Done right, Auckland would get 15+ to most games imo.
Regarding talent.... there certainly is a lot more coming through so I think we would be able to support more than one team with domestic players.
I personally would love to see people like Reid and Wood get involved in an Auckland bid, both would be at the tail end of their careers, they could come as marquee player coaches... he'll even part owners... i'm just getting cauth up in have a derby dream!!
I think there is a chance of crowds in the 12-15K range. Provided -
Team had a big name Kiwi player, eg Wood, Reid, Thomas, Rojas, Singh (unlikely)
Team was reasonably successful, basically not sharkhouse like Knights were
Venue Eden Park. Doloras is right Auckland's public transport has improved immeasurably since Knights folded, but Eden Park has to be the venue. Kingsland has also massively gentrified in that time, with plenty of pubs to soak in the atmosphere pre & post match.
Not too many late Sunday games
Formation of fan group along lines of YF
Smart planning tapping into local football clubs. Whether that's having transport linkages (buses) direct to carparks at some of the larger outlying clubs or whatever. Esp for the family friendly kickoffs, when you should be targeting as many kids as possible. I remember ES getting in what seemed about a 1K of their juniors over to Albany for Handy Prem final. Some clever stuff like that.
A biggest name signing from China/Korea would also be smart to tap into large Asian communities in Auckland.
I don't follow league but understand the Warriors have a few family friendly Sunday afternoon kickoffs, which would help their crowd numbers. Also helps that the local league fans, are familiar with all the Aussie league teams (many of whom have a few Kiwis playing for them as well), and yeah it's the world's premier league comp with lots of big name stars from State of Origin etc.
Went to every Blues home game I was in town for, apart from the last one. They were all 7.30pm kickoffs. The last one was a wet miserable Friday match, against Bulls from South Africa. A team who's players I don't know, and when the Blues season had yet again basically disintegrated. Not an attractive sell for Blues management. Fair weather fan, like many here when the chance of playoff football had virtually disappeared and the weather was crap.
A summer of A League with games at Eden Park, will be popular with many casual Auckland sports fans. Lets have a few beers down at Kingsland, head to the stadium to bask in the late summer sun, and boo some Australians.
22K in Feb may have been a one off, but 12-15K regularly is possible, if all done right.
I think what Roar is a pretty reasonable comparison. Popn around the same, football again competing against league and rugby for coverage. Suncorp about similar walking distance from the CBD as Eden Park, train station & bars (Caxton St) nearby. Roarcelona's glory days are long since over. They averaged 9,600 last season when they had a pretty awful time of it. They also don't have a derby. I'd expect a novelty Auckland side to do better than that initially, helped by a Nix derby game or two.