Predicting what might happen in CONCACAF World Cup qualifying is almost always impossible. Still...
Mexico: they’ve been really flat under Tata Martino and haven’t been playing well. Still, they have four home matches and should qualify comfortably. If they drop points at home in January, then it maybe becomes interesting. They are starting to incorporate more players from their Olympic team, but Martino has been pretty loyal to the old guard and it may be to his peril.
United States: they have El Salvador and Honduras at home in January, which should be straight-forward, but they’re playing both matches in cold climates and I think the possibility of playing in a foot of snow puts some uncertainty in what should be two easy wins. They have a road match in the cold in Canada as well in January. That’s a match they could definitely win. The U.S. should collect 6 or 7 points at least to solidify their place, but if they don’t it could be a little nervy in March with a trip to Mexico coming up. They’ve played well without some of their better attacking players and I think will qualify comfortably.
Canada: As a Canadian I am biased, but I’ve also been through this many times with Canada, so I’m definitely not over-confident. Canada got a draw at the Azteca, so they shouldn’t be overwhelmed by playing on the road in Central America, but they have four away trips to Central America left. Away to Honduras and ES in January is a chance to prove this group is different once and for all. Those are two of the hardest away matches in the region, but half the battle is the fans (both inside the stadium and out) and the conditions. Given their place in the standings, the fan support won't what it normally is and in January, the weather is going to be as good as you can hope for. I desperately want to be over the line and in third before having to go to Panama on the final match day. Nine points in five matches will almost certainly do it. Five points in the January window would leave them needing a road draw in Costa Rica and then having a chance to beat Jamaica at home to possibly clinch a trip to Qatar.
Panama: Panama being here is still hard to get my head around. In their first two qualifiers Panama needed late goals to beat Barbados 1-0 and Dominica 2-1. In the playoff to reach the final eight, Curacao only needed a 1-0 win at home to knock Panama out and they hit the bar late. Everyone keeps waiting for Panama to fall out of form, but it hasn’t happened. Their depth has been good and they are finding the goals that so eluded them a year ago. They came from behind to win both matches in November and keep pace with the front-runners. They have some difficult away matches left, but they’ve won away twice which is a big reason they’re keeping pace. They can virtually lock up fourth place at worse in the January window.
Costa Rica: A 95th minute winner against Honduras kept their faint hopes alive, but this side looks old and punchless. Four of their six goals in qualifying have come at home against struggling Honduras and ES. They have two goals total in their other six matches. They refuse to play younger players despite the players from the 2014 quarterfinal run not producing much. They're not easy to beat, particularly with Navas in goal, but 0-0 draws aren't going to get them to Qatar.
Jamaica: they probably seem like they’re done for, but on paper they’re a decent side and with four home matches left I think have an outside chance. If they can win one of their home matches in January and beat Panama away I think they have a chance. They’re unbeaten in their last four, but they gave up an injury time equalizer in El Salvador and then had a winner against the U.S. harshly ruled out for a foul. They started qualifying with a squad of 35 because their English-based players couldn’t (at the time) travel to away matches without then quarantining on the way home. Ironically the non-English based team nearly held Mexico to a draw away and the English-based team were thrashed 3-0 in Kingston by Panama. I think those players were not prepared for what qualifying is like in this region. They have started to find their legs, but it may be too late.
Mexico, Panama, Jamaica and Costa Rica all play each other in January. If Jamaica and/or Costa Rica haven’t significantly closed the gap on Panama after those three matches, I don’t think they will.
I have watched the majority of the matches in this round of qualifying. Any questions, feel free to ask. I am really, really hoping Canada doesn’t have to play the All Whites in the playoffs.
Good luck in OFC qualifying. Hopefully the FIFA window nonsense isn’t a factor.
