All Whites, Ferns, and other international teams

Latest fifa ranking

52 replies · 2,660 views
over 17 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
Latest fifa ranking
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over 17 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
all whites have falling to 113 in fifa ranking
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over 17 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
Hmmm.
 
2 reasons.
 
1. African World cup qualifiers have been going on. So they are all gaining extra points and jumping above us.
 
2. Our world cup qualifying points from 2004 are starting to drop out of the 4 year period where points count in our ranking.

If we build it, they will come...

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over 17 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
Dont forget the Asian World Cup qualifiers. As Lvplf1 points out in another thread, quite a bit of movement there as well
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over 17 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
LondonChris wrote:
Hmmm.
 
2 reasons.
 
1. African World cup qualifiers have been going on. So they are all gaining extra points and jumping above us.
 
2. Our world cup qualifying points from 2004 are starting to drop out of the 4 year period where points count in our ranking.
 
shouldn't you be planning things??
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over 17 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
tigers wrote:
LondonChris wrote:
Hmmm.
 
2 reasons.
 
1. African World cup qualifiers have been going on. So they are all gaining extra points and jumping above us.
 
2. Our world cup qualifying points from 2004 are starting to drop out of the 4 year period where points count in our ranking.
 
shouldn't you be planning things??
 
Well I am travelling overseas next week, but I think it is a case mistaken identity.

If we build it, they will come...

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over 17 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
apologies London chris,
 
after a few winres  i'd muddled you up with leeds chris
 
have a good trip (even though i clearly haven't got a clue who i'm talking to this time   )
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over 17 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
I'm now tempted to change my nick to LeicesterChris to confuse you even more...
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over 17 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
Hello!

This is my first post on Yellow Fever.

Maybe this is old news for some of you, but New Caledonia will overtake New Zealand in the September rankings: link.

With two wins against New Caledonia in September, New Zealand could break into the top 50 but only for a short while, because in December the three World Cup qualifiers will go from 1 to 0.5 and you'll only have three matches in the last 12 matches, with the points divided by 5 - FIFA virtually adding 2 defeats to your record.

Mr. Glyn Taylor has informed me the All Whites are not contemplating scheduling other matches. From a FIFA ranking point of view your best choice would be to play Macedonia on October 11th, then Burkina Faso on the 15th. However, that's a logistic nightmare. Perhaps you could invite a team over to New Zealand for two matches or go abroad. Saudi Arabia is available on both these dates, but if your looking for an easier opponent, there are other 76 countries availabe. Here's a top 30 based on FIFA rankings points New Zealand would get for a win:

[code]Saudi Arabia                   387.6
Bahrain                        341.7
Zambia                         336.6
Iraq                           331.5
Panama                         300.9
Oman                           283.05
China PR                       280.5
Syria                          257.55
Thailand                       247.35
Jordan                         229.5
Guyana                         221.85
Kuwait                         209.1
New Caledonia                  206.55
Barbados                       204
Hong Kong                      201.45
Kyrgyzstan                     193.8
Bermuda                        191.25
St. Vincent and the Grenadines 188.7
Singapore                      181.05
Indonesia                      163.2
Antigua and Barbuda            160.65
Fiji                           160.65
Grenada                        155.55
Eritrea                        150.45
Puerto Rico                    142.8
Yemen PDR                      142.8
India                          142.8
Lebanon                        132.6
Netherlands Antilles           130.05
Maldives                       127.5
[/code]

Taking into account distances, your best option is New Caledonia - although it could be boring to play them 4 times in a row. Then there Fiji, but you play them in November.

Then there's a group of countries: Thailand, Hong Kong, Indonesia and Singapore. With the exception of Hong Kong, all will play in the AFF Suzuki Cup in December 2008 and could use two friendlies against New Zealand as preparation.

I thinks it's a win-win situation. If you lose, your ranking won't be affected. If you win, you'll have a higher FIFA ranking.
Edgar2008-08-15 19:57:14
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over 17 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
Wow. that is a bit of analysis you have done. Good point about having nothing to lose. It would be great to get an extra couple of games...but I doubt it will happen.

If we build it, they will come...

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over 17 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
Why? Financial reasons?
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over 17 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
Oh, I see. Thanks.
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over 17 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
I appreciate the analysis.
There is nothing to lose. Debt excepted.
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over 17 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
Hopefully that will change, if we make the confederations cup then NZ soccer will recieve appearence money which will help.
 
If we make the world cup.... well then we'd be flush and friendlies would be a definate possibility.
 
When i say fluush i mean in relation to our current position and financial history, which is rather poor.
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over 17 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
Just realised, if we beat New Caledonia on Wednesday night the All Whites will be ranked 48th in the world in the October release based on fifa points at the moment
 
We would be on 583 points.

If we build it, they will come...

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over 17 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
You would be 51st actually on FIFA points at the moment.

Morocco 643
Tunisia 624
Finland 622
Iran 617
Senegal 615
Mali 587

still above you.

FIFA Ranking: October 2008 preview (II) -> link.

FIFA Ranking: October 2008 probable ranking (II) -> link.
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over 17 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
The reality is that all those countries are light years ahead of us in terms of ability.
Just goes to show what a joke the FIFA rankings are.
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over 17 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
The question is who are Honduras, FYR Macedonia & Lithuania playing and were two of these to lose, then NZ would just scrape into the top 50.  However, playing Fiji soon, ought to add WCQ level points in, so we may lurch into the top 50, just depends upon what drops out from 4 years ago.
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over 17 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
You can overtake Honduras, but Lithuania and Macedonia are out of reach.

These are the countries that will have less than 583 points with a loss, but more than 583 with a win:

Honduras
Saudi Arabia
Korea Republic
Moldova
Slovakia
Latvia
Belgium
Wales
Hungary
Peru

And these are the matches, with the predicted results using the ELORatings:

Russia - Wales 1
Honduras - Jamaica 1
Sweden - Hungary 1
Moldova - Israel X
Slovenia - Slovakia X
Turkey - Belgium 1
Latvia - Greece X
Peru - Argentina 2
United Arab Emirates - Saudi Arabia X
Korea DPR - Korea Republic X

If Honduras lose against Jamaica at home (perhaps even a draw), you'll be 51st, but that's it - you can't go higher than this.
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over 17 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
I suspect Honduras will defeat Jamaica.  I can't see FYR Macedonia beating the Netherlands on Wednesday and Austria seem to be on form for their game against Lithuania tomorrow.
You're right, almost top 50 but not quite.
I will have do a spreadsheet to predict the impact of WCQ points against Fiji in November.
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over 17 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
Just as a side note, Lithuania beat Romania 3-0 away on the weekend, so they are a pretty good chance against Austria too.
Macedonians beat Scotland on the weekend, and have troubled big teams in the past including England, and the Netherlands in the previous qualifying cycles.
As for the Fiji game in November you mention, I don't think it will be played given the logistical issues involved and that it won't change the situation in Oceania.el grapadura2008-09-10 10:29:06
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over 17 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
The big question for me is how far up the ladder we will go during the WCQ round.  There are other qualifiers going on so its hard to tell  Yet if the Fiji match goes ahead WCQs earn 2.5 of a friendly.  Another 73 points would be handy.
If but briefly, NZ reaches the top 50, we ought to export every able bodied play to the UK to try out for a club, under their residence permit rules.
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over 17 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
Lithuania 2 Austria 0 last week, Honduras beat Jamaica 2-0, Macedonia 1 - Netherlands 2
So is it 52nd for NZ?
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over 17 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
It's 54th actually, because Belgium drew Turkey and Saudi Arabia won against UAE.

Here's the probable ranking -> link.
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over 17 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
edward l wrote:
The big question for me is how far up the ladder we will go during the WCQ round.  There are other qualifiers going on so its hard to tell  Yet if the Fiji match goes ahead WCQs earn 2.5 of a friendly.  Another 73 points would be handy.


73 points? How did you get that value?

Even if you win against Fiji you'll go down in the December rankings, because you'll only have 3 matches in the last 12 months, but FIFA will divide your points by 5 instead of 3, as 5 is the minimum.
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over 17 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
73?  Multiple all of these"
3 for a win
0.85 strength of confederation
2.5 World Cup Qualifying Match
0.57 strength of opponent (200-143 ranking for Fiji divided by 100)
100 FIFA factor
0.2 divide by five (minimum games)
Total 73
 
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over 17 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
Something's wrong ... this is the third time I try to post.

OK, I see now. I was using 134 for Fiji's ranking - that's their predicted ranking for November according to my software.
With 134, it will be 84 extra points and a total of 507. That's about 60th place.
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over 17 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
OK officially we are 54th with 584 points. Up by 57 places (best move yet) and gained 268 in the October FIFA rankings. We are 20 places behind Australia who is at 34th place.

Damn I was close.

When I calculated in April for the prediction without all the match schedule changing but against the same teams. I wasn't that far off. Of course, that calculation result wouldn't account for the drop off in the months difference four years previously. So I missed 38.5 points to be counted in all the rescheduling and different months. But same teams, different timing.

I calculated NZ to be 541.5 points at approximately 58th placed on the FIFA ranking.

However since Edgar is using software and posting blog information etc, I haven't bothered with any new calculation, especially with changing Fiji date thrice and the NC games also.

But I'm glad at the blog reference that Edgar uses, it saves me a lot of trouble predicting the point dropped per month and point gained/lossed per month and guessing placing and ranking by points left over.

http://www.fifa.com/worldfootball/ranking/lastranking/gender=m/fullranking.html#confederation=0&rank=174&page=2

A win WCQ match against Fiji in Nov would be very useful.

100(3x1x((200-138)/100)x((0.85+0.85)/2))=158.1 points.

Our rankings for December starts to look even better.

100% to 50% Points dropped between October-November 2007=(28+33)x.5= 30.5 Points
50% to 30% Points dropped between October-November 2006=(0+0)x.2= 0 Points
30% to 20% Points dropped between October-November 2005=(-16+-20)x.1= -3.6 Points
20% to 0% Points dropped between October-November 2004 = (-5+-9) x.2 = -2.8 Points.

Total points dropped=24.1 points.

158.1-24.1=134 points with a win against Fiji.

A win against Fiji in Nov means that in the Dec FIFA rankings it will give us 134 points added to our existing 584 points giving us a total of 718 points. On the October rankings that would throw us into 36th place taking Chile and being one behind Australia. Of course with the other matches we will vary between 38th and 36th place.

At the moment we are top contenders for the FIFA best mover of the year award but the calculation for the best index after getting the end of the year points multiple by the points earned is not given. But since we started at our lowest ranking ever and moved to our best ranking ever by Dec, this would mean we must be in the picture for the top three places.

So here's hoping that Ricki doesn't experiment with Fiji. We need to crack the 50th place mark in order to open UK football access to our best players. We have plenty of time in the friendlies later on to blood some players. I am not comfortable in an away game even if it is in Samoa.AllWhitebelievr2008-10-09 07:28:22
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over 17 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
Darn, correct me if I'm wrong, the work permit rules for the UK automatically allow football players from top 50 nations.  Can anyone confirm this??
Still around 50 is a nice position to be in.
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over 17 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
I was hoping for a flood of trialists heading to Europe.
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over 17 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
Does NZ have to play in the FIFA window or can we get away with summer internationals, say against Pacific sides, without our European players?
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over 17 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
We can play whenever we want. Whether players will be available or not is a different question

Allegedly

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over 17 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
OK officially we are 54th with 584 points. Up by 57 places (best move yet) and gained 268 in the October FIFA rankings. We are 20 places behind Australia who is at 34th place.

Damn I was close.

When I calculated in April for the prediction without all the match schedule changing but against the same teams. I wasn't that far off. Of course, that calculation result wouldn't account for the drop off in the months difference four years previously. So I missed 38.5 points to be counted in all the rescheduling and different months. But same teams, different timing.

I calculated NZ to be 541.5 points at approximately 58th placed on the FIFA ranking.

However since Edgar is using software and posting blog information etc, I haven't bothered with any new calculation, especially with changing Fiji date thrice and the NC games also.

But I'm glad at the blog reference that Edgar uses, it saves me a lot of trouble predicting the point dropped per month and point gained/lossed per month and guessing placing and ranking by points left over.

http://www.fifa.com/worldfootball/ranking/lastranking/gender=m/fullranking.html#confederation=0&rank=174&page=2

A win WCQ match against Fiji in Nov would be very useful.

100(3x1x((200-138)/100)x((0.85+0.85)/2))=158.1 points.

Our rankings for December starts to look even better.

100% to 50% Points dropped between October-November 2007=(28+33)x.5= 30.5 Points
50% to 30% Points dropped between October-November 2006=(0+0)x.2= 0 Points
30% to 20% Points dropped between October-November 2005=(-16+-20)x.1= -3.6 Points
20% to 0% Points dropped between October-November 2004 = (-5+-9) x.2 = -2.8 Points.

Total points dropped=24.1 points.

158.1-24.1=134 points with a win against Fiji.

A win against Fiji in Nov means that in the Dec FIFA rankings it will give us 134 points added to our existing 584 points giving us a total of 718 points. On the October rankings that would throw us into 36th place taking Chile and being one behind Australia. Of course with the other matches we will vary between 38th and 36th place.

At the moment we are top contenders for the FIFA best mover of the year award but the calculation for the best index after getting the end of the year points multiple by the points earned is not given. But since we started at our lowest ranking ever and moved to our best ranking ever by Dec, this would mean we must be in the picture for the top three places.

So here's hoping that Ricki doesn't experiment with Fiji. We need to crack the 50th place mark in order to open UK football access to our best players. We have plenty of time in the friendlies later on to blood some players. I am not comfortable in an away game even if it is in Samoa.[/QUOTE]

I stand by my previous post:

[QUOTE=Edgar]Something's wrong ... this is the third time I try to post.

OK, I see now. I was using 134 for Fiji's ranking - that's their predicted ranking for November according to my software.
With 134, it will be 84 extra points and a total of 507. That's about 60th place.


Without being pedantic :), there are some errors in your post:

You computed the Fiji points as if it were a friendly. You need to multiply the total by 2.5 -> 395.25

I'm not 100% sure, but I think you forgot the 5 games rule enforced by FIFA. When the December ranking is published, you'll only have 3 games in the last 12 months as the two Vanuatu games will be dropped. That's why you needed to play two games in October - in order to improve your FIFA Ranking. But, as Hard News said - friendlies are a fantasy, as the FA is currently in debt.

See Teams in need of matches for the November 2008 FIFA Ranking.
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over 17 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
Oh made the same mistake again. Thats what happens with cut and paste.

It's been calculated already in as the Vanuatu games drop 50% from October-November 2007 with a 30.5 point lost.

So it is 395.25 points for Fiji win.

395.25 points divided by 5 games. (only 1/5 of those points counted)

i.e. 395.25/5=79.05 new points added for the two months.

Existing 584 points over the 4 years subtracts 24.1 dropped points over 4 years.

i.e.584-24.1=559.9 old points in the four year period

559.9+79.05=638.95 total final FIFA points.

or another way of looking at it i.e. [79.05-24.1=54.95 point difference over the two months

638.95 points will gives us about roughly 46th place on the current October 2008 rankings.

So mid 40s FIFA ranking in the table. Roughly 46th place.

OK, . . . friendly game error sorted, . . .
. . ..5 game rule sorted.. . .

Yup, I'm now sorted with my predictions.

Edgar wrote:
Something's wrong ... this is the third time I try to post.

OK, I see now. I was using 134 for Fiji's ranking - that's their predicted ranking for November according to my software.
With 134, it will be 84 extra points and a total of 507. That's about 60th place.


But I think now that you have mistakes in your calculation, Edgar.

Where you get 84 points added?

I got 79.05 added points and 24.1 dropped points giving 54.95 points added in the next two months.

54.95 added to existing 584 points gives me 638.95. So my total for December is 638.95 points so how did you get 507 points?

At the moment we are on 584 points. How can you add 84 points and get 507 points?

I think you have some mix up. So 60th place can't be right.

We don't drop points that much. The two Vanuatu games only loses 50% of the points so it like we drop points for one whole game.

But if we win against Fiji, we be up on points as Fiji is higher placed than Vanuatu. So we shouldn't lose points but rather gain points.AllWhitebelievr2008-10-10 00:45:48
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over 17 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
FIFA Ranking: December 2008 detailed point totals.

Gotta go now. My second son just saw the light of day. :)
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over 17 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
Just had to logon to say thanks for all the work, congrats on the new son Edgar and hopefully he will have a better time with Excel 2007 than I am having.
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over 17 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
edward l wrote:
Just had to logon to say thanks for all the work, congrats on the new son Edgar and hopefully he will have a better time with Excel 2007 than I am having.


Thanks! :)

He's one month old now and giving us sleepless nights of course :)

Down to 84th in the December 2008 FIFA Ranking.
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over 17 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
My last comment touches on the age old question.  Is there anything better than Excel?
Since Excel 2007 came out, I no longer have all the same key strokes and 17 years of learning have evaporated.  I still have a copy of Lotus and an open souces 'virtual' excel spreadsheet with the same key strokes, which opens and saves as Excel 2007.
What other spreadsheet software is out there that you are still using?
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