A League title tracker: Come on Phoenix!

Thought I’d try and figure out the average number of points we need to win the title. Perhaps even number of points per game. 
And while you are all incredibly gifted with data presentation I haven’t done much since felt pens and grid squares in a notebook, but I may even attempt a graph or chart or whatever.
The reason for this is I think we should give the title a go and not be shy about it. It may not be our best ever on paper, but it also may in hindsight and reflecting on the season! Imagine coming down the stretch in the hunt. 

Come on Phoenix! Fire Fire 🔥 🔥 UP! 

(nb please feel free to add data, or future assessments, dreams, and nervous hopes, but keep match Fred stuff there) 

These are the average points per game required to win the premiership over the last while. In a year of a dominant performance 2 or over is required. A more contested year approaching 2 is enough. 

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In Uffie’s seasons, we’ve averaged:
21/22: 1.5ppg
20/21: 1.3ppg
19/20: 1.58ppg

Our best ever was 1.7ppg in 2014/15 where we finished 4th. In 19/20, despite a lower ppg average, we managed a 3rd place finish - our best ever.

Uffie and the boys have a big challenge ahead of them but I reckon 1st place isn’t out of the question. Looking forward to popping back in this thread to see how the points averages progress.

If im honest have never really seen the point of looking at a teams performance on a points per game basis. They arnt earnt that way so dont really see the point in it just seems like another of those pointless stats people love. I prefer the simple way of looking at it WIN and we will be in the finals.

ballane

If im honest have never really seen the point of looking at a teams performance on a points per game basis. They arnt earnt that way so dont really see the point in it just seems like another of those pointless stats people love. I prefer the simple way of looking at it WIN and we will be in the finals.

I mean points per game give you a clear indication of how much you have to win. Yeah obviously win games = win league but there’s nothing wrong with being a bit analytical.

ballane

If im honest have never really seen the point of looking at a teams performance on a points per game basis. They arnt earnt that way so dont really see the point in it just seems like another of those pointless stats people love. I prefer the simple way of looking at it WIN and we will be in the finals.

I have looked at one or two other stats which are also important to winning the Premiership. 

I wish I was in Wellington…

Yeah get why people like them just not me. Nice at the stadium bit windy but sunny hoping for a big walk up crowd. Wenix just gone up 1-0

Here’s an inaccurate graph to illustrate our season v champions track.

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We should be doing better and I want to win the A league much more than I care if the AWs get out of group. If we had two top 4 finishes in the A league in the next two years, it’d be better than a week of good AWs football. And if we can’t achieve some A league success after the promise, but disappointments of previous seasons! Even WU have a title. 

3 games left until the World Cup break, kinda feels like we will need at least 2 wins to keep pace with the Top 4.

Well we have won 1 game so far this season.
After Round 6 22/23 Season

Wellington Phoenix ppg = 1
Table position = 9 or 10th (and we’ve just lost to one of the two teams below us)

Another win as RR observed could have had us Top 4.

I had hoped these stats would give us a bit of hope prior to the break. However, the table is still tight and we could jump places by Christmas. I hoped we’d win the Premiership as consistent performance, rather than clutch performance, has been the style of previous Uffie teams. 

Here are the stats of previous champions after the sixth round. I believe the 20/21 stat with City is after round 6, but with games in hand.

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Unfortunately, by all metrics we are off the pace.

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The only thing to note here is that a win today would have put us squarely in the middle of the champions pack on table positions.  Gotta cling to something! 

Hope to revisit this at Christmas or after the holiday period with better news! 

Well, our season is getting a bit more Sasse-y.

To cheer us up even more than beating Adelaide here is a list of title winning teams and the goals scored after round 8. 20-21 Covid affected.

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We’re certainly not short of goals by any measure.

If we keep not conceding them then we are in for the win

If we didn't drop all those points late, we would be right up there :/

After watching most games this weekend, I gotta think we are up there with City atm. The defence is the only thing that could hold us back from a Top 4 spot.

Problem we have is we have played a high ratio of home games, meaning we will have a run of away matches later on, so should have more points than we do. I know we played no matches at home during covid seasons but it's not quite the same thing since we will have to travel further, etc. 

If anything I think we're not too far off the money with this squad. 

Sure the 2-4-2 record & 10 points from 8 games isn't spectacular, but the signs are very promising.

Here's why;
a) When have we ever looked so threatening going forward in our entire existence? We've scored in every game so far this season - a club first being this far into the season
b) Imports starting to make a real impact for us. Kraev - easily one of the best pickups we've ever made, Zawada starting to find his feet, as well as the back of the net (I personally, I think he's been a superb pickup for us). You all know what Bally brings to the table by now. Wootton has been solid enough to date and hopefully that Sasse performance on the weekend was a sign of things to come from the lad.
c) We're coming into the traditional middle of the campaign where we go on a good run and get ourselves in the mix. By no means is this a given, but given the last couple of seasons, it typically is our most profitable time of the competition.
d) Since the World Cup break we've definitely looked more solid at the back. No open play goals against us, and our last 3 goals conceded have been from free kicks (Diamanti - Pre WC, Ngbakoto & Goodwin). Still a lot to work on of course, but some good signs, especially in these past couple of games against WSW & Adelaide. Still waiting for our first clean sheet of the season as well.

I'm not going out on a limb here to say we'll finish top, but I think I can be realistic (and perhaps a little hopeful) that 3rd through 5th is about where we're at currently.

Lot of football to come, but I'm encouraged. Still think we need some defensive reinforcements come January to cover the inevitable injuries and suspensions we'll cop down the line.

How good is it to see Rufer back in the mix again too! Bloody excellent recovery time on that one.

COYN!

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https://www.soccerstats.com/table.asp?league=australia&tid=pw

RR

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https://www.soccerstats.com/table.asp?league=australia&tid=pw

Think this is reflective of a more attacking team and a less defensively minded midfield not getting it quite right early on. 
Interestingly we’ve overturned deficits which was not the case last season. 

It’s almost at the point where Melbourne C have to lose all their games and we have to win all of ours.  There’s still the slightest wiggle room on that, but not much. 

martinb

It’s almost at the point where Melbourne C have to lose all their games and we have to win all of ours.  There’s still the slightest wiggle room on that, but not much. 

No one really cares about that title though. Rightly or wrongly it's WU that goes down in football memory as champions last season. 

Although neutrals could be forgiven for confusing two Melbourne franchises with no fans and no proper home ground.

Outpost

martinb

It’s almost at the point where Melbourne C have to lose all their games and we have to win all of ours.  There’s still the slightest wiggle room on that, but not much. 

No one really cares about that title though. Rightly or wrongly it's WU that goes down in football memory as champions last season. 

Although neutrals could be forgiven for confusing two Melbourne franchises with no fans and no proper home ground.

Nope. 
For me the most important victory is being top of the table. Probably more so in the last few years. 

I used to think about it as a finals series- but then someone pointed out the comparison of a knockout/cup competition. It’s an idea I like because it makes football sense. 

I want to win the league because I think it’s the greater achievement. 

It's not what the league or fans or the media values.

It's like a cup competition, except it's not because it's an Australian sport - they have finals series and the winner of the final is the winner of the competition.

just me, but at this point in the club's existance I'd take finishing 5th in the league and winning the toilet seat.

Ryan

It's not what the league or fans or the media values.

It's like a cup competition, except it's not because it's an Australian sport - they have finals series and the winner of the final is the winner of the competition.

Again nope. 

We have Premiers and Champions. 

Did my post sound like I give a fudge what sky news 7 in Australia spends its 7 second slot on soccer valuing? 
I was pointing out what I’d like to win, and in fact thought was easier for an Uffie team. 

If I watch something thinking about it as a post season cup, valuing a little less than the league, or at least a little differently, then that’s what it is for me. You do you bud. 

If a team has an unbeaten season before the finals series, there’s no way I consider it a lesser achievement than if the 5th placed side scrapes through a tough series of 1-0 results. 

I don’t have to look at the grand final as invalidating the preceding league anymore. I might have in the past, but it certainly doesn’t compare to AFL finals week or other finals weeks. And there is an enormous amount of back and forth with leagues all over the world where finals series don’t matter or occur. 

Football is an interconnected international sport, much much more so than the NRL or AFL. The A league is set up to allow for both traditions and perhaps soon even promotion relegation. Because the international sporting body which regulates the sport wants it. 

And just cos fans want to win a final doesn’t mean they don’t want to win the league. 

theprof

just me, but at this point in the club's existance I'd take finishing 5th in the league and winning the toilet seat.

I’d love us to win something. And a few more things while we’re good. Thought we had a shot this year. 

martinb

theprof

just me, but at this point in the club's existance I'd take finishing 5th in the league and winning the toilet seat.

I’d love us to win something. And a few more things while we’re good. Thought we had a shot this year. 

Heartbreaking to think that our best chance(s) to win trophies were the COVID years, playing away from home with massive mental pressures on our boys.

This year's squad is great, but we were really fizzing with Davila and co on the park

dunnix

martinb

theprof

just me, but at this point in the club's existance I'd take finishing 5th in the league and winning the toilet seat.

I’d love us to win something. And a few more things while we’re good. Thought we had a shot this year. 

Heartbreaking to think that our best chance(s) to win trophies were the COVID years, playing away from home with massive mental pressures on our boys.

This year's squad is great, but we were really fizzing with Davila and co on the park

 
Yeh- had so many first week failures in the finals series it’s hard to remember the penalty saves and extra time thrills from a long time ago. 
And we’ve had a great football team, but achieved zip with it. Tbh in some ways being in Aussie helped the team and every year has some crisis like the license or whatever. We have to win despite any of that. 

martinb

Ryan

It's not what the league or fans or the media values.

It's like a cup competition, except it's not because it's an Australian sport - they have finals series and the winner of the final is the winner of the competition.

Again nope. 

We have Premiers and Champions. 

Did my post sound like I give a fudge what sky news 7 in Australia spends its 7 second slot on soccer valuing? 
I was pointing out what I’d like to win, and in fact thought was easier for an Uffie team. 

If I watch something thinking about it as a post season cup, valuing a little less than the league, or at least a little differently, then that’s what it is for me. You do you bud. 

If a team has an unbeaten season before the finals series, there’s no way I consider it a lesser achievement than if the 5th placed side scrapes through a tough series of 1-0 results. 

I don’t have to look at the grand final as invalidating the preceding league anymore. I might have in the past, but it certainly doesn’t compare to AFL finals week or other finals weeks. And there is an enormous amount of back and forth with leagues all over the world where finals series don’t matter or occur. 

Football is an interconnected international sport, much much more so than the NRL or AFL. The A league is set up to allow for both traditions and perhaps soon even promotion relegation. Because the international sporting body which regulates the sport wants it. 

And just cos fans want to win a final doesn’t mean they don’t want to win the league. 

Hate to break it to you but your opinionis just yours and the circus around the finals shows what most people value.

dunnix

martinb

theprof

just me, but at this point in the club's existance I'd take finishing 5th in the league and winning the toilet seat.

I’d love us to win something. And a few more things while we’re good. Thought we had a shot this year. 

Heartbreaking to think that our best chance(s) to win trophies were the COVID years, playing away from home with massive mental pressures on our boys.

This year's squad is great, but we were really fizzing with Davila and co on the park

best chance was when Sydney handled the ball into the goal in the semi final, if we had var back then we might have won a trophy.

Ryan

martinb

Ryan

It's not what the league or fans or the media values.

It's like a cup competition, except it's not because it's an Australian sport - they have finals series and the winner of the final is the winner of the competition.

Again nope. 

We have Premiers and Champions. 

Did my post sound like I give a fudge what sky news 7 in Australia spends its 7 second slot on soccer valuing? 
I was pointing out what I’d like to win, and in fact thought was easier for an Uffie team. 

If I watch something thinking about it as a post season cup, valuing a little less than the league, or at least a little differently, then that’s what it is for me. You do you bud. 

If a team has an unbeaten season before the finals series, there’s no way I consider it a lesser achievement than if the 5th placed side scrapes through a tough series of 1-0 results. 

I don’t have to look at the grand final as invalidating the preceding league anymore. I might have in the past, but it certainly doesn’t compare to AFL finals week or other finals weeks. And there is an enormous amount of back and forth with leagues all over the world where finals series don’t matter or occur. 

Football is an interconnected international sport, much much more so than the NRL or AFL. The A league is set up to allow for both traditions and perhaps soon even promotion relegation. Because the international sporting body which regulates the sport wants it. 

And just cos fans want to win a final doesn’t mean they don’t want to win the league. 

Hate to break it to you but your opinionis just yours and the circus around the finals shows what most people value.

Yes, well done. Reading comprehension. I wrote a post about what I thought and felt about something and was surprisingly on the money about that. 

Max Points Possible:
SYD - 38
PER - 37
BRI - 35
NEW - 35
WUN - 35
MAC - 35
MVC - 34

#SYDvPER next weekend is massive.

35 points might be enough to make the Top 6 (1 win, 1 draw in our last 4 games). Park the bus tomorrow & play for the point?

WEL - BRI (H) WSW (A) MAC (A)
SYD - PER (H) BRI (A) NEW (H)
PER - SYD (A) ADL (H) WUN (H)
BRI - WEL (A) SYD (H) MVC (A)
NEW - MAC (H) CCM (H) SYD (A)
WUN - ADL (A) MCY (H) PER (A)
MAC - NEW (A) MVC (A) WEL (H)
MVC - WSW (A) MAC (H) BRI (H)

Key week to clear the heads. 
Which positions get a home final? 
And sorry this thread is somewhat redundant now…

martinb

Key week to clear the heads. 
Which positions get a home final? 
And sorry this thread is somewhat redundant now…

3rd get a Home match vs 6th
4th gets a Home match vs 5th

Then its Home & Away between 1st & lowest placed winner + 2nd vs highest placed winner. So to get two Home Finals games, you need to finish 3rd/4th.

So looking at the table it seems like the possibilities are:

1) we can hang on and get finals footy from 5th or 6th
2) we bottle it and get knocked out of the six by Perth
3) CCM/WSW bottles it and we ace it and we get a home final. 

with the outside possibility that if we are truly awful any of the Roar, Jets or WU might sneak up on us too. We can’t get anywhere near first or second now. 

coochiee

https://theniche-cache.com/football/2023/4/13/whats-going-wrong-with-the-wellington-phoenix-blokes-lately-and-how-can-they-fix-it

Great analysis. A key point:

Waine and Sotirio (and Reno for that) goneski.
Kosta and Ball not cutting it. Ben Old playing through a nasty wear and tear injury and Van Hattum not doing it. 

That is the difference between us now and second on the table. Second half goals, equaling our Xg, not throwing away leads, taking pressure off the defense. No genuine counter attacking threat. 

Kraev/Sasse have been a bit soft too of late or unlucky, but there’s only so many times you can hit the post before you have to adjust. 

Remove the "blame" on any individuals - although I agree with the kosta analysis, Ball hasn't been the same since his toe injury at the end of last season.
The whole team has managed to drop points from winning positions (23 points in total I think). Had we won all those games, we'd be top by 4 points. Totaly unrealistic of course, but even if we'd claimed half (12) of those points available we'd be comfortably in the top 4 (second on 42). What could have been!

I am genuinely starting to think we are going to slip out of the top 6.