Ok all good points I hadn't considered when I posted that :p
I do wonder then if its something Oceania, NZF or even FIFA would push for?
Sort of a "if you want the half spot this is what has to happen" but that is a massive leap from what is being discussed, and is very unlikely to happen given the points you raised.
You'd think if this happened then AFC may as well absorb OFC?
What does AFC get from absorbing OFC. 1/2 spot and NZ
1: they don't need NZ
2: they don't need the other broke ass 10 countries who bring no money, no football, no tv or rights, and no political clout
3: they won't want to cut their pie an extra 11 ways to fund our nations and piss their own members off
4: is Iran really gonna want to travel to Tahiti?
The only only positive is a half spot and thats only what they are talking about.
If that half a spot is the reason NZ gets into Asia than I'm all for it. If being in Asia means we don't get into the world cup but we get five fairly competitive games, a better coach and games more often in general I'm 100% behind it.
Yep completely agree. I wouldn't have felt that way before the playoff against Mexico because I was too excited about it and loving it. But then the feeling I got afterward when I realised there was no real meaningful game in nz for 4 years was a sh*t one, it simply has to be done.
This is a huge opportunity for more competitive games and we should jump on it if poss.
Do it NZF. Push for it hard!!!
Joining the last stage of AFC (let’s assume it happen) does have its issues.
The key question for me is whether there is separate qualification for the Confeds Cup and for the spot in the Asia WCQ phase.
Either way, OFC qualification would need to start early.
The final stage of Asia WCQ last time ran from June 2012 to June 2013. So assuming there are two more teams, and then an internal playoff between the two groups, you’d expect that would run from June 2016 to November 2017 (which would include some space for friendlies and the Confederations Cup in June 2017). Thus we would need to find our OFC representative by March 2016.
If OFC had a separate path for Confeds Cup and Asia WCQ phase, then you’d expect a tournament style competition in June 2015 for the Confeds Cup, then a subsequent home and away series for four teams over Sept, Oct, Nov 2015 international windows. However there is issues there as the Pacific Game, which was used as the First Stage of OFC WCQ is taking place 4-18 July 2015. Logistically and financially, it seems difficult.
If it is the same path, then there are significant implications if we do another Honiara. That is, no confeds cup, and no final Asia WCQ phase. I guess this may mean a simple home and away series between the 4/5 best teams over Sept, Oct, Nov 2015, Mar 2016 international windows. But then there is a question how you find those 4/5 best teams. Maybe the 4 from last time plus the winner of the Pacific Games.
How many rounds are there for the AFC world cup qualifying? I think the entire AFC would have to re-organised rather than simply having Oceania joining at the last stage. Something more long the lines of how CONCACAF works with possibly even an extra round. I highly doubt we would join and have an individual confederations cup spot.
I wouldn't underestimate the value of that 1/2 spot to AFC. The last 2 WC's [not sure about the ones before that] Asia's 1/2 have not qualified and been beaten in the play offs. Surely the carrot of an automatic spot is very attractive, AFC Nations would be reasonably confident of beating NZ out of a spot if we were all in qualifying together, they would realise the odds of beating the likes of Uruguay would be minimal. Goin to the WC is worth a bit of money to qualifying nations and it will be the middle order countries that are on the edge of automatic qualifying most years, that will lead the push for this.
Personally I think the best thing for NZ and Oceania football is that the Oceania qualifier joins the final AFC qualifying round for automatic qualification. Everything else [junior football etc] retains the current system. This prevents additional costs imposed on the Pacific Nations and gives NZ an easier road to the youth WCs than by going through Asia. However, FIFA might say that if you want the combined last qualifying place the 2 confederations have to merge at all levels - Asia/Oceania Confederation.
Joining the last stage of AFC (let’s assume it happen) does have its issues.
The key question for me is whether there is separate qualification for the Confeds Cup and for the spot in the Asia WCQ phase.
Either way, OFC qualification would need to start early.
The final stage of Asia WCQ last time ran from June 2012 to June 2013. So assuming there are two more teams, and then an internal playoff between the two groups, you’d expect that would run from June 2016 to November 2017 (which would include some space for friendlies and the Confederations Cup in June 2017). Thus we would need to find our OFC representative by March 2016.
If OFC had a separate path for Confeds Cup and Asia WCQ phase, then you’d expect a tournament style competition in June 2015 for the Confeds Cup, then a subsequent home and away series for four teams over Sept, Oct, Nov 2015 international windows. However there is issues there as the Pacific Game, which was used as the First Stage of OFC WCQ is taking place 4-18 July 2015. Logistically and financially, it seems difficult.
If it is the same path, then there are significant implications if we do another Honiara. That is, no confeds cup, and no final Asia WCQ phase. I guess this may mean a simple home and away series between the 4/5 best teams over Sept, Oct, Nov 2015, Mar 2016 international windows. But then there is a question how you find those 4/5 best teams. Maybe the 4 from last time plus the winner of the Pacific Games.
FIFA will not allow the Pacific Games to be used for the purposes of WCQ because teams from Asia are involved. This was the case in 2011 and hence why the OFC Nations Cup was resurrected as a tournament in Honiara.
If the Pacific Games do not allow teams from Asia, then the games can be used for WCQ. In 2007, there were no teams from Asia and thus, the Pacific Games was 'stage 2' to find the 4 teams that went on to what is effectively 'stage 3' and play home and away for the 'OFC Nations Cup'.
If they revert back to what they did in Samoa in 2007 and do not allow teams from Asia to compete, the 4 finalists at the Pacific Games in 2015 will go to the home and away legs (which we had recently as stage 3) and compete for the 'OFC Nations Cup'
Given the logistical challenges of aligning the qualifying processes of two different confederations they may decide to simply retain a two-legged Asia/Oceania play-off. That would still satisfy Asia and Oceania's desire for a slightly easier qualifying path, but not our own desire for more games. The other Oceania nations might consider that rolling the dice in a two-legged play-off would give them a better chance (and maybe cost less) than competing in a longer round of Asian qualifying (if they make it that far) so might push for that option.
Personally I think the best thing for NZ and Oceania football is that the Oceania qualifier joins the final AFC qualifying round for automatic qualification. Everything else [junior football etc] retains the current system. This prevents additional costs imposed on the Pacific Nations and gives NZ an easier road to the youth WCs than by going through Asia. However, FIFA might say that if you want the combined last qualifying place the 2 confederations have to merge at all levels - Asia/Oceania Confederation.
While it may be a good thing to join Asia in the present for more meaningful competitive international fixtures, TV deals and sponsorships, the negative impact of joining Asia in the long run might be bigger than anyone anticipates. Asia is a continent with the fastest rising middle class in the world. The rate of growth in areas such as China is astronomical. China is developing faster than many people realise and this middle class transformation means that more kids are going to be able to play football, talented kids will be trained and groomed for professional football, top quality facilities and coaches will be abundant etc etc. The list goes on. Asia is arguably also the fastest developing football continent due to these factors.
Maybe staying in Oceania is the best long term option... but maybe not. It's certainly a debateable topic and the general consensus here seems to be in favour of some form of fusion between Oceania and Asia. It would be great to watch competitive international fixtures and it would be fantastic for our national team, but will we qualify for a world cup again 20 years down the track? Who knows.
Given the logistical challenges of aligning the qualifying processes of two different confederations they may decide to simply retain a two-legged Asia/Oceania play-off. That would still satisfy Asia and Oceania's desire for a slightly easier qualifying path, but not our own desire for more games. The other Oceania nations might consider that rolling the dice in a two-legged play-off would give them a better chance (and maybe cost less) than competing in a longer round of Asian qualifying (if they make it that far) so might push for that option.
Given the logistical challenges of aligning the qualifying processes of two different confederations they may decide to simply retain a two-legged Asia/Oceania play-off. That would still satisfy Asia and Oceania's desire for a slightly easier qualifying path, but not our own desire for more games. The other Oceania nations might consider that rolling the dice in a two-legged play-off would give them a better chance (and maybe cost less) than competing in a longer round of Asian qualifying (if they make it that far) so might push for that option.
Besides, as someone said, isn't the TV rights sooooo lucrative that it pays for itself? The island nations, if they got there, would have nothing to worry about...
While it may be a good thing to join Asia in the present for more meaningful competitive international fixtures, TV deals and sponsorships, the negative impact of joining Asia in the long run might be bigger than anyone anticipates. Asia is a continent with the fastest rising middle class in the world. The rate of growth in areas such as China is astronomical. China is developing faster than many people realise and this middle class transformation means that more kids are going to be able to play football, talented kids will be trained and groomed for professional football, top quality facilities and coaches will be abundant etc etc. The list goes on. Asia is arguably also the fastest developing football continent due to these factors.
Maybe staying in Oceania is the best long term option... but maybe not. It's certainly a debateable topic and the general consensus here seems to be in favour of some form of fusion between Oceania and Asia. It would be great to watch competitive international fixtures and it would be fantastic for our national team, but will we qualify for a world cup again 20 years down the track? Who knows.
Are the TV rights that much though? I know that they support the big league club teams like crazy in many parts of Asia (Man U, Liverpool, Barcelona, Real Madrid etc etc), but I don't know if they are as bothered with their home teams. I remember when I was in Hong Kong and there was a Man U game on, there were thousands of "fans" watching the game on the street and in bars but aparently the support for Hong Kong club teams is really poor. Probably quite similar to Nz then.
FIFA will not allow the Pacific Games to be used for the purposes of WCQ because teams from Asia are involved. This was the case in 2011 and hence why the OFC Nations Cup was resurrected as a tournament in Honiara.
If the Pacific Games do not allow teams from Asia, then the games can be used for WCQ. In 2007, there were no teams from Asia and thus, the Pacific Games was 'stage 2' to find the 4 teams that went on to what is effectively 'stage 3' and play home and away for the 'OFC Nations Cup'.
If they revert back to what they did in Samoa in 2007 and do not allow teams from Asia to compete, the 4 finalists at the Pacific Games in 2015 will go to the home and away legs (which we had recently as stage 3) and compete for the 'OFC Nations Cup'
Quite right. Forgot about that and for some reason thought the PAcific Games was used for our 1st round.
Are the TV rights that much though? I know that they support the big league club teams like crazy in many parts of Asia (Man U, Liverpool, Barcelona, Real Madrid etc etc), but I don't know if they are as bothered with their home teams. I remember when I was in Hong Kong and there was a Man U game on, there were thousands of "fans" watching the game on the street and in bars but aparently the support for Hong Kong club teams is really poor. Probably quite similar to Nz then.
While it may be a good thing to join Asia in the present for more meaningful competitive international fixtures, TV deals and sponsorships, the negative impact of joining Asia in the long run might be bigger than anyone anticipates. Asia is a continent with the fastest rising middle class in the world. The rate of growth in areas such as China is astronomical. China is developing faster than many people realise and this middle class transformation means that more kids are going to be able to play football, talented kids will be trained and groomed for professional football, top quality facilities and coaches will be abundant etc etc. The list goes on. Asia is arguably also the fastest developing football continent due to these factors.
Maybe staying in Oceania is the best long term option... but maybe not. It's certainly a debateable topic and the general consensus here seems to be in favour of some form of fusion between Oceania and Asia. It would be great to watch competitive international fixtures and it would be fantastic for our national team, but will we qualify for a world cup again 20 years down the track? Who knows.
To me, that isn't even close to being a negative. We are simply not going to improve by staying in Oceania.
How many guys do we have playing overseas now vs 6 years ago.
How is the state of our womens game and where they rank and perform.
How many WCs do we attend. Yes some are via a mulligan directly qualification but we have made one off our own back.
The only thing not going forward and getting better is our national leagues.
Personally I think the best thing for NZ and Oceania football is that the Oceania qualifier joins the final AFC qualifying round for automatic qualification. Everything else [junior football etc] retains the current system. This prevents additional costs imposed on the Pacific Nations and gives NZ an easier road to the youth WCs than by going through Asia. However, FIFA might say that if you want the combined last qualifying place the 2 confederations have to merge at all levels - Asia/Oceania Confederation.
I suspect if we join it would have to be fully. Youth, confeds cup etc would all be through asia. I doubt we would get into third round automatically. Into the second round with all other Oceania nations into the first round would be more realistic. The idea is to get more meaningful games and improve so that would actually be better for us than being automatically into the third round. If we got to the third round we would then also be in a much better position to compete because we would have had all those extra games of preparation.
The only 'proposal' on the table is to do with OFC champion joining AFC final stage of WC qualfication. Talk of NZ moving to Asia, or OFC merging with AFC is unlikely to happen in a long, long time.
The only 'proposal' on the table is to do with OFC champion joining AFC final stage of WC qualfication. Talk of NZ moving to Asia, or OFC merging with AFC is unlikely to happen in a long, long time.
Did you actually read the article or just the headline
Did you actually read the article or just the headline
No where in the article does it talk about the confederations merging. Only the WC 1/2 spots.
No where in the article does it talk about the confederations merging. Only the WC 1/2 spots.
Where in the article does it say it is only the the playoff? It doesn't. It is preliminary talks but there are several hints it is a wider merger. Direct quotes like...
Sheikh Salman, who also hinted at revamping the World Cup qualifying format in Asia, said they had plenty of time to discuss any possible slot shifts with the 11 nation OFC.
"This is a decision that should be taken by FIFA as well about the half slot, but we will wait, we have time, but this is something that we should look at for the future," he said.
"So far this is just in the beginning stages. I think we need to look at the two continents as a whole, not just by inviting ... because what is going to be left from Oceania."
The world governing body's president Sepp Blatter suggested earlier this month he wanted the playoff system scrapped which appears to support the AFC-OFC move.
The 77-year-old Swiss has also said recently he wanted more World Cup places for Asia and Africa.
Did you read it?
Wouldn't it be nice to beat the Aussie's though... Imagine knocking Australia out of the World Cup through if we were to qualify through Asia. Imagine the chaos that would unfold across the ditch. They would be so mad they'd probably kick the Nix out of the A-league though.
Given the logistical challenges of aligning the qualifying processes of two different confederations they may decide to simply retain a two-legged Asia/Oceania play-off. That would still satisfy Asia and Oceania's desire for a slightly easier qualifying path, but not our own desire for more games. The other Oceania nations might consider that rolling the dice in a two-legged play-off would give them a better chance (and maybe cost less) than competing in a longer round of Asian qualifying (if they make it that far) so might push for that option.
Sepp has said he wants to do away with playoffs so this could be part of that process
Very few have mentioned what imo seems like the biggest hurdle, which is what CONCACAF and CONMEBOL have to say about all of this.
Do CONMEBOL have one fewer spot next time, because Brazil won't get direct entry as host? If that is the case then the confederation is even more likely to resist any change to the status quo. Either way they're not going to give up their half spot without a fight, and that seems like the bigger problem here, surely?
From what I gather a "merger" or similar of Asia/oceania won't negatively affect CONCACAF and CONMEBOL. In the article above, the AFC boss talks about combining our .5 with their 4.5 to make 5 full spots coming from an AFC/OFC combo. If the OFC winner joins the AFC series in the second round or the like then that gives us competitve/winnable football with less trave - win/win. If OFC merges with AFC to become Asia Pacific FC then it works too. At least it is now being talked about seriously.
Very few have mentioned what imo seems like the biggest hurdle, which is what CONCACAF and CONMEBOL have to say about all of this.
Do CONMEBOL have one fewer spot next time, because Brazil won't get direct entry as host? If that is the case then the confederation is even more likely to resist any change to the status quo. Either way they're not going to give up their half spot without a fight, and that seems like the bigger problem here, surely?
Guess there is a question about who would approve this change (AFC/OFC or the entire ExCo). If it is the whole ExCo then you'd think CONCACAF and CONMEBOL would be against it as they would be losing the chance to playoff with weaker AFC/OFC sides.
Lets just host the FIFA World Cup and get a free qualification then.
No where in the article does it talk about the confederations merging. Only the WC 1/2 spots.
Where in the article does it say it is only the the playoff? It doesn't. It is preliminary talks but there are several hints it is a wider merger. Direct quotes like...
Sheikh Salman, who also hinted at revamping the World Cup qualifying format in Asia, said they had plenty of time to discuss any possible slot shifts with the 11 nation OFC.
"This is a decision that should be taken by FIFA as well about the half slot, but we will wait, we have time, but this is something that we should look at for the future," he said.
"So far this is just in the beginning stages. I think we need to look at the two continents as a whole, not just by inviting ... because what is going to be left from Oceania."
and...
The world governing body's president Sepp Blatter suggested earlier this month he wanted the playoff system scrapped which appears to support the AFC-OFC move.
The 77-year-old Swiss has also said recently he wanted more World Cup places for Asia and Africa.
Did you read it?
1: The Asian and Oceania football confederations have opened discussions about combining World Cup slots to improve their qualification chances at future tournaments, AFC President Sheikh Salman said.
2:"We had the Australians in but I think we should look at how we can combine our slots together," the Bahraini said when asked if he wanted New Zealand to join the AFC. "This is something that we are discussing with Oceania and hopefully there will be something on how those legs are to be played. Because geographically we are much closer."
3: The world governing body's president Sepp Blatter suggested earlier this month he wanted the playoff system scrapped which appears to support the AFC-OFC move
4:So far this is just in the beginning stages. I think we need to look at the two continents as a whole, not just by inviting ... because what is going to be left from Oceania (i.e. that have not talked about confederations merging)
I can tell you, I read the article. You obviously did not.
Very few have mentioned what imo seems like the biggest hurdle, which is what CONCACAF and CONMEBOL have to say about all of this.
Do CONMEBOL have one fewer spot next time, because Brazil won't get direct entry as host? If that is the case then the confederation is even more likely to resist any change to the status quo. Either way they're not going to give up their half spot without a fight, and that seems like the bigger problem here, surely?
They won't be giving up their half spot at all, I have no idea where you got that idea from. OFC's half spot and AFC's half spot will be combined into a full spot for Asia/Oceania. The only way that it will impact CONCACAF and CONMEBOL is that they will have to play each other to find who goes through to the World Cup, which is exactly what happened in 2009.
sure they'll argue that it is a harder game for them, but then there is also less travel for a playoff game in Asia or Oceania. But since when has FIFA listened to "it's too hard"?
sure they'll argue that it is a harder game for them, but then there is also less travel for a playoff game in Asia or Oceania. But since when has FIFA listened to "it's too hard"?
The rate of growth in areas such as China is astronomical. China is developing faster than many people realise and this middle class transformation means that more kids are going to be able to play football, talented kids will be trained and groomed for professional football, top quality facilities and coaches will be abundant etc etc. The list goes on.
Re China:
Yes, the rate of growth is incredible, but their grassroots football is practically non-existent. There is no Saturday football, no junior club system. The success of Guangzhou Evergrande in the AFC, and the increase of the profile of the Chinese Super League (since they moved to deal with corruption), has meant that football in China is in a much better space. However, until organised grassroots football improves, I don't think we'll see the same dramatic improvements in their national side. They are still drawing on a relatively small pool of professional players.
The problem with grassroots football, especially at a junior level, is that people don't have time to play and train, kids especially. Until the whole education system is restructured (a whole other subject), I just can't see this changing quickly.
Another issue is that with the increased profile of the CSL, and especially with all the money in Chinese football right now, there isn't a whole lot of reasons for local players to look at overseas moves - and I think this will slow down the development of the very best players.
Re moving to Asia generally:
I'm all for it. Whether OFC is absorbed into Asia or whether the best Oceania team enters into Asia's qualification process at some point, more regular football against better quality opposition is only good for us I believe.
No where in the article does it talk about the confederations merging. Only the WC 1/2 spots.
Where in the article does it say it is only the the playoff? It doesn't. It is preliminary talks but there are several hints it is a wider merger. Direct quotes like...
Sheikh Salman, who also hinted at revamping the World Cup qualifying format in Asia, said they had plenty of time to discuss any possible slot shifts with the 11 nation OFC.
"This is a decision that should be taken by FIFA as well about the half slot, but we will wait, we have time, but this is something that we should look at for the future," he said.
"So far this is just in the beginning stages. I think we need to look at the two continents as a whole, not just by inviting ... because what is going to be left from Oceania."
and...
The world governing body's president Sepp Blatter suggested earlier this month he wanted the playoff system scrapped which appears to support the AFC-OFC move.
The 77-year-old Swiss has also said recently he wanted more World Cup places for Asia and Africa.
Did you read it?
1: The Asian and Oceania football confederations have opened discussions about combining World Cup slots to improve their qualification chances at future tournaments, AFC President Sheikh Salman said.
2:"We had the Australians in but I think we should look at how we can combine our slots together," the Bahraini said when asked if he wanted New Zealand to join the AFC. "This is something that we are discussing with Oceania and hopefully there will be something on how those legs are to be played. Because geographically we are much closer."
3: The world governing body's president Sepp Blatter suggested earlier this month he wanted the playoff system scrapped which appears to support the AFC-OFC move
4:So far this is just in the beginning stages. I think we need to look at the two continents as a whole, not just by inviting ... because what is going to be left from Oceania (i.e. that have not talked about confederations merging)
I can tell you, I read the article. You obviously did not.
