Ryan54
You puzzle me ... you said putting a team in a RL heartland with a population of 189 K ... is better than putting a team in a known Football Heartland with roughly one million people within a similar travelling distance to the 189 K in a RL heart land... I just cannot understand your logic ...
If I look at both the NRL & AFL they also have most of their clubs in Sydney for RL 9 of 16 and in Melbourne 10 of 18 for AFL... The AFL only has teams in major capital cities ... in RL only Newcastle Knights ... Maybe the gold Coast as well for both codes ... regional areas need huge percentages of the population . The AFL won't put a side in Tassie and yet AFL in Tassie is akin to rugby in NZ...
The in search of blue oceans site has a break down of numbers players etc... its a business and its a numbers game...
Auckland is IMO an obvious choice if AFC would allow [I doubt they would] ...
Maybe you are aware of flaws in the work done by sporting admin types and the analysis they do ...
The plan is simple have a 12 team competition ... 33 rounds 6 matches per round + FFA Cup, plus ACL ie 250 + games ... they want most teams with crowds ... essentially they want the new teams to be 10 K + from day one ... and they want them to be playing to an area that will effect TV ratings ... representing one million folk just maybe can get more eyes on the TV screen than 189 K ..
I do wonder aloud how you see a Townsville team getting better crowds and more TV rating than a team in SWS ... never mind the extra media a SWS team would get ...
The twelve team is the real hard one ... because most parts of Australia,,, Football has a very low conversion rate from player / coach / parent to going to games and watching on TV ... most of Australia is egg ball heartland and where ever the other side goes it will be difficult for them...
I'm sorry but once again I think you have missed my whole argument. Maybe I'm not wording it correctly.
I have never said that a Townsville team will get better crowds and more TV ratings than a team in SWS. I have never said that. I have not said that because that is ridiculous and I do not believe it.
What I have said (continually) is that I believe a team from Townsville will bring more new fans into the league. I believe that a team from Townsville would probably average about 5,500. This team from Campbelltown will probably average about 9,000 courtesy of 3 home sell out derby matches and some Western Sydney and Sydney FC fans jumping on board. However, how many new fans will they introduce into the league? How many people who don't currently go to games will now go to games because of a team in Campbelltown? That's my point. Yes, a Campbelltown team would probably make the league look better but football in Australia wouldn't be any more healthier. The Wanderers would be a little less strong and you would just have the same number of fans going to more games.
You have clearly lived in Western Sydney. Are there really people in Liverpool partial to the A-League who feel they have no team to support? I find that hard to believe.
I'm not saying any team should or shouldn't be brought into the league. All I'm saying is that when you slice up a city you have to consider the costs to other teams. You also need to consider the affects which a new team will have on the game itself rather than just whether or not that team has a good business model. Townsville may or may not be a good idea - it's just an example I used because they are the most vocal about rejoining the league. Canberra, Wollongong, Tasmania, Christchurch whatever. We should pick whichever of those teams have the best business case and financial backers. If Campbelltown can show it can bring an equal number of new fans into the league as those teams then of course they should be considered.
The one thing you ignore in all your business models is that almost every team needs a financial backer. If you go through the teams they all have strong backers. Melbourne Victory and Sydney FC are the only teams who probably have a good business case. Even a team like Brisbane needed the Bakrie Group to bail them out and wouldn't have won the league without their support. All this talk about how many people would or wouldn't support a Campbelltown team is pointless if no one stumps up with the case. In NQ Fury they have the community model. I don't know if that can be successful but they will need some sort of corporate backing.
The AFL won't put a side in Tassie because it would rather have teams in RL heartlands to try to grow the game. An AFL/NRL team also needs a higher average attendance to be a success compared with a football team. Neither the NRL or AFL would set up their competitions like they are if they could start from scratch.