Statistics, damn statistics. I'll rephrase, but basically the signs are that economy is now going to slowly head upwards. The bottom has been reached??
The latest stats show yes unemployment has hit 5.3% up from 5.2%
ANZ's monthly Business Outlook report, as summarised this week by Tony Alexander. TA is better than most at predicting where things may go.
Back in 2021 he was telling everyone to fix their loans 2.99% at 5 years.
But most got lured in by the 1-2 year rates of 2.19% or lower.
TA saw the big worldwide inflation monster looming post the Covid sugar hits, but most didn't listen.
Anyway the talking thumb and his cabinet will be quietly hoping TA's predictions come to pass.
Last Thursday ANZ released their monthly Business Outlook report. This is a useful and reasonably timely set of data which usually attracts attention for the
1. level of business confidence about the economy and
2. their expectations for how their own activity levels will look in a year’s time.
Those two measures improved in October to net 58% and 45% positive respectively from 50% and 43% last month. The ten year averages are -7% and +17% respectively so the latest and recent results are very good.
They provide a firm basis for accepting a view that the economy is going to nicely improve over the coming year. But I like to look underneath these headline numbers at three other main things. First, are businesses willing to back their view by hiring more people. A net 15% have just said yes versus an average of 8%. This is good but not stellar.
https://www.tonyalexander.nz/wp-content/uploads/Tonys-View-6-November-2025.pdf
The latest stats show yes unemployment has hit 5.3% up from 5.2%
ANZ's monthly Business Outlook report, as summarised this week by Tony Alexander. TA is better than most at predicting where things may go.
Back in 2021 he was telling everyone to fix their loans 2.99% at 5 years.
But most got lured in by the 1-2 year rates of 2.19% or lower.
TA saw the big worldwide inflation monster looming post the Covid sugar hits, but most didn't listen.
Anyway the talking thumb and his cabinet will be quietly hoping TA's predictions come to pass.
Last Thursday ANZ released their monthly Business Outlook report. This is a useful and reasonably timely set of data which usually attracts attention for the
1. level of business confidence about the economy and
2. their expectations for how their own activity levels will look in a year’s time.
Those two measures improved in October to net 58% and 45% positive respectively from 50% and 43% last month. The ten year averages are -7% and +17% respectively so the latest and recent results are very good.
They provide a firm basis for accepting a view that the economy is going to nicely improve over the coming year. But I like to look underneath these headline numbers at three other main things. First, are businesses willing to back their view by hiring more people. A net 15% have just said yes versus an average of 8%. This is good but not stellar.
https://www.tonyalexander.nz/wp-content/uploads/Tonys-View-6-November-2025.pdf