All whites move up the FIFA Rankings - AGAIN!!

All whites move up the FIFA Rankings - AGAIN!!

All Whites edge up latest Fifa rankingsThursday, 14 February 2008

New Zealand's All Whites have eased up four places in the latest Fifa world football rankings released today.

Despite not playing any games, the All Whites have moved from 94th to 90th position, well off their best ranking of 47th in August 2002 but still nowhere near their recent nadir of 156th in September last year.

Australia, following their 3-0 win over Qatar in their World Cup qualifier last week, jumped 10 places up the ladder to 38th place.

Pim Verbeek's Socceroos were among the biggest improvers for February, with most of the other movement among teams that competed in the African Nations Cup.

Australia also moved up 10 spots in Asia, to be the second-ranked team in the zone behind Japan.

ANC hosts Ghana climbed 29 places to joint 14th following their third place finish at the tournament to be the highest ranked African nation, while Cameroon, who lost 1-0 to Egypt in the final, vaulted eight places to 17th.

Egypt are ranked behind Ghana, Cameroon and Ivory Coast at 29th - an improvement of six spots.

The top 10 remains largely unchanged due to few competitive internationals in South America and Europe over the last month.

Argentina stayed atop the rankings for the fifth-straight month, and Greece's rise of one place to 10th was the only change in the top 10.

Brazil, Italy, Spain and Germany rounded out the top five, followed by the Czech Republic, France, Portugal, Netherlands and Greece.

Other than Argentina, Brazil and Ghana, the top 20 was filled out by European teams, with England rising one spot to 11th after beating Switzerland 2-1 in Fabio Capello's first match as manager.

The next world rankings will be released on March 12.

Why play games, when we move up the ladder without playing!

Valid point. That would stop NZF using so much money.    loyalgunner2008-02-14 16:12:05

Yeah, we'll just trounce the OFC teams and let the ranking system do the rest.

Although I would like to see them play still!

at this rate wont be long til more of our boys can play in england without visa probs.

the rankings are a joke.  We all know NZ are better than Ghana, USA, Brazil and Japan, yet the rankings don't show that.  Who puts them together - Stevie Wonder????

Don't view it as NZ rising the rankings. View it as teams above us lost amd moved down.

If we schedule twelve months of interantionals against the Cook Islands, say one a week, we could progress to the top five in the world and become eligable for SPARC money. Just think, us and the All Blacks fifth ranked in our respective codes.

Okay, were 91st now.

We've made it to page 2 at last.

reason being the losses to Costa Rica and Venezuala have fallen off the last 12 month calculations. So our points one in the world cup games are worth more as not average out with losses and zero points. so we are going to have an extra 50 points come April   :)

Yep thats right..... as of the 9th of April 2008 we are the 77th best football team in the world..... and again we didn't play a single game....imagine if we did!

well i dont like to admit i am always right..but well, what can i say ;)

Crazy ranking though. 77 sounds pretty good to me! The question is can we sustain consistency in rankings and in performance and fixtures?

77th place.

That makes us about 9th place if AFC and OFC was combined.

Behind Japan, Australia, Korea Rep, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Uzbekistan, Iraq and Bahrain and before the likes of Oman, China PR, Qatar, Thailand, United Arab Emirates and Syria.

If we win both NCL games, [100(6x3x0.86x0.85)] ~ 13 FIFA points.

It should be changing from 399 to 412 points. This means we will still be in 77th place unless Albania (lose 7 points), Costa Rica (lose 8 points), Slovenia (loses 13 points) and Latvia (lose 18 points) in which we get to jump up one to each of their lost place. Just hope that Armenia, Mozambique Oman, Georgia, China PR, Qatar and Gambia don't get their wins.

 

Ah, that's respectable.  Now all we need is a squad of young Argentinians, Italians and Brazilians to play in the NZFC and gain citizenship and for NZ to export more kids to clubs in Europe to gain experience.

its funny the only time we really move up is when we aren't playing. Can't see us ever really making big moves up until we play more games.

and not just more games. we need to play against decent opposition...i am not talking about argentina and brazil...but at least teams that are in the top 100. but not just play them...get the odd result as well.

Some interesting comments on this thread. uiron2008-04-11 07:56:29

Mr T.

If we managed to beat the 5th placed asian seed, and manage to get to the world cup, maybe win a game or two then it will be the turn around, however should we fail badly it'll stay about the same, but it won't get worse.
The Olympics could be good for us, I reckon we can do alright there.
Also if the nix have a brilliant season, maybe even win the A-League, just before the WC2010 it'll be a massive bonus. But what we really need is more international players in higher leagues.

I'd be feeling very confident if I was a Kiwi going to face the 5th placed Asian team. With the European stars like Killen and Nelsen making the trip back, I could see NZ beating the likes of Saudi Arabia and Bahrain.

To be honest even with the likes a fully fit, Elliot, Killen and Nelsen playing the All Whites would still need to play out of their skins and also have lady luck on their side.

These Asian teams are getting a much better build up and that is always going to put us on the back foot. Its as simple as that.

Considering Scotland were 82nd just 18 months ago, I think 77th for NZ is pretty reasonable

NZ will never get any higher than we are now whilst we remain isolated in Oceania playing piddly teams like Outer Smurfland. The amount of points we get for winning against the island nations is miniscule. And what larger team would want to play us way down in little old NZ?

We need to follow Australia's lead and JOIN ASIA as soon as possible. We will then be playing better opposition, helping to grow our game. And players like Nelsen will be more keen to play for us when we have regular games against teams like Australia, Japan and Korea.

I wish FIFA would scrap the Oceania region and merge it into the Asian Confederation.

Joining the AFC - great idea, but ....... we simply could not afford to play in their World Cup qualifying competitions. Have a look at the AFC website, study the qualifying competitions, and do the maths. The FFA lost A$11m last year - a lot of it was their international programme. We struggle to afford a trip to PNG for one game to qualify for the Olympics - OFC paid the travel, and PNG paid the local costs in return for us forgoing our home game. Have a look at the schedules for qualifying out of Asia. Without any any significant revenue from the the "Big 3" revenue earners of major football nations (broadcast rights, shirt sponsorship and home gates), we could not afford the international programme of AFC.

Disregard the above analysis, it has a few big flaws. It was sort of rough calculation but it is more complex than that.

e.g. forgot to multiple by 100. and 13 FIFA points is kind of small amount of points.

I have to make better theortical model assumptions. Most of the information is there to make a calculated model.

1. I need to change the match status. (it's a little confusing because of the OFC format, but it should downgrade by 0.5 from 3 to 2.5)
2. I need to know if I have to include the Indonesia games (not clear if those friendly games are going to continue ahead, Seatt do you know if they are going to play those games? - I sort of need an assumptive idea for make the theoretical model to calculate the points added and the points dropped off)


I should be able to make a prediction range of NZ rankings before the WCQ final leg of the OFC and then another before the WCQ playoffs game against the 5th placed Asian team. I then have to wait to know what Asian team it would be as well to get an idea of the FIFA point.

Anyway. I decided to make at least a quick prediction if we win the Indonesia game and include gaining the lost points in the same period in the last four years.

But if we are going to do the first Friendly game against Indonesia in 08/06/08

The points for a win would go out as this:

100(3x1x((200-132)/100)x((0.85+0.85)/2))=173.4 points gained.

100% to 50% Points dropped between April-June 2007=(-17+17+-87)x.5=-43.5 Points
50% to 30% Points dropped between April-June 2006=(-9+2+-183)x.2=-38 Points
30% to 20% Points dropped between April-June 2005=(-3+-3+-16)x.1=-22 Points
20% to 0% Points dropped between April-June 2004 = (0+-7+46) x.2 = -39 Points.

Total Dropped Points= - 142.5

Therefore if we win the friendly against Indonesia it will give us 173.4 Points subtract -142.5 Points that we lost in the previous four years giving us a total of 315.9 Points in the FIFA Rankings.

(of course if we don't play Indonesia by the July rankings, then we still gain 142.5 Points that we lost miserably in those same period in the last four years)

So without the Indonesia game, add 142.5 points on the 399 point that we have, we should have a total of 541.5 points. Giving us an approximate ranking around 58th place on the FIFA rankings.

But with an Indonesia game and winning it, then we add 315.9 points to the 399 points that we have, we should have a total of 714.9 points. giving us an approximate ranking around 34th place on the FIFA rankings.

In both cases, it depends on the other teams point changes as well and frankly I am not going to touch all that. However the 541.5 points is roughly 58th place and 714.9 points is roughly 34th place on the latest April 08 rankings.

Hopefully I am right about this. I hate it if I got this calculation wrong, but 58th place or 34th place come this July 2008 rankings does sound mighty good in my humble opinion. But it also expose how terrible we have been during those months in the last four years to drop points (which is also based on the other previous years points as well with the "dilution" factor inherent in those points).

So about 58th or 34th place does sound mighty good, don't you think?

You think that we have a few NZ players lining up for work permits in the UK sooner than you think, eh?
AllWhitebelievr2008-04-17 04:25:02

A  MA ZZING!!   Now that you explain it like this, things are a lot clearer.

Yeah, Aussie can get the teams down under to play them then NZF pays to get the teams over the ditch and lap up the cash from a sell-out crowd at the Stadium/Lancaster Park or at a stretch somewhere in Auckland.

All White believer did you remember to divide all the points earned by a minimum of 5 games per year?

Well. . . . no

I shouldn't woke up in the middle of the night and try a bit of calculation to make me tried, so I forgot.

Well, looking at it again

It's a huge factor.

Oh, that change of date mucks things up for a while.

We have to take a dip because then we only have done 4 games in the last 12 months in July 08 and the calculations allows a minimum of 5 games so the points are then averaged 1/5 less. Total wise it was a quick calculation and I didn't use the 5 minimum averaging. Friendlies are not worth even playing, it sort of counts against making any decent climb in the rankings unless we play someone that is in the top 50 and win.

But wins later in Sept with WCQ against Fiji and two against NCL should lift the rankings up again because of the match status which then multiplies by 2.5 or 3.

Technically, if it does not add past 399 points up for grabs in a friendly then it's not worth play it.

So that Indonesia win in July will only gain some of the lost ground that will happen for having less than 5 games in the last 12 months. However losing those games in the 2003 Confederation Cup and that 4-2 WCQ lost to Vananatu will play a even less influence and adds those lost points being regained.

So I guess that if we are to climb the rankings using a friendly then the country has to be ranked very high.

Now you got it sorted Allwhitebeliever!

77th?

I just realize that where is a WCQ game against Fiji on 23rd June according to FIFA and OFC and not in Sept however that Indonesia game is going to be on the 20th of July afterwards.

This chopping and changing is really annoying to be honest. There was suppose to be two games against Indonesia last year and now it is only one game that has been delayed again for a month.

100(3x2.5x((200-134)/100)x 0.85 x 1.0)= 420.75 points for a win.

100(1x2.5x((200-134)/100)x 0.85 x 1.0)= 140.25 points for draw.

((399 x 4 + 420.75) + 142.5)/5 (i.e. points regained from previous years) = 431.85 FIFA points.

((399 x 4 + 140.25) + 142.5)/5=375.75 FIFA points.

According to the current April FIFA Rankings that will place us about 73 in the July Rankings providing we win of course.

A draw will see us on 375.75 points and about 87th place.

A lost will see us on 347.7 points and about 93rd place.

We can't afford not to win in the Fiji WCQ for better ranking placement.

The regained points are not going to help us now because we are on the minimum five matches yearly now and also it will be the last of the influencial lost games from 2004 WCQ at this time of the year. We had that 4-2 lost to Vanatau as well as that 0-1 lost to Australia. However from now on it's only friendlies and the recent WCQ games in our FIFA points.