As an inaugural season ticket holder and with only three games missed over that time I think the crowd formula is pretty simple:
4k
the we were shit and so was the weather, hard core fan base. Would have been shirts off in the sleet but we weren't good enough to be leading and we hadn't looked like it in previous matches.
Why do we have this club and how long will it last.
>4k-7k a combo of:
lower to middling league placing, but maybe improving team performances, but cold/wet/windy enough that it's an effort to want to get there
OR
team struggling a bit, not in definate playoffs contention, but showing signs of life, getting some better media coverage, showing a trend towards midtable, and a nice day
OR
team doing mid table-ish, without setting the world on fire, but Xmas holidays, or Wgtn anniv, students not back
This is the angsty, we need to do this, need to do that, all sorts of ideas tossed around, how do we get good, sort of fan post time. We are just at the top end of that range now.
>7k-10k
Team is in contention for playoffs; 5th-7th, reasonably decent day, not a holiday and students back and we've been getting some positive press about improving play. Can also get above 7k if the team's been on a bit of a run but the weather's not great, so long as it's not a holiday.
Ooooh, getting sort of exciting. More frequent, but just hopeful, if now less sarcastic/flippant We're going to win the League chants.
>10k
Team is top four and playing football worth watching - by the measure of the non-hardcore entertainment seeking wider sports audience. We've had some positive media for a while, the less hard-core and winner-backing crowds have started to get along to a game and seen the team play well, so we've built numbers up over a couple of good home games. Not holidays, nor crap weather, but at this standard of play can hold numbers better with poor-ish weather. Students are back. Playoffs are guaranteed and we think we are in the hunt.
This is the Home play-off Game, Home Play-off Game, buzzy period, and the We're going to win the League chants are getting a tinge of real hope about them.
Marketing makes very little difference, I think, until you are at the 7k level and have a "product" that stands up to the more casual fans' decent entertainment test. In that context I think the first half of the CCM game did us a bit of harm. We'd had a few good, mainly away, results, some more positive media; the numbers built a bit and we served up crap.
The dodgy playing times I am guessing can cost us something like 1k, maybe more, if it's a problem for getting families and the less central Wellington region supporters along. But it's hard to get a good read on that as the club will often try to compensate with a cheap ticket deal or kids free type of promo.
That's my feel for it over the years, and I think there is a moderately predictable pattern to it, as a broad rule of thumb.