entering whole new markets. Sounds reasonable for the comp at this stage in its growth I reckon

http://m.theaustralian.com.au/sport/push-for-third...

.

That article sounds more like a Sydney based team rather than the 'gong. Not sure that would work. My next four would be 'gong & Canberra, followed by a 2nd Qld team & Auckland.

"Home grounds under consideration include Shark Park, Kogarah Oval and Wollongong."

I figured the Gong is the best one because its got a strong football culture already and isn't as directly competing with an NRL team (the Dragons barely play there these days, right?).

I think Canberra and Auckland would be sweet, but I also understand the FFA's reasoning behind expanding into markets they already have a share of to generate rivalry. However, Auckland would kind of do that (thinking of NZ as one Sydney/Melbourne sized market) but there's all the AFC special agreement BS that goes with that.  The key is really making sure that the clubs have strong identities for fans to relate to - the Heart never did really for instance, so that rivalry thing didn't work like the WSW/SFC one.

Really, the two Sydney teams are in different markets, while the Melbourne ones are in the same one, and the differences in support levels makes me question a second Brisbane team. They could struggle even more than Heart have to pull fans given that there isn't the kind antipathy towards the Roar that some in Melbourne had/have for the Victory. It remains to be seen what the Manchester takeover will mean for Heart/MCFC crowds, but I think that they are the most likely outcome of splitting established markets. Woolongong and Canberra make a lot more sense because while there might be the odd person who treks in for one of the Sydney teams, they are completely separate markets on the whole.

A 3rd Sydney team does nothing for the game. They will get decent crowds because of away crowds but they will be even worse than Heart. If they are put in a distinct location like Wollongong then it is a different story.

A second NZ team needs the AFC to agree .... a third Sydney team makes sense especially south west ... football heartland and heaps of players ... remember Sydney has population approaching 4.5 million and then the Gong to the south and CC to the north over 5 million ..

Campbelltown would be my choice .... close to the gong and close to the Liverpool / Fairfield area... 

I thought the talk was either reinstating the North Queensland Fury or creating a team in Hobart? 

Tasmania lacks any professional teams of any sport at the moment so while the market is small there wouldn't be any competition.

What WSW has shown FFA is they need to go to where their is a large population ... heaps of players ... and how to put this where Football is more accepted ... the two picks from what I can see are South Western Sydney ... this is a true heartland ... Ipswich in Brisbane [this area has heaps of players...

Most parts of Australia are still very much egg ball heartlands ... essentially FFA is saying we need teams from day one that can draw a crowd IMO the Central Coast would not get a look in today however it is there now ..

Remember we we go to 12 teams we will offer over 250 games and have to play into June so half way or more into the AFL / NRL / Super season..

12 teams is 6 matches per round for 33 weeks or 198 games + finals 5 ... so 203 games

FFA Cup 32 matches

Asian Champions League ... 18 matches ..

FFA cannot have any more teams struggling for 10 K + crowds than they do now ... PG / Heart [City] / Mariners / Nix ... 

Whether we have 1 team or 2, does it really matter to the AFC? Auckland is too big to ignore, I'm sure the AFC issues can be worked out with them.

Sydney is a large market but setting up another franchise right besides the newest one will just cannibalize their fledgling supporter base. The 'gong has a very strong football heritage and an existing stadium to use. It makes much more sense. 

I would imagine that there would now be a clean sheet with AFC regarding a NZ team in the A League. The AFC opposition may well have died with the demise of Bin....... With corruption being so rife in AFC during his tenure, who knows what the feeling is now or if there was ever any objection outside of Bin whatsit jockeying for some under-the-table pay out to admit a Kiwi team to the A League.

The problem is Australia actually has a pretty small population, outside of the big four cities there isn't much out there - Auckland and probably Christchurch are almost inevitable.

This is why I doubt there will ever be relegation and promotion, there isn't the population to be able to handle it.

There was talk awhile back about the A-League expanding further outside of Australia, elsewhere into Asia.

Wollongong's pop is 291,000 in last census. 10th largest city in Oz, but (crucially) it's able to draw on many more supporters from Sydney's south-west (as previously noted), most of whom would find it easier to drive to the gong for Friday night/weekend games than through Sydney's built-up western subs to Pirnak Stadium. Having been a regular summer visitor to the gong and neighbouring seaside towns over the last 5 plus years, it's always notable how many 'westies' hit the southern beaches at weekends, many of them of European and middle eastern descent.

Based on what ... it does matter to the AFC ... if for a world cup place the winner from Oceania plays the fifth Asian team the AFC see by NZ playing in the A-League it gives NZ a better chance ...  

can we change midfielders "this" button into a "kudos" button?

Shouldn't you be out enjoying yourself chatting up the locals?

I think very clever once I work out what it means... moving along the issue FFA have is they want two more teams and they seem to want them to be more like WSW than the Gold Coast and Gallops often used phase is fish where the fish are...

Gallop is looking to large populations bases and areas that have heaps of players and a more accepting football market ... in most parts of Australia AFL / RL / say Union are the rusted on hard core codes ...

The only areas were Football could call true heartland status is Western Sydney, Hunter / Newcastle [this shared with RL] parts of Melbourne and the Gong again shared with RL ...

Meaning finding a second team other than a team from somewhere south to south west Sydney is difficult ..

Choices are second Brisbane ... but Brisbane is a RL city and the Reds [union] have a big following .. however on the plus side in parts they have heaps of players and a council that wants into the A-League ... plus two million + people ..

Auckland heaps of AFC issues before its off the ground however a large population base and giving the Nix a derby match would be good... however the AFC issue[s] are there .. If Australian Football struggles for media space from the egg ball codes ... NZ is worse and looks from afar to be rugby first daylight second, moonlight third RL then Football ... 

Third Melbourne ... way to early ...

Where else ... ?????? regional centres are not considered as they are to small ... as I posted earlier the Central Coast would not get in today ..

However it seems FFA want the 250+ games for the media deal ... and they want the new teams to hit the ground running ...

Out of interest where would your two expansion teams go ... and do you see an easy solution to AFC issues and if so what is it ... 

Those were the days....

RRRRrrrrrrrrr

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVdOQvx379Y

Not to soon for 3rd team in Melbourne and New Fan Zone rules make it possible

Doesn't it depend whether you want to grow the competition or the game? Campbelltown mentioned earlier struggles to get crowds for rugby league games sometimes. They will probably end up with a higher average attendance than the 'nix but only because they will get lots of away crowds. There is no one pushing very strongly for a third Sydney team. I think having two teams is enough and it means when there is a derby it is truly one side of the city versus the other. When it was just Sydney FC many people in Western Sydney had no one to support. Now everyone in Sydney has someone to support. A new team is more likely to dilute support or get very little support. 

Again everyone in Brisbane already has a team to support and it doesn't seem like there are huge geographical divides in Brisbane. If there is another team they should play in a distinct area like Sunshine Coast or Ipswich but neither seem big enough population centres for now.

I think Northern Fury should be one team to come in. They are putting in a lot of effort and are competing in NPL Queensland with crowds of above 1,000. Northern Fury will be a small market team in the A-League would probably average crowds of about 5,000. However, there would be 5,000 fans who would not have the opportunity to attend professional football otherwise. 

Same deal with Canberra. A new Canberra team would also be relatively small but would bring new fans in who would not otherwise attend games.

The only team from NSW I would consider is Wollongong because they will exist in a distinct location and have football culture.

Then I would look at Tassie and another NZ team which will probably have to come from Christchurch.

1030pm on a Sunday night after a long day. I was getting ready for bed! 

Now 7am waiting to get up and get some breakfast. 

Jerzy, I only go on here when I'm bored at the hotel or can't sleep! 

So I'm not a complete saddo, promise :p

Ryan

Suggest you read this ... its part 1 and then read part 2 ... it is an analysis of where to place Football teams in Australia ... Leopolmethod is arguably the best Australian / New Zealand site when discussing some of the bigger issues... this is a little dated now but the it is the kinda analysis I assume FFA are doing now ... Fury is in a area with a population of around 100K ... Campbelltown on all sides has Football heartland areas and yes RL cannot get a crowd there ... go to Liverpool one day and you will see why... 

http://leopoldmethod.com.au/in-search-of-blue-oceans-an-analysis-on-the-a-league-business-model-part-1/

Seems like we discuss this every 3-4 months

I don't think you have really addressed any of the points I have made.

- Townsville has a population of 189,000

- Campbelltown is a long way from anywhere in Sydney and only has a population of 145,000. 

- Parramatta Stadium is 14km from Liverpool; Liverpool is 17km from Campbelltown Stadium. I don't see why someone from Western Sydney would support a Campbelltown team over the Wanderers.

That guy admits in his own analysis that you wouldn't have football teams in Central Coast and Wellington because the business model just doesn't exist. This is true but the teams do exist because rich people pay for them to exist. It seems Newcastle didn't make the 250,000 threshold and nor did Perth or Brisbane! You say the Central Coast wouldn't be admitted now but doesn't that show the flawed thinking when the 2nd most successful club in A-League history (based on total competition points) would not be admitted? Nothing that guy says is wrong by any means but a football team will exist if people are willing to fund it. The business case is there for Melbourne Heart but they were a disaster.

The business model certainly exists for Campbelltown. They will be more successful than NQ Fury simply because they will get 3 crowds of 20k each season. But again, that grows the A-League but it doesn't grow the sport. I find it hard to believe a mad football fan in Campbelltown or the surrounding area would not currently jump on the Wanderers. I think splitting a city in two is more effective than splitting it in 3 in terms of creating a rivalry. 

I know that NQ Fury or Canberra would add 5-6,000 fans to the competition who would not otherwise or do not have the opportunity to attend A-League games. If they have the financial backers to sustain losses then why shouldn't they be allowed into the competition anymore than we are allowed to continue in it?

Campbelltown is part of great Sydney and part of Western Sydney ... in and around Campbelltown there is a population of roughly 700, 000, and if you add the gong about one million people within say 45 minutes ...

There is a freeway connecting the South West of Sydney to Campbelltown for most less than 30 mintues ...wheras Parramatta is old roads and traffic not sure but a lot longer ... 

Townsville has a population of 189, 000 and no other major towns within a reasonable drive... Townsille is  RL heartland ... Liverpool / Fairfield and most areas in South Western Sydney are football first ... RL a distant second .. the gong is a shared heartland with RL... massive player numbers...

Then as you say there is the derby matches ... 

I don't think you have any appreciation how much support there is the Liverpool / Fairfield area for Football ... I worked there for about 10 years and can tell you it was rare to see a RL shirt being worn... however you saw heaps of Football shirts ..

I might add the home of some of the biggest NSL teams and their fan base as well... 

Finally Sydney has 4.5 million people ... three teams is 1.5 million each ... that is still a big number ...

Cambelltown plus the gong 1 mill pop. Full of 'ethnics'. Next A-League franchise IMO. No contest.

People keep talking about Campbeltown not attracting rugby league fans to Wests Tigers games there - totally irrelevant in my view. Maybe the answer is that the populace are bigger football fans than league fans so don't turn up to rugby league.... Edit: Agree with the couple of posts previous to mine. Heaps of football support in Southern Sydney.

So you are telling me that there are about 8,000 people in South Western Sydney who do not currently attend A-League games but would attend games played by a Campbelltown team? If you were in Liverpool then I really struggle to believe you wouldn't support Western Sydney right now. I struggle to believe that a team like Western Sydney do not actually represent all of Western Sydney. I haven't actually lived in Western Sydney but I struggle to believe it.

Once again I haven't said Campbelltown wouldn't be successful. I just think it's success would take away from two already established teams, would be propped up by away fans and take away the excitement of a derby which truly splits a city down the middle. You would create a bigger and better competition yes but the point of expansion to me is to grow the game. That means you go to the heartlands of other teams and try to establish yourself there. If someone wants to pay to subsidise an unsustainable business model then why should the FFA care if that unsustainable business model helps you boost player numbers and TV audience in a part of the country where you are not strong?

I mean you could probably have six teams in Sydney more successful than the Phoenix if you tried but diminishing returns sets in big time.

The 'gong has a strong local (and surrounding) football identity that isn't being satisfied by either Sydney FC or WSW. It has its own leagues that are separate from the Sydney leagues, and potential supporter base stretching not just towards Sydney's west and the immediate north but to the south and south-west, with frequent direct trains to Kiama & Nowra, and a main arterial road into the southern tablelands, to Bowral, etc.

Ryan54

You puzzle me ... you said putting a team in a RL heartland with a population of 189 K  ... is better than putting a team in a known Football Heartland with roughly  one million people within a similar travelling distance to the 189 K in a RL heart land... I just cannot understand your logic ... 

If I look at both the NRL & AFL they also have most of their clubs in Sydney for RL 9 of 16 and in Melbourne 10 of 18 for AFL... The AFL only has teams in major capital cities ... in RL only Newcastle Knights ... Maybe the gold Coast as well for both codes ... regional areas need huge percentages of the population . The AFL won't put a side in Tassie and yet AFL in Tassie is akin to rugby in NZ... 

The in search of blue oceans site has a break down of numbers players etc... its a business and its a numbers game...

Auckland is IMO an obvious choice if AFC would allow [I doubt they would] ...

Maybe you are aware of flaws in the work done by sporting admin types and the analysis they do ...

The plan is simple have a 12 team competition ... 33 rounds  6 matches per round + FFA Cup, plus ACL ie 250 + games ... they want most teams with crowds ... essentially they want the new teams to be 10 K + from day one ... and they want them to be playing to an area that will effect TV ratings ... representing one million folk just maybe can get more eyes on the TV screen than 189 K ..

I do wonder aloud how you see a Townsville team getting better crowds and more TV rating than a team in SWS ... never mind the extra media a SWS team would get ... 

The twelve team is the real hard one ... because most parts of Australia,,,  Football has a very low conversion rate from player / coach / parent to going to games and watching on TV ... most of Australia is egg ball heartland and where ever the other side goes it will be difficult for them... 

To add to the argument

Sydney has roughly 4.5 million people .. South Western Sydney if Parramatta is the line has about 2 million ..

WS can be divided into three different areas… North, Central & South… In the North there is no sporting team but generally conceded to be a RL heartland with Football a close second and about 500 K people… Central the railway line from Parramatta to Penrith a RL heartland with Football a close second and about 800 K people .. South a Football heartland with RL a fair way behind about 700 K…

East of Parramatta the towns of Ryde, Lidcombe, Bankstown, Eastwood, Epping these are shared heartland between Football & Rl and they are sorta equal heartlands and about 450K people live here.. these folk are all within 20 minutes of Parramatta and make up a huge part of the WSW fan base.

Add in these areas you have well over 100K registered players ... and 11 I think former NSL clubs... 

I'm sorry but once again I think you have missed my whole argument. Maybe I'm not wording it correctly.

I have never said that a Townsville team will get better crowds and more TV ratings than a team in SWS. I have never said that. I have not said that because that is ridiculous and I do not believe it. 

What I have said (continually) is that I believe a team from Townsville will bring more new fans into the league. I believe that a team from Townsville would probably average about 5,500. This team from Campbelltown will probably average about 9,000 courtesy of 3 home sell out derby matches and some Western Sydney and Sydney FC fans jumping on board. However, how many new fans will they introduce into the league? How many people who don't currently go to games will now go to games because of a team in Campbelltown? That's my point. Yes, a Campbelltown team would probably make the league look better but football in Australia wouldn't be any more healthier. The Wanderers would be a little less strong and you would just have the same number of fans going to more games. 

You have clearly lived in Western Sydney. Are there really people in Liverpool partial to the A-League who feel they have no team to support? I find that hard to believe. 

I'm not saying any team should or shouldn't be brought into the league. All I'm saying is that when you slice up a city you have to consider the costs to other teams. You also need to consider the affects which a new team will have on the game itself rather than just whether or not that team has a good business model. Townsville may or may not be a good idea - it's just an example I used because they are the most vocal about rejoining the league. Canberra, Wollongong, Tasmania, Christchurch whatever. We should pick whichever of those teams have the best business case and financial backers. If Campbelltown can show it can bring an equal number of new fans into the league as those teams then of course they should be considered.

The one thing you ignore in all your business models is that almost every team needs a financial backer. If you go through the teams they all have strong backers. Melbourne Victory and Sydney FC are the only teams who probably have a good business case. Even a team like Brisbane needed the Bakrie Group to bail them out and wouldn't have won the league without their support. All this talk about how many people would or wouldn't support a Campbelltown team is pointless if no one stumps up with the case. In NQ Fury they have the community model. I don't know if that can be successful but they will need some sort of corporate backing.

The AFL won't put a side in Tassie because it would rather have teams in RL heartlands to try to grow the game. An AFL/NRL team also needs a higher average attendance to be a success compared with a football team. Neither the NRL or AFL would set up their competitions like they are if they could start from scratch.

Ryan

Four simple things as we are never going to agree ...

The AFL has stated Tassie is to small for a team ...

Sports admin folk say this not me so I am relying on experts ... teams need to go to population centres and its better if they have established fan bases ...

South Western Sydney has a huge nay mega Football heart land ... its the home to arguably 4 of the biggest former NSL sides and its close to the gong another area where football is accepted and is a shared heartland with RL ... Regional centres in Australia are heartland areas for AFL & RL ...

Media .. WSW have received huge amounts of media and the difference between our media with WSW and the Gold Coast is huge ..

Summary WSW has a base support population of [if you count east of Parramatta ] about 2.5 million ...  so given a choice of going to a regional centre with an RL or AFL heartland with a population of say 300 K or ... if you add the gong population having two teams in a population of 2.7 million where in large parts its a football heartland and in other parts a shared heartland with RL ... I fail to see your logic ... I actually think the team would be very similar to WSW in support ... 

Ryan, missing people's arguments then rambling on with his own thing is what midfielder does best. 

T as always play the man not the issue...in Sydney they have a doctor who specialises  in removing chips from shoulders... I can PM his number if you are interested .. 

Your astute and knowledgeable comments about where to place the next two teams would be appreciated ... In post 154 above I posted on the difference between regional based teams and a South Western Team... challenging Ryan [who has argued his beliefs] that IMO he is incorrect about regional locations... 

As I said looking forward for your arguments and the logic behind them. 

I think we have probably got everything out of this discussion we can. But anyway:

- Why are there people in Western Sydney who do not support the Wanderers? 

- If these people don't support the Wanderers, why would they support Campbelltown?

- If these people do go from supporting the Wanderers to Campbelltown then the benefits of any Campbelltown team must be counter balanced with the costs to the Wanderers. Surely?

- How is any team going to be formed when the people of Campbelltown don't seem to want a team? The mayor and Brett Emerton putting out a press release doesn't count for much. Other potential teams have financial models, backers, have made actual bids and have actual teams in the NPL.

i am wondering where/how you get these new fans figures from?? Is that the stated aim of the A League/FFA ?

A strong business backing is essential, more likely to happen in a big city.

I made them up basically. Townsville's was the average attendance of the two seasons they were in the league; Campbelltown's were pulled from my arse.  They are just examples to show that yes I think a team from Campbelltown could be successful but I think a team from Townsville could potentially add more new fans to the league. Whether or not it is true that a Townsville team would bring more news fans in is one thing the FFA would have to evaluate (if they even cared about it). I just think it is an important consideration.

^^ More inclined to follow Midfielder's points then, he doesnt make things up