I wanted to understand how many points the Phoenix might need to win the league this year.
My prior was that there would be a relationship between how spread out the final points table was, and the number of points the league winners had each season.
I did two basic linear regressions:
1) Standard Deviation of the Top 6 points per game (PPG) on the Premiers PPG (one data point per season)
2) standard deviation of the full league PPG on the premiers PPG
Used PPG as the number of teams/games per season varied since 2005.
The conclusion, the Phoenix might need about 53 points to win the league.
My prior was that there would be a relationship between how spread out the final points table was, and the number of points the league winners had each season.
I did two basic linear regressions:
1) Standard Deviation of the Top 6 points per game (PPG) on the Premiers PPG (one data point per season)
2) standard deviation of the full league PPG on the premiers PPG
Used PPG as the number of teams/games per season varied since 2005.
The conclusion, the Phoenix might need about 53 points to win the league.
So according to the data, 4W 1D 2L, or 3W 4D 0L out of our last 7 games should win it?
That scares me.